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Simplish one, Jx Axxx T98x ATx. MP red/red, your RHO opens 4S and everyone passes.
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Improving My Leads
#2
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Posted 2007-August-15, 01:45
♣A ... I think leading the shorter suit means I have a little more chance of only blowing one trick in the suit.
#3
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Posted 2007-August-15, 02:17
♦T for me
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#4
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Posted 2007-August-15, 02:22
D Ten. Yes, I know opener may get pitches on the Ds while we have cashing rounded tricks, but cashing an Ace may well set up a Kx in opener's hand, particularly at this vulnerability.
Clearly Justin thinks this lead is incorrect as otherwise it would be too easy.
Clearly Justin thinks this lead is incorrect as otherwise it would be too easy.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
#5
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Posted 2007-August-15, 02:56
I would certainly lead the diamond ten at the table, and I wouldn't consider it a big problem. I can certainly see arguments for leading an ace but even if declarer has nothing in that suit it could backfire if dummy has KQ there and the ace of diamonds.
[QUOTE]
Clearly Justin thinks this lead is incorrect as otherwise it would be too easy.
[\QOUTE]
Hmm, I don't agree. I think that there is a good chance that Justin thinks it is a tough lead.
[QUOTE]
Clearly Justin thinks this lead is incorrect as otherwise it would be too easy.
[\QOUTE]
Hmm, I don't agree. I think that there is a good chance that Justin thinks it is a tough lead.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.
- hrothgar
- hrothgar
#6
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Posted 2007-August-15, 03:01
T of ♦. No reason to make agressive leads. Diamonds could be the best spot to get your tricks and leading an A could easily blow a trick or a tempo. Leading a low club is too dangerous.
Anyone ready for a computer simulation ?
Anyone ready for a computer simulation ?
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
#7
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Posted 2007-August-15, 03:19
I'm going with the ♦10 here. Normal contract, normal lead. It could easily be a cash-out deal but there is no need to take drastic action. If dummy hits with the ♦AKQ, I'll make it up on the next board.
#8
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Posted 2007-August-15, 03:32
Ace of hearts
It's fairly usual to lead an ace on the this sequence, and I think the longer ace is less likely to blow (too many) tricks.
I'm not wildly happy with this, and I am accumulating a load of hands where empirically a trump lead was right. But I'm still not leading trumps.
If RHO is a known random pre-emptor, the D10 is more tempting.
It's fairly usual to lead an ace on the this sequence, and I think the longer ace is less likely to blow (too many) tricks.
I'm not wildly happy with this, and I am accumulating a load of hands where empirically a trump lead was right. But I'm still not leading trumps.
If RHO is a known random pre-emptor, the D10 is more tempting.
#9
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Posted 2007-August-15, 08:39
I am following Frances' reasoning and lead ♥A.
#10
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Posted 2007-August-15, 09:22
I think it is close between the ♥A (the aggressive lead.. the ♣A is also aggressive, but too aggressive in my mind) and the ♦10 (the passive lead).
Normally, I'd be writing about the difference in lead at mps and imps, but here we have insufficient information to make any distinction. There is a very good chance that any lead we make will be the only lead to let the contract through or, conversely, to set it. And, equally, any lead may be the one to blow overtricks or undertricks.
I think, at the table, I'd usually lead the ♦10.... so, to be consistent, that's my vote here. But I'd change to the ♥A in a heartbeat. The ♣ A is a distant third, to the point that I'd never lead it. And I NEVER lead trump in this situation.
Normally, I'd be writing about the difference in lead at mps and imps, but here we have insufficient information to make any distinction. There is a very good chance that any lead we make will be the only lead to let the contract through or, conversely, to set it. And, equally, any lead may be the one to blow overtricks or undertricks.
I think, at the table, I'd usually lead the ♦10.... so, to be consistent, that's my vote here. But I'd change to the ♥A in a heartbeat. The ♣ A is a distant third, to the point that I'd never lead it. And I NEVER lead trump in this situation.
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#11
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Posted 2007-August-15, 10:58
Jlall, on Aug 15 2007, 02:14 AM, said:
Simplish one, ♠ J x ♥ A x x x ♦ T 9 8 x ♣ A T x.
MP red/red, your RHO opens 4S and everyone passes.
MP red/red, your RHO opens 4S and everyone passes.
IMO ♥A = 10, ♣ A = 7, ♦T = 5. ♠J = 3
Rixi Markus' advice to lead an ace against a preempt often seems to work.
#12
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Posted 2007-August-15, 15:03
I would just always lead Ace of hearts on this auction and live with the consequences.
I think ten of diamonds is very attractive, but I can't live with the idea that an ace lead would take it down, while I have two aces.
I think ten of diamonds is very attractive, but I can't live with the idea that an ace lead would take it down, while I have two aces.
#13
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Posted 2007-August-15, 15:23
♥A.
I have to admit I might on a rare occasion try a low ♥ too.
I have to admit I might on a rare occasion try a low ♥ too.
Kind regards,
Harald
Harald
#14
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Posted 2007-August-15, 15:37
♥A. I have some disdain for the ♣A, but I don't care for the ♦10 at all.
"Phil" on BBO
#15
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Posted 2007-August-16, 00:35
I'm in the ♥A camp too. Anyway seems more a guess than a logical option
#16
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Posted 2007-August-16, 11:07
Two cases: 1. 4S by RHO is guess to be cheap vs our 4H. -> HA.
2. 4S to induce error, if no blabbing. -> any reasoned lead.
HA wins 1. Reasonable on 2.
2. 4S to induce error, if no blabbing. -> any reasoned lead.
HA wins 1. Reasonable on 2.
#17
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Posted 2007-August-19, 15:26
If RHO has KQTxxxxx and 5-10 HCPs, it's very close between CA and HA.
CA 83 times out of 100 is best lead or as good as any other
HA 81 "
DT 76 "
S2 76 "
SJ 73 "
Hx 64 "
Numbers are per 10,000 deal simulation using Jack to generate deals and Bo Haglund's double dummy solver and Flip Cronje's command line interface to analyze best leads.
5,000 deals have HCP=5-7 and 5,000 have HCP=8-10.
Will try some other hand types for RHO but it will take awhile. My wife wants to use the computer!
p.s. I'm just hacking around with this problem which I find somewhat interesting. Do not have any expertise in bridge or in running simulations to speak of. Happy to share output files if someone wants to critique them and rerun the simulation if problems are found.
CA 83 times out of 100 is best lead or as good as any other
HA 81 "
DT 76 "
S2 76 "
SJ 73 "
Hx 64 "
Numbers are per 10,000 deal simulation using Jack to generate deals and Bo Haglund's double dummy solver and Flip Cronje's command line interface to analyze best leads.
5,000 deals have HCP=5-7 and 5,000 have HCP=8-10.
Will try some other hand types for RHO but it will take awhile. My wife wants to use the computer!
p.s. I'm just hacking around with this problem which I find somewhat interesting. Do not have any expertise in bridge or in running simulations to speak of. Happy to share output files if someone wants to critique them and rerun the simulation if problems are found.
If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
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