[SoTired]

I did a little analysis from 150,000 hands I have and 58% of the 1N openers have a 4-card major. The data does not include opening 1N on semi-balanced hands. I have about 4.1% of all hands open 1N.

In cross analyzing between actual results and dbl-dummy results, I have previously found that studies like this achieve similar results either way, with the dbl-dummy results slightly better for the defense than actual results.

[han]

SoTired, on Sep 3 2007, 03:12 PM, said:

I did a little analysis from 150,000 hands I have and 58% of the 1N openers have a 4-card major. The data does not include opening 1N on semi-balanced hands. I have about 4.1% of all hands open 1N.

In cross analyzing between actual results and dbl-dummy results, I have previously found that studies like this achieve similar results either way, with the dbl-dummy results slightly better for the defense than actual results.

You should take into account that we are 4-4 in the majors. This decreases the chance that partner has a 4-card major. I thought it was slightly below 50% but I doubt that this factor changes the odds by more than 8%.

[cherdano]

A primitive simulation (doesn't allow for 5422, 6m322 shapes with opener, upgrades etc.) says a 15-17 1N opener has a 4-card major opposite THIS hand 50.5% of the time.

Arg, just noticed that the "balanced" function of Deal excludes 5-card majors. Allowing 5-card majors, the likelyhood of a fit is 56.1%.

This post has been edited by cherdano: 2007-September-03, 15:54

[TheoKole]

I would definetely bid 2 ♣ with regular partnership. We play full Garbage Stay. with short ♣, ♦ or ♥ over 1NT and short ♣ over 2NT.

After a 2 ♦ answer to Stay. I would bid 2 ♥, which is weak with better or equal ♥'s and ♠'s and short ♦.

If partner is 3,2,3,5 distribution, he will correct to 3 ♣.

Theo