[ralph23]

markleon, on Aug 11 2007, 12:16 PM, said:

jtfanclub, on Aug 11 2007, 12:22 PM, said:

If East started with 4 hearts, I believe the correct play now is the club to the ace.

If East has 4 hearts, a club to the ace will only work if East started with both minor kings and has already been squeezed. In this case, playing the last spade will not hurt. However, if West has both minor kings, playing the last spade will complete the show-up.

If the kings are split, then playing the last spade will give you another piece of information, before deciding whether to take the club finesse or to play for East to have been squeezed in all three suits.

If the Kings are split, and if East started with 4♥, then on trick 11 each defender will have a junk minor card (let's say a club) to play.

West holds 3 cards to play on tricks 11, 12 and 13:
H
♣9
♣T

East holds 3 cards to play on these three last tricks:
♥8
H
♣J

Furthermore, on trick 11, you must discard from the dummy before East does. So you only get information from West; you will either have to ditch your long ♥ or the ♣ Queen on trick 11.

And ex hypothesi, West has two junky cards to accompany his H.

Observation:

(1) If West got dealt both H cards and 4 ♥, then he's going to be cooked. Just play your last trump at trick 11 and he must throw away a guard.

(2) If East got dealt both H cards and 4♥, and:

(i) you throw your ♥ from dummy at trick 11, he'll also throw his ♥ {the card he is known to hold} and be left with HH. The fate of the contract then depends on whether or not you take the finesse in ♣ (boo ) or rise with the Ace (yea ).

(ii) If on the other hand, you discard your Queen of ♣ on the trump at trick 11, he'll toss his King of ♣, and you have no good options at trick 12: either lead a club to the Ace and lose the last heart, or lead your losing ♦.

This post has been edited by ralph23: 2007-August-11, 12:52

[ralph23]

bid_em_up, on Aug 11 2007, 09:55 AM, said:

ralph23, on Aug 11 2007, 08:55 AM, said:

can anyone at least compute the odds (i.e. percentage basis) of our winning the first trick ??

The odds of a 6-0 break is 1.49% for either hand to be void, 1/2 of that (where RHO is void) is 0.745%.

Did you really mean the 1st trick?

Yes, I did mean the first trick.

But try again. What TWO conditions must exist in order for us to lose the first trick?

[cherdano]

ralph23, on Aug 11 2007, 12:46 PM, said:

bid_em_up, on Aug 11 2007, 09:55 AM, said:

ralph23, on Aug 11 2007, 08:55 AM, said:

can anyone at least compute the odds (i.e. percentage basis) of our winning the first trick ??

The odds of a 6-0 break is 1.49% for either hand to be void, 1/2 of that (where RHO is void) is 0.745%.

Did you really mean the 1st trick?

Yes, I did mean the first trick.

But try again. What TWO conditions must exist in order for us to lose the first trick?

Ralph, I am not sure what you are getting at, but you can't compute odds at the bridge table like that. The odds of RHO having a heart void is 0.745%. However, LHO will always lead a 7-card suit against a grand slam in a suit (whereas with other heart holding he might lead another suit), so there is a restricted-choice kind argument that the odds are higher. Against that, with a void RHO might have made a Lightner double. I think that double would be wrong but still he might have made it, decreasing the odds.

[ralph23]

cherdano, on Aug 11 2007, 01:57 PM, said:

[Ralph, I am not sure what you are getting at, but you can't compute odds at the bridge table like that.

Of course you can, in my problems anyway. The odds are a priori. There is no outside information available.

It was a real easy question.... but if you don't see what two conditions must exist in order for us to lose trick one -- remember, the bidding was not given and for all you know, declarer opened 6 spades and it was raised to 7 -- you need to reset!!!


>>>LHO will always lead a 7-card suit against a grand slam in a suit

NB - We have 7 ♥ collectively in NS, so no one has a 7 card ♥ suit.....

This post has been edited by ralph23: 2007-August-11, 13:22

[cherdano]

Ralph, then why do you insist on s.o. else computing odds that are not at all bridge-relevant? The case where RHO can't ruff obviously doesn't matter, as we are down anyway... Is it because you would like to know the odds (I don't see why), or because you think it is useful for s.o. else to compute them (I disagree)...

[ralph23]

cherdano, on Aug 11 2007, 02:23 PM, said:

Ralph, then why do you insist on s.o. else computing odds that are not at all bridge-relevant? The case where RHO can't ruff obviously doesn't matter, as we are down anyway... Is it because you would like to know the odds (I don't see why), or because you think it is useful for s.o. else to compute them (I disagree)...

I think it's useful to learn to compute them & to learn to be alert to all the conditions needed to answer the question posed correctly....instead of just assuming we will lose trick 1 if LHO has led from a six-card suit.

Yes we're down if LHO has ♠Kx. But that was not the question posed, was it?

Fine with me if you disagree with the pedagogical philosophy or on "bridge relevancy"...each to his own taste.

[jdonn]

ralph23, on Aug 11 2007, 11:11 AM, said:

jdonn, on Aug 11 2007, 10:45 AM, said:

Having only skimmed the other answers (sorry too lazy) I think a better line than playing off ace of clubs and keeping the heart entry is playing of three rounds of hearts and keeping the club entry. The general reason is we will see the heart break ahead of time so we will have more sure information about who is being squeezed in what. Plus if they are 3-3 it saves a lot of mental anguish!

So, A♥ A♠ QJT♠ Q♥ K♥ and start running spades, which I think keeps all possibilities alive.

I'm assuming you also cashed your Ace of ♦ at some point during the run of the trumps from the South hand, so is your three card ending then:

---

??

and now at trick 11, you will play the last trump from the South hand??

I don't know why you assumed that. Make that a 4 card ending including the diamond ace still being in south's hand, and at that point it just matters what everyone has played so far so there is no way to say what I'd do next.

[skjaeran]

jdonn, on Aug 11 2007, 10:07 PM, said:

ralph23, on Aug 11 2007, 11:11 AM, said:

jdonn, on Aug 11 2007, 10:45 AM, said:

Having only skimmed the other answers (sorry too lazy) I think a better line than playing off ace of clubs and keeping the heart entry is playing of three rounds of hearts and keeping the club entry. The general reason is we will see the heart break ahead of time so we will have more sure information about who is being squeezed in what. Plus if they are 3-3 it saves a lot of mental anguish!

So, A♥ A♠ QJT♠ Q♥ K♥ and start running spades, which I think keeps all possibilities alive.

I'm assuming you also cashed your Ace of ♦ at some point during the run of the trumps from the South hand, so is your three card ending then:

---

??

and now at trick 11, you will play the last trump from the South hand??

I don't know why you assumed that. Make that a 4 card ending including the diamond ace still being in south's hand, and at that point it just matters what everyone has played so far so there is no way to say what I'd do next.

Agree with Josh here. I'd also come down to a 4-card ending with the low diamond in dummy and the ace in hand in addition to the above ending. If LHO holds the ♥'s I'll obviously throw the ♥6 from dummy now.

[ralph23]

jdonn, on Aug 11 2007, 03:07 PM, said:

I don't know why you assumed that. Make that a 4 card ending including the diamond ace still being in south's hand, and at that point it just matters what everyone has played so far so there is no way to say what I'd do next.

Does your method work better than Echo's, I wonder? Or don't they both work in the same circumstance, i.e. West with 4♥ and either minor King, or East with 4♥ and the King of diamonds?

[cherdano]

Ralph doubly dummy you can make, just pitch the ♣Q on the trump and play a club.

[jdonn]

ralph23, on Aug 11 2007, 06:13 PM, said:

Can you make it from here? NB - Whenever you lead your last trump, West and East will both discard a ♣.

Echo's squeeze will work, as Harald correctly noted, whenever EITHER (1) West started with 4♥ and any minor King, OR (2) East started with 4♥ and the King of ♦.

a. I don't think your method works when West holds 4♥ and the diamond King, and East holds the club King, as depicted above. Does it?

b. And I can't find any compensating advantage to playing it this way, i.e. an instance in which your method works and Echo's fails. Is there one?

But I'm ready to be instructed in both a. and b.

a. Easily, discard dummy's club queen on the trump and lead a club to the ace to squeeze west. And though it doesn't actually matter here, I would have thrown QJ of diamonds from dummy on the trumps to unblock, in case it came down to taking the diamond finesse.

b. Yes, that you get to see how hearts break before making any decisions. Playing the club ace then running trumps you have to guess about all three suits. Playing hearts first and saving the club ace you get a sure count on the hearts so only have to guess about two suits. Of course when I say "guess", in both cases it will be a very educated guess that you are likely to get right based on the discards and being at the table, but needless to say the more information you get early the more accurate you will be, and the only way to get any real information early is to test the hearts.

What in the world does NB mean?

[ralph23]

jdonn, on Aug 11 2007, 06:21 PM, said:

What in the world does NB mean?

Nota bene, Latin for "note well" ... same school as e.g. and i.e......

So Echo's method works whenever EITHER (i) West holds 4♥ and either minor King OR (ii) East holds 4♥ and the diamond King.

Will your method work in an additional circumstance (of course, both methods work when ♥ are 3-3)?

[jdonn]

No, double dummy they are equivalent. At the table I am convinced my way will make more often, and needless to say you save a lot of brain cells by finding out hearts are 3-3 sooner.

[ralph23]

jdonn, on Aug 11 2007, 06:37 PM, said:

No, double dummy they are equivalent. At the table I am convinced my way will make more often, and needless to say you save a lot of brain cells by finding out hearts are 3-3 sooner.

Is there a method that is better than either of the squeeze methods? And that saves brain cells, too?

Here's where that gross math part comes back in and rears its ugly head...

[cherdano]

jdonn, on Aug 11 2007, 05:21 PM, said:

b. Yes, that you get to see how hearts break before making any decisions. Playing the club ace then running trumps you have to guess about all three suits. Playing hearts first and saving the club ace you get a sure count on the hearts so only have to guess about two suits. Of course when I say "guess", in both cases it will be a very educated guess that you are likely to get right based on the discards and being at the table, but needless to say the more information you get early the more accurate you will be, and the only way to get any real information early is to test the hearts.

What you say about the straightforward squeeze line is just not true, it is a completely automatic show-up squeeze, the only thing you need to notice is if someone discards a king, there is no guessing.

Maybe your line works better if you guess very well at the end but I am too lazy to look at that right now.

[jtfanclub]

ralph23, on Aug 11 2007, 12:04 PM, said:

jtfanclub, on Aug 11 2007, 11:22 AM, said:

ralph23, on Aug 11 2007, 11:11 AM, said:

and now at trick 11, you will play the last trump from the South hand??

That would depend upon who has the four hearts, yes?

If West started with 4 hearts, you should play the last trump for the obvious squeeze.

Case 1. Suppose West started with 4♥ and one of the two missing honors (call those "H").

You are in the stated three-card ending, and you now play the final trump from the South hand. West at this point remains with three cards also, namely:

♥Ten
H
small ♣

West discards his small ♣ on your final trump. He was not squeezed.

East of course remains with H and two worthless clubs. He will just toss a worthless card. He will not be squeezed.

You, meanwhile, must discard one of your threat cards: either the Queen of ♣ or your long ♥.

(1) If you discard your long ♥ at trick 11, then you are reduced to taking the ♣ finesse at trick 12.

There is no club finesse.

There are only four cards left- a small club, a heart, a diamond, and a high club.

I know one of West's cards is a heart. Therefore, when I lead a club, if he plays a small club, I know East's cards are a diamond and the king of club, and I drop the king.

If West's other card is the king of clubs...well, that one should be obvious.

So when West has the heart guard, this works whenever West either has neither honor, both honors, or just the club honor. It fails only when he has just the diamond honor.

Not sure which method is better when East has the heart guard. If I play the last trump and sluff a heart, East has an easy heart sluff. If I play the last stup and sluff a club, East has an easy club sluff. So I don't see how playing the last trump helps there.

[ralph23]

ralph23, on Aug 11 2007, 06:40 PM, said:

jdonn, on Aug 11 2007, 06:37 PM, said:

No, double dummy they are equivalent. At the table I am convinced my way will make more often, and needless to say you save a lot of brain cells by finding out hearts are 3-3 sooner.

Is there a method that is better than either of the squeeze methods? And that saves brain cells, too?

Here's where that gross math part comes back in and rears its ugly head...

Is the squeeze line optimal ? (Choose your favorite squeeze...).

Or another way of saying that: is there another line, other than the squeeze line, and how do its chances compare to your favorite squeeze-line chances?

http://www.rpbridge.net/xsb2.htm

This post has been edited by ralph23: 2007-August-12, 08:06

[ralph23]

jtfanclub, on Aug 12 2007, 08:24 AM, said:

There is no club finesse.

There are only four cards left- a small club, a heart, a diamond, and a high club.

I'm afraid I lost you ... sorry. Try again. I don't know what the "only four cards left" is referring to..... I think it's referring to the defender's holding after trick 11 is played, but what happened in trick 11?

We were in a 3-card ending, as you recall. Here was the 3-card ending.

---

And the question raised (my post of Aug 11 at 11.11 AM) was (with the lead in South), "What do you lead at trick 11?"

And you said in reply, in the next post, something like "It depends. If West started with the four ♥, then I'll lead the last trump (at trick 11) for the obvious squeeze."

So you do that -- lead the last trump -- at trick 11.

Then West played the Jack of clubs on your trump.

Now it is your play from dummy at trick 11..... What do you play?

PS -- The EW cards combined, before you led this final trump at trick 11, were six (6) in all: the ten of ♥ (which you "know" {ex hyphothesi} that West has), the two minor Kings, and three clubs (say the 9TJ).

PPS - Yea, it would be cool if East threw away the King of ♦ on trick 11, but it ain't gonna happen ... he's gonna play the 9 or T of ♣. And he may not even have the King of diamonds anyhow !!

Sorry if this got so long, I may have just been confused and missed a step in what you were saying. Or I just missed what happened at trick 11, one or the other....or brain cells disconnected ... or whatever...

This post has been edited by ralph23: 2007-August-12, 09:12

[ralph23]

>>>Not sure which method is better when East has the heart guard. If I play the last trump and sluff a heart, East has an easy heart sluff. If I play the last stup and sluff a club, East has an easy club sluff. So I don't see how playing the last trump helps there.

When East started with the long ♥, the "squeeze" plan only works if he also started with both minor Kings. If that's the case, then at trick 11, he is down to ♥8, ♣K, ♦K. Your only chance is that he has already been squeezed, and to lead your club to the ♣Ace, dropping his ♣King, cash your Queen of ♣ and trump the final trick.

So your overall success rate is:

If West has 4♥: You win in any combination of minor honors EXCEPT West holding only the ♦King.

If East has 4♥: You only win if East holds both minor Kings.

True??

Or aren't you better off in the East-long-♥ case, just taking the ♣ finesse at trick 11?

[jtfanclub]

ralph23, on Aug 12 2007, 11:49 AM, said:

So your overall success rate is:

If West has 4♥: You win in any combination of minor honors EXCEPT West holding only the ♦King.

If East has 4♥: You only win if East holds both minor Kings.

True??

Or aren't you better off in the East-long-♥ case, just taking the ♣ finesse at trick 11?

OK, yes, obviously you saw the final play on West being long (you sluff a heart on trick 11).

That looks true to me. Obviously, if hearts are 3-3, you're cool too.