[han]

I think you are wrong Paul, but I'm not 100% sure about this. It's an interesting idea but they might not have any choice in the matter.

If I were USA2 I would try to maximize my chances of getting to the finals, and then try to win those.

[cherdano]

cardsharp, on Sep 29 2007, 12:12 PM, said:

skaeran, on Sep 29 2007, 07:08 PM, said:

Surely this weakens the team - no insult to Hemant Lall intended, he's obviously a strong player, but not in the same league as Soloway.

As I mentioned in my blog, I think this will encourage USA2 to play Italy as soon as possible in the KO stages, given the opportunity. This would give them the best chance of winning the event, which I'm sure is their only thought.

Hmm, I disagree. Your logic (they want to play a match as short as possible against Italy) only makes sense if they believe they are the worse team. They will have the choice only if they did considerably better than Italy in the round robin. Do you really think they would believe they are inferior in that case?
(In fact I doubt this team would ever believe being inferior.)

I would rather guess they will prefer to play Italy as late as possible so that Hemmant have more time to get in tune.

[han]

I was thinking exactly the same.

[Cascade]

Jlall, on Sep 30 2007, 07:36 AM, said:

In my opinion it is always better to wait till the last possible moment to play your main competitors for the simple reason that they may get eliminated. Yes you can create artificial scenarios where on a scale of 1-100 team A is a 100, team B is a 95 and teams C and D are 1's, and thus C or D will never beat A and B should try to randomize it by playing a shorter match vs A. This is not the case in the bermuda bowl though where even a team like say, argentina, would have a non zero chance of beating the italians.

Interestingly I had this same debate in with Joe in the junior world championships where Poland was generally considered better than us and we were generally considered better than everyone else. Joe thought that if we won the round robin maybe we should pick poland as our opponents since the match would be shorter. I made the point above but of course there were other factors too (poland only played 2 pairs so they were more apt to be tired towards the end and also carryover reasons).

In 2005 the Polish Juniors were very tired and it may well have cost them that they effectively played as a four. The won the round-robin well and then only narrowly lost the final in an eight-board playoff after they were tied with USA1 after regulation play.

[Rossoneri]

easy, on Sep 29 2007, 08:45 PM, said:

Are all of the predictors aware that usa2 has lost paul soloway who has been replaced by hemant lall?

Oops! I wasnt aware but I am still sticking to my prediction.

[Aberlour10]

Go Trinidad Tobago Go! It was a good 1st day! (won vs China SMEG & New Zealand)

[Mbodell]

Pakistan also won all 3 matches and are in 5th overall which is a pretty good first day. Not so good for Australia who are 2nd to last and face another tough day tomorrow.

USA 1 had a fantastic day scoring 74, which would be a fine score against anyone but for it to include 24 off USA 2, makes it all the better.

Netherlands are the only team without a VP win (they beat Australia by 1 IMP for 15-15), but are tied for 11th.

Unsurprisingly, given the day they had, the USA 1 pairs rank 1st, 2nd, and 10th in the butler ranking of individual pairs.

[Gerben42]

Okay I've received 17 entries

15 of 17 predict Italy wins the Bowl, one USA 2 homer call and one hopeful Norwegian who kindly put Netherlands in 2nd, rerun of the 1993 final.

Finalists after Italy:

7x USA 2
3x USA 1
2x Netherlands
2x China
1x Poland

VC Won:

4x France
3x USA 1
2x Netherlands
2x Germany
1x China
1x England

SB Won:

6x USA 2
3x USA 1
3x Poland
1x Indonesia (me)

[HeavyDluxe]

Quote

15 of 17 predict Italy wins the Bowl, one USA 2 homer call and one hopeful Norwegian smile.gif who kindly put Netherlands in 2nd, rerun of the 1993 final.

*ahem* Not simply a homer call! As I said in my post, why pick Italy like everyone else? If USA2 won, I'd look like a genius.

Also note my stunning integrity... I did not waver from my pick even when the news came that Soloway wouldn't be making the trip (meaning no offense to Jlall's pop, of course). Integrity.

Of course, I'm also looking like a huge loser. But I'm used to this, especially re: bridge.


Good luck to one and all... And thanks for running this, Gerben!

[Gerben42]

Only three players got 6 QF picks right, lowerline, edmunte1 and Roland Wald.

In the VC, most got at least 6, some got 7.

Nigel Guthrie got 7 of the Senior's QFists right.

All in all, Edmunte is ahead at the QF stage, 38 points.

************

Included the QF results now, ahead with 48 points... Harald Skaeran, and looking strong since he picked Netherlands & Norway as finalists, one of which will for sure be there (and the others all have Italy wrong).

Leading in the Bermuda Bowl so far is Roland Wald (24), Aberlour in the Venice Cup (22), Harald and I in the Senior's Bowl (9)

[Rossoneri]

I demand a refund!

Who expected Italy to be knocked out so soon?

[Gerben42]

Semifinal results included:

1. Harald Skaeran, 58
2. Roland Wald, 56
3 - 5. Paul Gipson, Edmunte, Dluxe, 52

No other players can win at this point.

Ahead in the Bermuda Bowl is Roland Wald but Harald will overtake him if Norway wins.

Ahead in the Venice Cup are Paul Gipson and Aberlour. Paul will win this if USA wins, Dluxe will win this if Germany wins.

Ahead in the Senior's Bowl are Nigel and I, but we disagree on the winner.

[Rossoneri]

Harald wins I believe =)

Great faith in your fellow countrymen!

[Walddk]

Gerben42, on Oct 10 2007, 02:52 PM, said:

Ahead in the Bermuda Bowl is Roland Wald but Harald will overtake him if Norway wins.

I am delighted that he did!

Roland

[Gerben42]

FINAL SCORE:

1. Harald: 70
2/3. Paul: 64
2/3. Ed: 64
4/5. Dluxe: 56
4/5. Roland: 56

BEST IN EACH COMPETITION:

Bermuda Bowl: Harald
Venice Cup: Paul
Seniors Bowl: Nigel

Edit I pasted the wrong line in my Excel-chart - Thanks to Paul for pointing this out

This post has been edited by Gerben42: 2007-October-15, 04:52

[HeavyDluxe]

First off, thanks for Gerben for the game and for tracking the results! This made the whole Championship a ton of fun. I only regret that I couldn't watch more of the matches live!

Congrats to the Harald for the win.

Quote

4/5. Roland: 56
4/5. Dluxe: 56

I suspect this will be the pinnacle of my achievements in bridge. I just won't tell people that it was a pick 'em pool.

Thanks everyone... It was fun!