[inquiry]

MP, non-vul, North Deals

♠	AJ8
♥	Q97
♦	J987
♣	AQ7

♠	Q965432
♥	A7
♦	T3
♣	83

Quote

Bidding
North  East   South  West
  1♦       1♥     1♠      2♣
  DBL    2♦     2♠      Pass       Dbl=3♠s, 2♦ NOT alert,
  All pass                                                          and described as natural

Opening lead is ♥T to ♥QA. Plan your matchpoint play, and explain.

[Cave_Draco]

This strikes me as a "room" question, .

4S played by North seems a good & reasonable contract that most Weak NT players will find!

If 4S makes, 2S+2 is a poor score... So I assume that 4S doesn't make!

Therefore, cash the SA & play for 9 tricks.

[inquiry]

Ok.. now change the contract to 4♠ and imps. How would you play?

Ben

[Trpltrbl]

inquiry, on Jan 27 2004, 07:24 PM, said:

Ok.. now change the contract to 4♠ and imps. How would you play?

Ben

finesse.

Mike

[Free]

play ♠Q, to weapon yourself against a 3-0 distribution in ♠s More you can't do...

[Poky]

It seems LHO has 2227 or 3217 shape. 2227 is more probably cause a diamond wasn't led.

Just in case LHO may err to cover with K10x, I'll lead the ♠9. If that isn't covered, I'll play the ♠J. If this surrend a trick to RHO then I'll ruff a ♥ high.

Leading the ♠Q is risky cause I can surrend 2 trump tricks (singleton ♠K and ♠10 overruff).

[cherdano]

Cave_Draco, on Jan 28 2004, 12:06 AM, said:

4S played by North seems a good & reasonable contract that most Weak NT players will find!

If 4S makes, 2S+2 is a poor score... So I assume that 4S doesn't make!

Therefore, cash the SA & play for 9 tricks.

I think this reasoning is invalid. If 4S makes, you loose to the game bidders whatever you do. If it does not make, you win against them anyway (I doubt you will find a way to go down in 2♠ )

So you should just ignore the game bidders and play against everyone who is in a part score, too.

[jdulmage]

cherdano, on Jan 28 2004, 07:35 AM, said:

Cave_Draco, on Jan 28 2004, 12:06 AM, said:

4S played by North seems a good & reasonable contract that most Weak NT players will find!

If 4S makes, 2S+2 is a poor score... So I assume that 4S doesn't make!

Therefore, cash the SA & play for 9 tricks.

I think this reasoning is invalid. If 4S makes, you loose to the game bidders whatever you do. If it does not make, you win against them anyway (I doubt you will find a way to go down in 2♠ )

So you should just ignore the game bidders and play against everyone who is in a part score, too.

I agree with that. If everyone bid game here, you are already dead. But if some or most did not, you will want to maximize the trick taking and others will be thinking the same as you, so go for 10 tricks.

[Cave_Draco]

Cave_Draco, on Jan 28 2004, 12:06 AM, said:

This strikes me as a "room" question, .

4S played by North seems a good & reasonable contract that most Weak NT players will find!

If 4S makes, 2S+2 is a poor score... So I assume that 4S doesn't make!

Therefore, cash the SA & play for 9 tricks.

My apologies for lack of clarity.

The first sentence is the key, .

If the "room" is playing Strong NT then 4♠ by NORTH is an unusual contract, even tho' it has excellent chances!

If the "room" is playing Weak NT then 2♠ by SOUTH is a poor contract.

If the "room" is 50/50? 4♠ played by South is inferior to 4♠ played by North, IMO.


This looks like a hand to minimise losses, some pairs may end up in 4♠ by South... That is the 4♠ that mustn't make if I am to minimise my losses!
By trying to make 2♠+2, I am not only yielding to 4♠ by North but also to 4♠ by South.

[inquiry]

Interesting replies.

First to the point about people being in 4♠. The fact is, if you are in 2♠ you can do nothing about them. They either make or don't make, and it doesn't affect your score. The people you are competing against are those in 2/3♠ as noted above. The question of what is the "right" way to play the ♠ suit is open for interpretation. Here is the situation, imagine 13 tables, the other 12 pairs, 6 are in game, 6 are not. You either win 6 MP or not against the people in game, nothing you can do about that. So let's examine the people not in game. Let's assume half of them think if ♠ hook wins I get a bad board so they play for the drop, the other half, go for the ♠ hook. If 4S makes, you will win 1.5 mp for playing for the drop, and 4.5 if you finesse. On the other hand, if the singleton king exist, you will win 10.5 MP if you drop it but 7.5 if you lose the hook.

What does this math say? It says you win 3 MP when you guess right, and lose 3MP when you guess wrong. So if you want the maximium score possible for you, playing for the stiff king gets you 10.5 but risk giving you 1.5. Playing for the king onside gets y ou either a 4.5 or 7.5. The odds favor the hook over the drop (you always win if EAST has Kx of spades). There is a potential gotcha-if you lead the ♠Queen mentioned by Poky.