gwnn, on Aug 27 2007, 11:31 PM, said:
Say we know that about 90% of the field is in 6♥.
I don't know where you play, but generally it would be very wrong to make this assumption.
Just to give you an example, I played in an 8 boards tourney yesterday where we finished third. First was a pair with a star player in it. Against us that pair made 5
♣ +1 where depending on the defense it's +1 or +2. We still lost 4 IMP as there was only one pair that bid 6
♣, and many went down in 3NT.
On the very next board we lost another 8 IMP against the star who played 6
♥ where 7 were cold. While it's understandable that 7
♥ was hard to find only 44% of the field ended in 6
♥.
My point is that most lads will either be in another contract, or not able to strip the hand, and exit safely.