[ralph23]

♣♦♥♠

Scoring: IMP

Contract is seven ♠!

---

Yes, partner's done it again... put you into some damn crazy slam and trusting on your good luck and super declarer play. You've found your way into a questionable ( ) spade grand slam. And you don't even have the King of trumps!!

The opening lead from West is the Jack of ♥.

1. What is your line of play to try to make this miserable contract?

2. What are your odds of success? For this part two, use the Suit Break Calculator at Richard Pavlicek's bridge site. The opps have not bid and you have no reason to suspect (or not suspect) any particular distribution from them.

NB - It's really a question about calculating the odds, so don't ignore part 2.

The link to Pavlicek's site:

http://www.rpbridge.net/xsb2.htm

Adv and Exp, pls hide your answers and give the B/I's a chance to figure this one out.

This post has been edited by ralph23: 2007-August-10, 13:41

[goobers]

I guess you run the spades (I think the percentage play is to drop stiff K), hoping to squeeze LHO out of heart/diamond guard. If it looks like that fails on the run of spades (DK doesn't drop, LHO is still guarding hearts), you can still hook the club.

Though I suspect in real life I would lead the DQ off the board, see if RHO hesitates, then go up and then finesse the club.

Does that squeeze thing work? I'm not sure if I got it right.

[ralph23]

goobers, on Aug 10 2007, 02:42 PM, said:

Does that squeeze thing work? I'm not sure if I got it right.

Does it?

What are your final cards in the South hand as you are running all your trumps?

And what are you discarding from dummy while you are doing this? (i.e. same question for North, in effect...)

but Hey, you're not getting off THAT easy .... what are the odds of success on your line of play ??

[ralph23]

♣♦♥♠


An addition: Assume that *IF* the hearts do not divide evenly, then they are dividing 4-2. Yes, there are obviously other ways they can divide unevenly, but let's not make it quite that complicated for computing the odds.....

[cherdano]

Spoiler

♥A, ♠A, ♦Q to A (just in case), club to ace, cash dummy's spades, heart to K, cash the remaining spades, pitching two diamonds first, then at last the ♣Q if it isn't high. Needs spades 1-1, then makes when hearts are 3-3, or LHO has four and at least one minor suit king, or RHO has four and the diamond (corrected, had by mistake written club here earlier) king.

No I am too lazy to calculate the odds

This post has been edited by cherdano: 2007-August-10, 14:41

[Trumpace]

Tough to calculate odds.

I think I will play as follows:
[]

Spoiler

win in dummy, lead SQ, up with spade A. If spades are 1-1 good.

Next cash all the hearts and see if 4th heart is good.
Cash dummy's spades, then lead DQ and up with A if RHO does not cover.
Now cash remaining spades, discarding the 4th heart on the 11th trick if it is not good (Keep AQ clubs in dummy, DT and club in hand)

If DT is not yet good, play the club and make a guess as to whether to take the finesse or drop.

[]

[ralph23]

Note to Arend:

Spoiler

Will you succeed when RHO has 4 hearts and the club King? You just discarded the Queen of Clubs in front of him, when everyone had to come down to four cards; and he gets to discard after you.

Won't he just follow your discard, and throw away his King of clubs, and keeping parity with dummy?

[goobers]

ralph23, on Aug 10 2007, 02:47 PM, said:

goobers, on Aug 10 2007, 02:42 PM, said:

Does that squeeze thing work?  I'm not sure if I got it right.

Does it?

What are your final cards in the South hand as you are running all your trumps?

And what are you discarding from dummy while you are doing this? (i.e. same question for North, in effect...)

but Hey, you're not getting off THAT easy .... what are the odds of success on your line of play ??

I think it works, you will have cashed 3 hearts, 6 spades. On the final spade, LHO has to come down to 3 cards. Assuming he has both the DK and the heart guard, his hand is either reduced to xx K or x Kx. So he will be squeezed in the reds (you will know when you cash DA).

Obviously I don't know if this is optimal, and I don't know the odds

Edit: Oh, I have to make 3 pitches off dummy, I forgot about that

Edit2: Duh, just pitch 3 diamonds off dummy.

[ralph23]

goobers, on Aug 10 2007, 03:47 PM, said:

ralph23, on Aug 10 2007, 02:47 PM, said:

goobers, on Aug 10 2007, 02:42 PM, said:

Does that squeeze thing work?  I'm not sure if I got it right.

Does it?

What are your final cards in the South hand as you are running all your trumps?

And what are you discarding from dummy while you are doing this? (i.e. same question for North, in effect...)

but Hey, you're not getting off THAT easy .... what are the odds of success on your line of play ??

I think it works, you will have cashed 3 hearts, 6 spades. On the final spade, LHO has to come down to 3 cards. Assuming he has both the DK and the heart guard, his hand is either reduced to xx K or x Kx. So he will be squeezed in the reds (you will know when you cash DA).

Obviously I don't know if this is optimal, and I don't know the odds

Edit: Oh, I have to make 3 pitches off dummy, I forgot about that

Edit2: Duh, just pitch 3 diamonds off dummy.

So, are you saying that this line succeeds only when both (1) West started with 4 ♥ and (2) West holds the King of ♦, and that it fails otherwise?

[Echognome]

If you get past the hurdle in trumps, there are all kinds of squeezes available to us. The ♦T in our hand makes any squeeze involving diamonds automatic. We also have menaces in hearts and clubs. The only thing we don't have is a late entry in ♥ if we take our ♥Q at trick 1. Since I'm going to play for the drop rather than the finesse in trumps, I'm going to take the heart in hand at trick 1. Then I'm going to lay down the ♠A. If I survive that, I'm going cash dummy's spades and the ♣A, then come back to my hand with my remaining ♥ honor and run my spades. I will pitch all my diamonds and have threats in all three remaining suits. It will either act as a triple or a double squeeze depending on the layout (and if it works at all).

[goobers]

ralph23, on Aug 10 2007, 04:05 PM, said:

goobers, on Aug 10 2007, 03:47 PM, said:

ralph23, on Aug 10 2007, 02:47 PM, said:

goobers, on Aug 10 2007, 02:42 PM, said:

Does that squeeze thing work?  I'm not sure if I got it right.

Does it?

What are your final cards in the South hand as you are running all your trumps?

And what are you discarding from dummy while you are doing this? (i.e. same question for North, in effect...)

but Hey, you're not getting off THAT easy .... what are the odds of success on your line of play ??

I think it works, you will have cashed 3 hearts, 6 spades. On the final spade, LHO has to come down to 3 cards. Assuming he has both the DK and the heart guard, his hand is either reduced to xx K or x Kx. So he will be squeezed in the reds (you will know when you cash DA).

Obviously I don't know if this is optimal, and I don't know the odds

Edit: Oh, I have to make 3 pitches off dummy, I forgot about that

Edit2: Duh, just pitch 3 diamonds off dummy.

So, are you saying that this line succeeds only when both (1) West started with 4 ♥ and (2) West holds the King of ♦, and that it fails otherwise?

Either opponent can hold both guards.

[ralph23]

Echognome, on Aug 10 2007, 04:05 PM, said:

If you get past the hurdle in trumps, there are all kinds of squeezes available to us.  The ♦T in our hand makes any squeeze involving diamonds automatic.  We also have menaces in hearts and clubs.  The only thing we don't have is a late entry in ♥ if we take our ♥Q at trick 1.  Since I'm going to play for the drop rather than the finesse in trumps, I'm going to take the heart in hand at trick 1.  Then I'm going to lay down the ♠A.  If I survive that, I'm going cash dummy's spades and the ♣A, then come back to my hand with my remaining ♥ honor and run my spades.  I will pitch all my diamonds and have threats in all three remaining suits.  It will either act as a triple or a double squeeze depending on the layout (and if it works at all).

So I think you are saying (maybe I am wrong) that your 3-card ending is:

---

and at trick 11 you cash your last trump and watch West's discard. Is that a correct interpretation?

This post has been edited by ralph23: 2007-August-10, 15:19

[skjaeran]

ralph23, on Aug 10 2007, 11:17 PM, said:

Echognome, on Aug 10 2007, 04:05 PM, said:

If you get past the hurdle in trumps, there are all kinds of squeezes available to us.  The ♦T in our hand makes any squeeze involving diamonds automatic.  We also have menaces in hearts and clubs.  The only thing we don't have is a late entry in ♥ if we take our ♥Q at trick 1.  Since I'm going to play for the drop rather than the finesse in trumps, I'm going to take the heart in hand at trick 1.  Then I'm going to lay down the ♠A.  If I survive that, I'm going cash dummy's spades and the ♣A, then come back to my hand with my remaining ♥ honor and run my spades.  I will pitch all my diamonds and have threats in all three remaining suits.  It will either act as a triple or a double squeeze depending on the layout (and if it works at all).

So I think you are saying (maybe I am wrong) that your 3-card ending is:

---

and at trick 11 you cash your last trump and watch West's discard. Is that a correct interpretation?

Thus a squeeze against west will work if he holds hearts and either minor suit king and against east holding hearts and the diamond king. Not sure if that's the best line.

[ralph23]

skaeran, on Aug 11 2007, 04:50 AM, said:

Thus a squeeze against west will work if he holds hearts and either minor suit king and against east holding hearts and the diamond king. Not sure if that's the best line.

Ah, as usual, Harald to the rescue! Yeaaa !

1. Is it the best line? {NB although not stated, if West throws either a high honor or a heart on the final trump at trick 11, then claim; if he throws a small club or diamond, then plan A didn't work, so discard the Queen of clubs from dummy and hope that East started with 4+ hearts and the diamond King.}

2. The question anyway, wasn't "find the best line" -- although of course that is a great thing to do and everyone should of course strive to achieve such to the best of his/her abilities...

The question was, "What is your line of play, and what are the odds of that line's success"?

FWIW, the (very cool imho) line suggested by echo wasn't the one that I was going to play at the table.

OK, maybe this odds thingie calculation was too much to ask.... can anyone at least compute the odds (i.e. percentage basis) of our winning the first trick ??

This post has been edited by ralph23: 2007-August-11, 08:07

[bid_em_up]

ralph23, on Aug 11 2007, 08:55 AM, said:

can anyone at least compute the odds (i.e. percentage basis) of our winning the first trick ??

The odds of a 6-0 break is 1.49% for either hand to be void, 1/2 of that (where RHO is void) is 0.745%.

Did you really mean the 1st trick?

[jdonn]

Having only skimmed the other answers (sorry too lazy) I think a better line than playing off ace of clubs and keeping the heart entry is playing of three rounds of hearts and keeping the club entry. The general reason is we will see the heart break ahead of time so we will have more sure information about who is being squeezed in what. Plus if they are 3-3 it saves a lot of mental anguish!

So, A♥ A♠ QJT♠ Q♥ K♥ and start running spades, which I think keeps all possibilities alive.

[ralph23]

jdonn, on Aug 11 2007, 10:45 AM, said:

Having only skimmed the other answers (sorry too lazy) I think a better line than playing off ace of clubs and keeping the heart entry is playing of three rounds of hearts and keeping the club entry. The general reason is we will see the heart break ahead of time so we will have more sure information about who is being squeezed in what. Plus if they are 3-3 it saves a lot of mental anguish!

So, A♥ A♠ QJT♠ Q♥ K♥ and start running spades, which I think keeps all possibilities alive.

I'm assuming you also cashed your Ace of ♦ at some point during the run of the trumps from the South hand, so is your three card ending then:

---

??

and now at trick 11, you will play the last trump from the South hand??

[jtfanclub]

ralph23, on Aug 11 2007, 11:11 AM, said:

and now at trick 11, you will play the last trump from the South hand??

That would depend upon who has the four hearts, yes?

If West started with 4 hearts, you should play the last trump for the obvious squeeze.

If East started with 4 hearts, I believe the correct play now is the club to the ace.

[ralph23]

jtfanclub, on Aug 11 2007, 11:22 AM, said:

ralph23, on Aug 11 2007, 11:11 AM, said:

and now at trick 11, you will play the last trump from the South hand??

That would depend upon who has the four hearts, yes?

If West started with 4 hearts, you should play the last trump for the obvious squeeze.

Case 1. Suppose West started with 4♥ and one of the two missing honors (call those "H").

You are in the stated three-card ending, and you now play the final trump from the South hand. West at this point remains with three cards also, namely:

♥Ten
H
small ♣

West discards his small ♣ on your final trump. He was not squeezed.

East of course remains with H and two worthless clubs. He will just toss a worthless card. He will not be squeezed.

You, meanwhile, must discard one of your threat cards: either the Queen of ♣ or your long ♥.

(1) If you discard your long ♥ at trick 11, then you are reduced to taking the ♣ finesse at trick 12.

(i) If West's H was the club King, then you win.
(ii) If West's H was the ♦ King, then you lose, as West will toss the King of ♦ when you lead a ♣ at trick 12, and you must either lose trick 12 (the King of ♣) to East or trick 13 (the ♥) to West.

(2) If you discard your Queen of ♣ at trick 11, on the other hand, then your only plays at trick 12 are either (1) club to the Ace, and lose the final ♥ to West; or (2) give up the ten of ♦ to whomever holds the King.

Case 2. Suppose on the other hand that East started with 4♥ plus H.

If you play your club to the Ace at trick 11, everyone will follow suit low, and you are in the dummy, which now contains only a small heart and the Queen of ♣.

Whichever one of those you lead at trick 12, someone has a larger one, and you must ruff trick 12 in your hand. Leaving you with the ten of diamonds to surrender at trick 13.

This post has been edited by ralph23: 2007-August-11, 12:28

[markleon]

jtfanclub, on Aug 11 2007, 12:22 PM, said:

If East started with 4 hearts, I believe the correct play now is the club to the ace.

If East has 4 hearts, a club to the ace will only work if East started with both minor kings and has already been squeezed. In this case, playing the last spade will not hurt. However, if West has both minor kings, playing the last spade will complete the show-up.

If the kings are split, then playing the last spade will give you another piece of information, before deciding whether to take the club finesse or to play for East to have been squeezed in all three suits.