[Walddk]

Two instructive hands picked up during an invisible vugraph broadcast today. I suspect that the hands were prepared for the occasion (a celebrity event). Can you do better than some of the declarers I watched?

Please bear in mind that this is the B/I Forum, so advanced or better players are kindly requested not to post unless they use hidden text. Thank you.

1.

Scoring: IMP

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As South you are in 3NT and West leads ♠10. Plan the play.

.....

2.

Scoring: IMP

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You are now in the excellent 6♥. How do you play the hand when West leads

- A small spade.
- A small club.

Roland

[ralph23]

Spoiler

On #1, if you play the Q or J on trick one, you will be sorely disappointed if either (1) East has the King and is clever enough to hold it up so as to deny you an entry to dummy or (2) West has the King and is clever enough to play it when you lead a small ♠ to dummy later on, in an attempt to get to your long ♣. Just play low... you are always going to make 2♠ tricks. They will hold up their ♣ Ace until the 2nd round, and without the ♠ entry in dummy you are cooked.

Your ♥s are sturdy, so when they regain the lead with the ♣Ace and lead one, just don't play your ♥Ace on top of thin air, and you'll lose two large ♥s, the ♠ King and the ♣Ace.

So many contracts go down because declarer played TOO FAST at trick one.

[ralph23]

Spoiler

on #2: A good hand for FA (Finesseaholics Anonymous) members and should-be-members.

Don't finesse. If you do, then attend several more FA meetings.

Just play your black Ace on either lead, pull trumps and then play off your other 3 black winners, whatever they are. Then play the Queen of ♣ and let them win it. The hand is stripped and they must lead either a black card (giving you a ruff-and-sluff) or a ♦ (giving you a free finesse).

[ralph23]

sceptic, on Aug 27 2007, 08:49 AM, said:

up with the J spades( not sure what is technically best ) ( will cover the K with Ace if necessasry) and if it wins play on !C next forcing ace out, this guarentees 9 tricks

How will you get back to dummy after the ♣ Ace is gone? Assuming they know how to give the count signal, so as to take their Ace on the second ♣ round....

[elwood913]

1 ) Play low from the dummy and win the first trick with the ♠A. You now have a guaranteed entry with a spade, though it might take you 2 tries, but you can suffer 2 heart leads as long as you don't put up the A til they play an honor. So start clubs at trick 2 until the A is played, and then a spade when you get back in. If you lose to the ♠K you'll get back in a second time with a ♥ before they can run them, and the next ♠ will get you to the board.

2 ) On the club lead, if you are worried about your winners getting ruffed, and worried about the end play (you want a ♦ lead when you eventually lose a trick) just cash the ♣A on the first trick. E is not void. Then trumps and ♠'s and you can still exit with the ♣ loser and get the hoped for ♦ lead.

[ralph23]

sceptic, on Aug 27 2007, 08:55 AM, said:

sorry will cover the Jack with the ace whether it wins or not and play up to the Q

Wait, so you are playing the Jack on trick one from dummy, and then, you are playing the Ace from your hand, regardless of whether your RHO plays the King or not???

Why?? That seems very peculiar. I can't be understanding you correctly, that is just too strange.

And how, again, are you getting back to dummy if the King does not pop up on trick one? With the Queen of ♠? Is there not a problem with that, if the King is still at large?

nb -- maybe your RHO is smarter than he looks!!!

[vuroth]

Walddk, on Aug 27 2007, 08:05 AM, said:

1. As South you are in 3NT and West leads ♠10. Plan the play.

2.  You are now in the excellent 6♥. How do you play the hand when West leads

- A small spade.
- A small club.

1. win with the Ace, play on in clubs, fearing a hold-up play in clubs. The QJ of spades will be my entry to the clubs if opponents hold up.

2. b ) small club - claim EDIT - oops, had north and sout reversed. See a) I guess.
a) small spade - draw trump. play 3 rounds of spades, A of clubs, then exit with Q of clubs. Whichever opponent who wins is endplayed in Diamonds.

[goobers]

I'm not sure what difference it makes regarding west's lead on hand 2. Can't I always strip the hand and throw them in with CQ no matter which black suit they choose to lead?

[Walddk]

goobers, on Aug 27 2007, 06:46 PM, said:

I'm not sure what difference it makes regarding west's lead on hand 2. Can't I always strip the hand and throw them in with CQ no matter which black suit they choose to lead?

Indeed. I just wanted to test you. The lead makes no difference.

Roland

[gwnn]

I wonder what Hand 2's best line is at MP (the actual scoring of the deal in question), assuming most tables will indeed be in 6♥.

[ralph23]

gwnn, on Aug 27 2007, 12:53 PM, said:

I wonder what Hand 2's best line is at MP (the actual scoring of the deal in question), assuming most tables will indeed be in 6♥.

The suggested line makes 6 100% of the time (assuming the opening lead does not get ruffed!)

To make 7, you must win both the club and a diamond finesse (2-way finesse). A priori, that is only 25%. So trying for 7 would only be appropriate if you need to "shoot" and get a cold top....

Also remember, some people may/will go down at 6 (yes, that's hard to believe, but Roland apparently saw it happen!). Maybe they were shooting !!!

[gwnn]

Of course I know that. What I was wondering about is something like this. Say we know that about 90% of the field is in 6♥. Now, if we accept that most lads know their bridge and just play the 100% line, they'll all be +980. If we finesse ♣'s and it's offside, we need to "guess" diamonds. But with some sort of tablefeel-experience-general wisdom-talent sort of thing, I'm sure the ♦ guess is more than 50%. It's obviously impossible to count the hand on normal distributions, but that's still a possibility at trick 1, and this is only the rational approach. So if we could guarantee that our ♦ "guess" is something like 55+% and 90% of the field will indeed score +980, it's a good idea to try for that overtrick. Am I dreadfully, ludicrously wrong in this thinking?

[pclayton]

ralph23, on Aug 27 2007, 10:50 AM, said:

gwnn, on Aug 27 2007, 12:53 PM, said:

I wonder what Hand 2's best line is at MP (the actual scoring of the deal in question), assuming most tables will indeed be in 6♥.

The suggested line makes 6 100% of the time (assuming the opening lead does not get ruffed!)

To make 7, you must win both the club and a diamond finesse (2-way finesse). A priori, that is only 25%. So trying for 7 would only be appropriate if you need to "shoot" and get a cold top....

Also remember, some people may/will go down at 6 (yes, that's hard to believe, but Roland apparently saw it happen!). Maybe they were shooting !!!

This suggested line is 100% to make exactly 12 tricks. It is zero % to make 13.

Depending on your LHO, the club hook is better than a 50% chance I think. A club lead away from the King is a very common lead against a small slam in a suit.

And, you'll frequently get a direct and inferential count on the hearts and spades anyway, so even if the club loses, there's a good chance you'll find the diamond.

You are also an underdog in the sense that you are playing the hand from the South side. Other tables could have a transfer sequence and 'right-side' it from the North side. Those tables will probably get a minor lead and they'll have a free shot at 13 tricks.

[skjaeran]

pclayton, on Aug 27 2007, 10:33 PM, said:

You are also an underdog in the sense that you are playing the hand from the South side. Other tables could have a transfer sequence and 'right-side' it from the North side. Those tables will probably get a minor lead and they'll have a free shot at 13 tricks.

Where I'm playing everyone would open the south hand with 1♥, so you know the popular contract will be 6♥ by south.

But some will certainly play 6NT by north (not many) and some will receive a ♦ lead and have a free ♣ finesse for the 13th trick.

So playing safely for 12 tricks might yield something below average score.

Thus, depending on my current standing etc. I'd play safely for 12 tricks if a score around 40-45% is OK for me. If not I'd go for the overtrick and take the ♣ finesse.

[ochinko]

gwnn, on Aug 27 2007, 11:31 PM, said:

Say we know that about 90% of the field is in 6♥.

I don't know where you play, but generally it would be very wrong to make this assumption.

Just to give you an example, I played in an 8 boards tourney yesterday where we finished third. First was a pair with a star player in it. Against us that pair made 5♣ +1 where depending on the defense it's +1 or +2. We still lost 4 IMP as there was only one pair that bid 6♣, and many went down in 3NT.

On the very next board we lost another 8 IMP against the star who played 6♥ where 7 were cold. While it's understandable that 7♥ was hard to find only 44% of the field ended in 6♥.

My point is that most lads will either be in another contract, or not able to strip the hand, and exit safely.

[skjaeran]

ochinko, on Aug 28 2007, 12:07 PM, said:

gwnn, on Aug 27 2007, 11:31 PM, said:

Say we know that about 90% of the field is in 6♥.

I don't know where you play, but generally it would be very wrong to make this assumption.

I don't know where you play, but I'm used to playing in fields where 90+% reach a 33 hcp 11 controls 5-5 fit slam. I'm talking f2f bridge here, and not very strong fields, just experienced tournament players.