[awm]

Scoring: IMP

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Three questions:

(1) Do you want to be in slam on this hand? The scoring is IMPs, strong opponents.

(2) How would you bid these cards in your preferred methods? Opponents are passing, north is dealer.

(3) How would you plan the play in 6♦ by north on a trump lead, dummy's nine holding the first trick as both opponents follow?

[bhall]

1) Slam. However good the opps may be, they will often have leads that appear better than a trump. And even with a trump lead, the holder of the ♠A must have a second trump to lead when he wins it.

2)Badly. Minotaur would likely end in 3N on the auction:

2♦ - 6+ ♦, 10-14
2N - 5+ ♥, at least invitational values
3♦ - No fit, no ♣ suit, minimum high cards
3N

An adventurous N might raise to 4N, showing 7 running ♦. S might then chance 6♦, but I doubt it.

3) Ruff a ♥, lead to ♠K. If that loses and a ♦ is returned, go for the double squeeze; without a ♦ return, play to ruff the 3rd spade. If the K wins, ruff a second ♥ and pull trump, hoping for ♥s 4-3 or a squeeze without the count.

[kenrexford]

1. Do I want to be in slam?

Not sure. I'm having trouble calculating all of the odds and accounting for any number of lead options. I seem to think that I'd like, on average, to declare 6♦ in the South hand, unless I get this nice diamond lead.

2. Auction in my preferred methods?


This is tough, also. On a bad day, I might decide to do something stupid with the North hand, like opening 3NT. That creates a strange auction. Responder can count seven diamond tricks, a club, and two hearts, which gets us up to 10. If the spade is right, 11. If the hearts come in for an extra trick, 12. He might stab at 4♦ (asking for a shortness control), which achieves 4♥, which is not the hoped-for 5♣ (other minor -- 4NT says "nope"). But, that was more expected. Alternatively, Responder could just blast, as a stiff is actually neither needed nor desired in hearts. This gets 6♦ "right-sided."

Alternatively, Opener starts with 1♦.
Responder 1♥.
Opener 1♠.
Responder 2♣ (GF, artificial).
Opener 2♦.
Responder 2♥.
Opener 3♦.
Responder 3♠ (notrump probe).
Opener 3NT.
Pass-Pass-Pass.

3. Play of the Hand.

I like bhall's line.

[jtfanclub]

bhall, on Jul 29 2007, 10:18 AM, said:

3) Ruff a ♥, lead to ♠K. If that loses and a ♦ is returned, go for the double squeeze; without a ♦ return, play to ruff the 3rd spade.

And what are you going to do with the 4th spade?

They return a club. You win it (or else you're down). Play the ace hearts, sluffing a club. Ruff a club. Ruff a spade. Play the king of hearts...and it's ruffed on your right. Oops. You can overruff if you want, but you'll never find a parking spot for your last spade.

AK of hearts and ruffing a heart increases your odds...at least you can handle 5-2 with shortness on your left. AK of hearts and ruffing a heart high seems to me to increase it even further: if it turns out that RHO has 4+ hearts, and leads a heart back when he wins the ace of spades, you have to guess whether to ruff high (diamonds were 2-2) or low (diamonds were 3-1 with RHO having the 3).

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on Jul 29 2007, 01:49 PM, said:

I would definitely want to be there.

Dunno how my auction would go but it would start 1D-1H-1S-2C-3D.

You know, I thought about that auction, but I'm just not sure of something. What hand type is shown by 1♦....1♠...3♦ instead of 1♦...1♠...2♦...3♦? I thought I might need the spade King or Ace for the immediate jump, but possibly lighter diamonds (AQJxxxx or AKJxxxx, perhaps). That may be backwards, of course.

If you start the way shown, it seems that Responder will rebid 3♥ (he would prefer 4♥ is Opener has even stiff Queen), and Opener will rebid 3♠ for lack of anything more appealing to bid, no? It seems that the precise parameters for the 3♦ delayed jump rebid will now kick in.

[helene_t]

I'm sure I wpuld screw it up if I were in slam but fortunately my auction would be
3N-pass

or maybe

1♦-1♥
1♠-3♥(forcing)
3♠-3N
pass

[pbleighton]

Quote

Dunno how my auction would go but it would start 1D-1H-1S-2C-3D.

Mine too, and it would finish with 3NT, and quite possibly a bad score.

Peter

[mike777]

Another 7-4 hand I open 5D.

[Halo]

1. No, objectively I don't want to be in slam.

2. Expect to end up in 3NT whatever I bid.

3. Ruff a heart, draw trumps, spade to the king

[pclayton]

edited

[awm]

My evaluation was that on a trump lead, using a line like bhall's you basically need hearts 4-3 and either the spade ace onside (providing an extra dummy entry to ruff out the hearts) or the spade ace in the hand with singleton trump (giving you time to ruff the third spade), which combines to roughly a 1/3 chance of success. Even on a non-trump lead, the contract is not cold. The most likely line involves trying to ruff a spade in dummy, which requires diamonds not 4-0 (you're basically always sunk if diamonds 4-0) as well as spades breaking 4-3 or 5-2 with the diamond jack accompanying the long spades. This is roughly 2/3 odds as best I can tell.

Anyways, I didn't mind missing this slam. I don't know what the odds of a trump lead are (probably depends on the auction) so judging exactly how good the slam will be is tough. Seemed like a "take it or leave it" kind of thing. Anyways, our auction was not the best:

2♦(1) - 3♥(2)
3NT - Pass

(1) 10-15 hcp and 6+♦
(2) At least 6♥ and game forcing

We could perhaps bid better by going slowly (starting with a forcing 2♥ response) but in any case it's not clear we will get there. The opponents made a lot more bids (starting from 1♦) and reached 6♦, but it's not clear their auction was so great or that they're even in the better spot. Of course, the spade ace was with singleton diamond, both majors broke 4-3, and our teammates didn't even find the trump lead in any case.