[kgr]

Scoring: IMP

p-1NT
3NT

---

You play 3NT without opps bidding.
LHO leads ♠6 for RHO's ♠A.
RHO returns ♠8 for your K and LHO plays the 2.
Is it best to play on ♦ or on ♣ now? And how do you play the suit choosen?
(..no clue or anything spectacular. I just wonder which suit gives the best chanches).

Thanks,
Koen

[mink]

I would start with ♦A and ♦Q. If ♦ split 3-2 and RHO has the ♦K, I am home. If not, I can still try the ♣ finesse and hope clubs are 3-3.

Karl

[lowerline]

kgr, on Aug 3 2007, 04:36 AM, said:

Scoring: IMP

p-1NT
3NT

---

You play 3NT without opps bidding.
LHO leads ♠6 for RHO's ♠A.
RHO returns ♠8 for your K and LHO plays the 2.
Is it best to play on ♦ or on ♣ now? And how do you play the suit choosen?
(..no clue or anything spectacular. I just wonder which suit gives the best chanches).

Thanks,
Koen

Clubs 3-3 or 4-2 with the Q on your left = 60%
Diamonds not worse than 4-1 and the K on your right = 48%

There is a combination play which gives you around 67% chance for success by playing a ♦ to the 9. When you are back in with a ♠, you play ♣K, ♣ to J. If this looses, RHO will probably play hearts (as he has no spades left). Now you play a ♦ to A and ♣A. If clubs aren't 3-3, play a ♦ to the Q. This play also wins when RHO has ♣Q-doubleton and the ♦K.

Steven

[Free]

How do you get to 60%?

I'd play on ♦, A followed by small to the Q.

[bid_em_up]

Free, on Aug 3 2007, 08:34 AM, said:

How do you get to 60%?

I'd play on ♦, A followed by small to the Q.

3-3 break = 35.5%

plus

4-2 breaks = 48.5%

4-2 breaks with Queen onside (50% of 4-2 breaks) = 48.5/2 = 24.25%

35.5% + 24.25% = 59.75% (round up).

[ralph23]

♣♦♥♠ deleted

[cherdano]

Play on clubs first, ♣K, club to Jack. If this wins and clubs are not 5-1, you are through. If this loses, you take the likely spade return, diamond to ace, test clubs, and play a diamond to the queen. Doesn't this combine all the chances we have in the minors?

[jtfanclub]

cherdano, on Aug 3 2007, 11:11 AM, said:

Play on clubs first, ♣K, club to Jack. If this wins and clubs are not 5-1, you are through. If this loses, you take the likely spade return, diamond to ace, test clubs, and play a diamond to the queen. Doesn't this combine all the chances we have in the minors?

Disagree. Play diamonds first.

West has promised 5 spades. You can afford to lose a trick to either side now, win the spade return, and then finesse clubs, East will be out of spades, and may not have a diamond entry.

I would go for a diamond to the 9, win the spade return, king of clubs, finesse the club.

[FrancesHinden]

This is very good problem.
It looks as if spades are 5-3, so you have to combine chances the best way you can.

Line 1
-------
King of clubs, club to the Jack. Win the return, diamond to the ace, ace of clubs. If clubs do not come in, play for diamonds 3-2 with the king onside.

That makes when
- clubs are 3-3
- clubs are 4-2 with the queen onside
(combined 58% given we know spades are 5-3)

or

diamonds 3-2 with the K onside, or singleton K on our left
(combined 39%)

The chance of going off is thus 0.42 * 0.61 or roughly 75% chance of making
(some 5-0 club breaks are interesting)

Line 2
--------
Go all out for the diamonds.
We can afford to lose two diamond tricks as long as we don't lose the second one to LHO.

So Ace of diamonds, run the 9 of diamonds.
This makes on:

- all 3-2 breaks with 3 on our right
- Kx on our right
- all 4-1 breaks with length on our right

for a total of 71%

But is also makes when LHO has 4 diamonds and clubs are 3-3 with the Queen onside, for another 1% (sorry, by the time LHO has 5 spades and 4 diamonds he doesn't have 3 clubs to the queen very often).

If spades are 6-2 - which they could be - the odds of this line improve to 77%

Pretty close between this line and the club line. Some 5-0 diamond breaks are interesting as well...

Line 3
--------
Try and combine chances

Diamond, planning to put the 9 in if LHO follows low. If an honour goes in on our left we probably assume it is not KJ10 and win the ace and continue diamonds (but I could be wrong here)
If a spade comes back we are very well placed. Win, and play king of clubs, club to the jack. Win the next return, ace of diamonds, ace of clubs. If clubs come in, good, otherwise a diamond towards the queen.

This looks as if it makes
- every time clubs come in (58%), plus

- all 3-2 diamonds with length on our right
- all singleton diamond honours on our left
- Kx diamonds on our right

combined chances of those are 63%

this combines to 1 - (0.42 * 0.37) or 84%

This looks great, but what if RHO doesn't play a spade back on winning the D9, but instead a heart?

Now we can't do everything: win the heart, king of clubs, club to the jack and queen, heart back, diamond to the ace, diamond and someone has either spades or hearts to cash. So this is actually a worse line than the first one.

I'm sticking with either 1 or 2, they look very close indeed to me and the determining factor is probably how likely it is that spades are 6-2.

[FrancesHinden]

jtfanclub, on Aug 3 2007, 05:25 PM, said:

I would go for a diamond to the 9, win the spade return, king of clubs, finesse the club.

Sorry.
RHO, looking at various hands such as Axx QJxxx K10x Qx plays a heart back on winning the first diamond.

[jtfanclub]

FrancesHinden, on Aug 3 2007, 11:44 AM, said:

jtfanclub, on Aug 3 2007, 05:25 PM, said:

I would go for a diamond to the 9, win the spade return, king of clubs, finesse the club.

Sorry.
RHO, looking at various hands such as Axx QJxxx K10x Qx plays a heart back on winning the first diamond.

If he plays a heart back, I can afford to keep on attacking diamonds.

[cherdano]

jtfanclub, on Aug 3 2007, 11:15 AM, said:

FrancesHinden, on Aug 3 2007, 11:44 AM, said:

jtfanclub, on Aug 3 2007, 05:25 PM, said:

I would go for a diamond to the 9, win the spade return, king of clubs, finesse the club.

Sorry.
RHO, looking at various hands such as Axx QJxxx K10x Qx plays a heart back on winning the first diamond.

If he plays a heart back, I can afford to keep on attacking diamonds.

Then you go down on layouts with 4-1 diamonds and clubs playing for four tricks. Essentially you are playing for combined chances in case of a spade return, and "nothing terrible in diamonds or clubs running immediately" in case of a heart return. In theory this is worse than Frances' other lines, but in practice? No idea...

[Fluffy]

FrancesHinden, on Aug 3 2007, 04:41 PM, said:

Line 3
--------
Try and combine chances

Diamond, planning to put the 9 in if LHO follows low. If an honour goes in on our left we probably assume it is not KJ10 and win the ace and continue diamonds (but I could be wrong here)
If a spade comes back we are very well placed. Win, and play king of clubs, club to the jack. Win the next return, ace of diamonds, ace of clubs. If clubs come in, good, otherwise a diamond towards the queen.

If you took ♦A you cannot try clubs since you are now entryless to dummy.

[FrancesHinden]

Fluffy, on Aug 3 2007, 11:13 PM, said:

FrancesHinden, on Aug 3 2007, 04:41 PM, said:

Line 3
--------
Try and combine chances

Diamond, planning to put the 9 in if LHO follows low. If an honour goes in on our left we probably assume it is not KJ10 and win the ace and continue diamonds (but I could be wrong here)
If a spade comes back we are very well placed. Win, and play king of clubs, club to the jack. Win the next return, ace of diamonds, ace of clubs.  If clubs come in, good, otherwise a diamond towards the queen.

If you took ♦A you cannot try clubs since you are now entryless to dummy.

Yes, I said if an honour goes in on the first diamond you assume it is not from precisely KJ10 and continue playing on diamonds.

You could also duck if an honour goes in, but given that spades are 5-3 this feels wrong, as it gives up on all singleton honours.

[jtfanclub]

cherdano, on Aug 3 2007, 02:35 PM, said:

Then you go down on layouts with 4-1 diamonds and clubs playing for four tricks. Essentially you are playing for combined chances in case of a spade return, and "nothing terrible in diamonds or clubs running immediately" in case of a heart return. In theory this is worse than Frances' other lines, but in practice? No idea...

Not really.

I play a diamond to the 9, ducking if West covers. Next card is a heart. I win it, play another diamond towards dummy. West shows out? No problem. Win the ace, diamond back to the Q8x. I win 3 diamonds and two of each other suit, losing two diamonds a spade, and maybe a club or heart at the end. If East is out? Well, I still win when the clubs break 3-2 and the Queen is with West. So the odds are better than it looks.

There's only one diamond split that kills me, and that's 4-1 with East having the singleton J or T. With 5-0, I know after the first diamond, so plenty of time to switch. With 4-1 with East with the 4, I just pick up the obvious finesse. And with 4-1 with East having the K,7, or 2, my deep finesse wins it for me.

I don't know exactly what my odds are, but they don't have me running for the hills any time soon.

[cherdano]

jtfanclub, on Aug 3 2007, 05:18 PM, said:

cherdano, on Aug 3 2007, 02:35 PM, said:

Then you go down on layouts with 4-1 diamonds and clubs playing for four tricks. Essentially you are playing for combined chances in case of a spade return, and "nothing terrible in diamonds or clubs running immediately" in case of a heart return. In theory this is worse than Frances' other lines, but in practice? No idea...

Not really.

I play a diamond to the 9, ducking if West covers. Next card is a heart. I win it, play another diamond towards dummy. West shows out? No problem. Win the ace, diamond back to the Q8x. I win 3 diamonds and two of each other suit, losing two diamonds a spade, and maybe a club or heart at the end. If East is out? Well, I still win when the clubs break 3-2 and the Queen is with West. So the odds are better than it looks.

I suppose you mean ♣3-3 with the queen on West, which I called "clubs running immediately", and which is ~18% only. Anyway, I am still not sure what your exact line is, but if you duck a diamond honor, West continues a spade, you also lost to ♦KJT with West (unless clubs are running).

[kgr]

Scoring: IMP

---

Thanks all for the answers!! (I should have known that bridge is more then asking ♣ or ♦ )
I started with a ♦ to A and ♦ back for the Q for -1.
Seems like a big disadvantage of playing the ♦A is that you don't have an entry anymore to develop ♣'s if the are 4-1 with the Q well placed.
..Not sure if a time will ever come that a will do this better at the table. Don't think that I can calculate all these possibilities at the table

Thanks,
Koen

[jtfanclub]

cherdano, on Aug 3 2007, 09:42 PM, said:

I suppose you mean ♣3-3 with the queen on West, which I called "clubs running immediately", and which is ~18% only. Anyway, I am still not sure what your exact line is, but if you duck a diamond honor, West continues a spade, you also lost to ♦KJT with West (unless clubs are running).

Arrrgh.

Low diamond towards the nine, do not cover if West plays an honor.

If whoever continues a SPADE, I work on CLUBS, because East is out of spades and I can guarantee that any clubs lost are lost to East.

If whoever continues a HEART, then I continue with DIAMONDS, because I can afford one more loser with West, because I still have a spade stop.

I already went through what I do with a spade return the first time I posted. Then I went through a heart return. Now we're back where we started.

Ducking a diamond now doesn't hurt me. Ducking a diamond to West once the spades are established is game over.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Edited to add: Take the actual case.

2nd trick, duck a diamond who whomever.

If whomever returns a heart, I play a top heart, diamond to the ace, diamond back, end up with 3 diamonds, 2 spades, 2 hearts, and 3 clubs for 10 tricks, since the club finessee is unneeded. Lose one spade and two diamonds.

If whomever plays back a spade, I win the return, play the king of clubs and a club towards the AJ, capturing the queen, then play the jack of clubs and surrender a club. Since East is out of spades, he has to return a red suit, and I take 1 diamond, 2 spades, 2 hearts, and 4 clubs for 9 tricks.

If the return is a spade, then I win whenever I can set up the clubs. I've lost nothing by playing a diamond first.

[FrancesHinden]

I've now thought of another line, that looks a bit strange:
Cross to the ace of clubs and play a diamond to the 8.
Win the spade* return and play a diamond towards the 9, covering LHO's card and playing a third round.

What does this do for various diamond holdings?
- It picks up all 3-2 diamond breaks except KJ10 on your left
- It picks up all 4-1 diamond breaks with length on your right (even if you lost to singleton honour on your left, you only have one more loser)
- It also picks up 5-0 diamonds on your right

With spades 5-3, these three add up to over 88%. If spades are 6-2 they are even better.

*If they don't play a spade back, you still play a diamond towards the 9, but now you are picking up 4-1 with length on your left as well as everything else. But that would be a mis-defence. The only genuine extra chance is spades 6-2 and singleton diamond king on your right. I think we can ignore that for the odds calculation.

That's better than everything anyone has thought of so far, I think.

Can it be improved even further?
You'd quite like to cash the CK as well, incase someone has Qx of clubs. The problem is that after CK, CA, diamond to the 8, heart back, diamond to the 9, heart back, you can't get back to hand to cash the diamonds. So if they happen to play a spade back after winning the first diamond, it isn't going to cost to cash the CK before playing another diamond. That's another mild misdefence-extra-chance.

I'm sticking with this line!