[Gerben42]

Why do you think Europe would also close its borders?

[Al_U_Card]

Hey Gerben

As you can see from Mike's post, headinthesanditis is common for the old guard. They refuse to recognize the new situation as that is not a pleasant alternative.

Europe would not "close" its borders, but americans would not be able to pay for european goods and services. No more tourists either (except those 3 or 4 hundred thousand fabulously wealthy elitists that were in absolute control of the country). Effectively, europe would only deal with its economically viable partners left standing. The EU will be the next (economic) superpower as long as it acts sensibly over the next few years.

[Al_U_Card]

Winstonm, on Aug 13 2007, 07:46 PM, said:

Mutually Assured Economic Destruction?

How 'bout

Societies Commonly Agreed Restructuring Economically ?

[pbleighton]

China will pass the U.S. as an economic power fairly soon, at least as measured by GDP.

Quote

The post is about China's ability to influence American politics by economic threats. The Chinese call this their "nuclear option". The reality of the consequences of that action to the U.S. are well understood.

You may want to read the linked article to get a better perspective on the nature of the Chinese jawboning to use its financial weapon. Their purpose is to influence political decisions, to kill bills in Congress they believe negative to their aims.

If a country cannot make laws because of the threat of economic reprisal, who is really in charge?

China doesn't want an economic war. They are a huge exporter, one of the biggest beneficiaries of a stable world economy.

Of course they try to influence other countries. All countries do.

BFD.

Peter

[mike777]

pbleighton, on Aug 14 2007, 09:08 AM, said:

China will pass the U.S. as an economic power fairly soon, at least as measured by GDP.

Quote

The post is about China's ability to influence American politics by economic threats. The Chinese call this their "nuclear option". The reality of the consequences of that action to the U.S. are well understood.

You may want to read the linked article to get a better perspective on the nature of the Chinese jawboning to use its financial weapon. Their purpose is to influence political decisions, to kill bills in Congress they believe negative to their aims.

If a country cannot make laws because of the threat of economic reprisal, who is really in charge?

China doesn't want an economic war. They are a huge exporter, one of the biggest beneficiaries of a stable world economy.

Of course they try to influence other countries. All countries do.

BFD.

Peter

If by fairly soon you mean in the next 50-100 years this indeed would be big news. I think next on the list is Germany at about number 4?

Of course I think Roland's Denmark just claimed the North Pole which has trillions in oil and gas, so they may beat us all now that they own Santa Claus.

[jtfanclub]

mike777, on Aug 14 2007, 02:00 PM, said:

If by fairly soon you mean in the next 50-100 years this indeed would be big news.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2001rank.html

In fact, China is probably higher, as they have a *lot* of off-the-books sales, from pirated sortware to heroin to weapons. In addition, some of the NorthWest is still pretty much a barter economy, which I doubt is accurately shown here.

So the Big Three are the U.S., EU, and China.

The two Mid-Majors are Japan and India, which are a third the size of the Big Three.

Excluding members of the EU, next on the list are the Regional Powers: Russia, Brazil, South Korea, Canada,Mexico, Indonesia. Each of them are less than half the size of Japan and India economically.

China is already effectively equal economically to the EU and the U.S. Their combination of a weak government and reliance on exports makes them a lot more vulnerable than the EU and U.S.

[mike777]

"China is already effectively equal economically to the EU and the U.S."


No!

China, today, is closer to 25% effectively, not 100%.

http://sun-bin.blogspot.com/2005/12/when-w...vertake-us.html


I avoided mentioning this before but let's not forget the Singularity may come in 2050, tough to predict gdp anywhere after that event.

http://en.wikipedia....cal_singularity

[pbleighton]

So Mike, are you saying you're not buying CIA information?

They say it's 75%.



Peter

[mike777]

pbleighton, on Aug 14 2007, 04:42 PM, said:

So Mike, are you saying you're not buying CIA information?

They say it's 75%.



Peter

They do not if I am reading the same info. They say PPP is 75% yes..not Gross GDP?

That is not the same thing as effectively equal to the usa in economic terms.


http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gd...ate_2007_0.html

[jtfanclub]

No, he's saying he can't tell the difference between GDP and GDP/cap.

CIA shows GDP, which is approximately equal. His blog shows GDP/cap, which is about 25%.

Which would mean...that China has about 4 times the number of people as the U.S.

Good thing we have the Internets to tell us all this, huh?

[mike777]

http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gd...ate_2007_0.html

If you prefer CIA source.

Feel free to debate exchange rates and Purchasing Parity on your own. I studied it for several years in trading foreign currencies and the so called experts never agreed.

[pbleighton]

Quote

If you prefer CIA source.

Ah, so you cherry-pick your intelligence estimates.

You could be a Republican President!!!!!!

Peter

[mike777]

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/sp...215/default.htm

Has many citations for those who wish to learn more.

Good overview of the Chinese Economy from the Fed.