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Discussing Bidding Theory-1 Dist hands with few hcp

#21 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 09:10

Halo, on May 4 2007, 09:36 AM, said:

I come from a rule of 19 environment and would open:

AQxxx,Axxx,xxx,x

Guys, this thread is not about this hand type ok. See my first post, It is meant to be about hands around 8-13 hcp or so with a 6 card suit. 2 suited is very possible.
Dist. hands with weak(ish) hcp.

I did not mean to bring up the issue of opening 2 suited hands at the 2 level with only a 5 card holding. :)

You are either going to open at the one level or two level with almost all these hands. As I said in the USA most open at the one level. I just wondered about the upside as well as downside to this approach as opposed to opening these one level bids with a two level bid.

Please note I am not pushing one way over another but I do enjoy players such as Richard, Ben and Josh and others expressing their viewpoints. Thanks.
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#22 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 09:13

inquiry, on May 4 2007, 09:55 AM, said:

what would you open with

x
AJ9xxx
xxx
Axx

When played in 2003 Bermuda bowl and venice cup finals, three tables  opened 1H. One table was Merkwell, so no surprise, other was Lauria with versace. I don't remember which woman pair opened 1H.

Good example. In first or second seat it seems opening 2H with this hand would be ok or pass at unfav vul.

Granted meckwell is a strong club, limited one level, system so not surprised. :)
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#23 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 09:23

To further stir the pot :) and hopefully get some feedback here are some extreme examples of hands I assume most experts would open at the one level and not with a weak(ish) two level bid, why or why not?

VOID...AKT9xx....xx....QJxxx

AJTxxx..KJTxx...x....x

xx...QJxx...AKT98x...x

x....QJTxxx...x....AKxxx

x....QTxxx...AKTxxx...x
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#24 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 09:32

mike777, on May 4 2007, 10:23 AM, said:

To further stir the pot :) and hopefully get some feedback here are some extreme examples of hands I assume most experts would open at the one level and not with a weak two level bid, why or why not?

Well, it is no surprise that my style can be characterized as almost always opening a hand with 26 ZAR points, and with 25 if I hold spades. There are a few exceptions, and I make some corrections to ZAR count (recommended by him and experience).


VOID...AKT9xx....xx....QJxxx

Easy, open 1H, no brainer. In inquiry 2/1 I actually open this one 2H, which shows a minimum normal opening hand with hearts and clubs. Makes riton 2C rebid useful to get the club hands (min) out of the way. For Zar 10 hcp, 3 Control points, 16 distributional points, 29 ZAR points. Way more than needed. Exchange club QJ for xx in club, I would open 2D (multi) despite the 26 ZAR points that might suggest ok for 1H.

AJTxxx..KJTxx...x....x

Easy, open 1S. 9 HCP, 3 control points. 16 DP = 28 Zar points. Only need 25 when holding spades.

xx...QJxx...AKT98x...x

1D, 27 Zar points, still no problem.

x....QJTxxx...x....AKxxx

1H (well in inquiry2/1 2H which shows opening hand, with clubs and hearts, min values for opening bid).


x....QTxxx...AKTxxx...x

1D or 1H, depends a bit on partner and what seat I am in, but I do open.
--Ben--

#25 User is offline   Gerben42 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 09:34

Quote

I don't remember which woman pair opened 1H.


As this was USA vs China I would guess the Chinese since they play strong Club.
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#26 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 09:44

mike777, on May 3 2007, 06:14 PM, said:

Please note here I am only discussing Dist. hands. with few hcp and why opening them at the one level is better than the two level. In both cases you are opening the bidding. In both cases you are bidding first.

Mike, you began with an original post that said you were discussing the opening of distributional hands with less than 13/14 hcp and now you say you intend to discuss distributional hands with few hcp. Those categories are not the same, at least not for the vast, vast majority of bridge players.

AQ10xxx A10xx xx x: maybe Grannovetter might open 2 (he plays an ultra-sound style from the reports I have read) but I doubt any other world class player would not open 1 playing a standard based method.... which eliminates methods such as Fantunes from discussion.

AQJxxx Kxx xxx x: I would open 1

xx xxx AKQJxxx x: I suspect the majority of experts would open 1 in 1st seat and probably 2nd as well.

Note that you will not see me (nor many experts) explain these openings by reference to the Rule of 20 or 19 or what have you.

KQJxxx QJx Jxx x: the same hcp as my first example, but now I think the vast majority would open 2, not 1...

As Hrothgar noted, this is a complex area and I suspect that different players would use different rationalizations for the same decision.

My considerations include:

Aces and Kings: 3+ controls suggest (but do not always require) a one bid

Rebid problems

Losing Trick Count

Spot cards.. I love 10's and 109 combinations.... yet the Work point count (the 4321 method) ignores these holdings

In and out valuation: cards in long suits are good, cards in short suits, not so good.

I have read that some players refuse to accept that there are hands that are too strong for a weak two and yet not right for a 1-level opening... when holding a 6 card (non-club) suit. I disagree. So for me, the choice is not always open 1 or open 2: sometimes (altho not often) it includes pass as an option... altho then I consider whether I am going to be uncomfortable if partner opens in 3rd or 4th chair.

I guess that what I am saying is that:

1) I agree with those who say that your criteria are about 2 hcp higher (for an opening bid) than the current popular view

2) the current popular view reflects the approaches of the most successful players in the world: note that bidding methods exist in a Darwinian environment, so we can assume that the more-aggressive-than-Mike777 approach has earned its place

3) no good player (to my knowledge) uses a simplistic metric as a go/no go method

4) hand valuation is a complex subject in which there is room for different weighting to different factors, including partnership methods and personality types

While I have never played Acol seriously, my suspicion is that this method, which contains less early committal calls, probably caters to light shapely openings better than does a strict 2/1. I also suspect that light openings in a strict 2/1, on shapely hands that can degenerate into misfitting nightmares, are more costly at mps than at imps..... so if I were to make a style choice, I would probably tend to be a little more conservative on my 1-level light openings in 1st and 2nd seat at mps.
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#27 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 09:50

Yes I see that my "topic comment" which I used as a header does not show up. I guess on the forum "topic headers" do not show up to all.

Yes I meant, 6 card suit and around 8-13 hcp...
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#28 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 09:57

mike777, on May 4 2007, 10:50 AM, said:

Yes I see that my "topic comment" which I used as a header does not show up. I guess on the forum "topic headers" do not show up to all.

Yes I meant, 6 card suit and around 8-13 hcp...

I seriously doubt that you will find many buyers for the notion that a 1st or 2nd seat weak two, in standard bidding methods, could contain a 6 card suit with 13 hcp... nor 12... some horrible 11's, yes.. but you remain 2 hcp higher than the world standard. Why? I am interested in knowing if this is a considered-choice or whether it is a holdover from having come under the spell of the good Dr. Roth at an impressionable age :)
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#29 User is offline   pbleighton 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 10:08

Quote

Yes I meant, 6 card suit and around 8-13 hcp...


Mike, what is your question/appraoch for the hands in the 12-mediocre 13 range which most people except for you are opening. Are you assuming we should all pass them?

Peter
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#30 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 10:08

mikeh, on May 4 2007, 10:57 AM, said:

mike777, on May 4 2007, 10:50 AM, said:

Yes I see that my "topic comment" which I used as a header does not show up.  I guess on the forum "topic headers" do not show up to all.

Yes I meant, 6 card suit and around 8-13 hcp...

I seriously doubt that you will find many buyers for the notion that a 1st or 2nd seat weak two, in standard bidding methods, could contain a 6 card suit with 13 hcp... nor 12... some horrible 11's, yes.. but you remain 2 hcp higher than the world standard. Why? I am interested in knowing if this is a considered-choice or whether it is a holdover from having come under the spell of the good Dr. Roth at an impressionable age B)

Thanks for comment, as I repeated I am not pushing anything, I do think simply accepting we need to open these hands as a one level bid without knowing the upside or downside of our other choices should be discussed in detail.

Dr. Roth has many ideas that were accepted and many that were not over the decades, I enjoy finding out why or why not. :)
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#31 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 10:09

pbleighton, on May 4 2007, 11:08 AM, said:

Quote

Yes I meant, 6 card suit and around 8-13 hcp...


Mike, what is your question/appraoch for the hands in the 12-mediocre 13 range which most people except for you are opening. Are you assuming we should all pass them?

Peter

If you mean without a 6 card suit..some 5-5, 5-4 or balanced, Roth would say yes, almost always yes with some rare exceptions but that is another thread.
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#32 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 10:19

Well, let me try to explain Zar's point of view, and my take on his view. I opened light hands long before I ever heard of ZAR, but his rules matched failry closely with my views.

Zar requires 26 Zar points for an opening bid. This includes preempts. So he will open 2H, or 3H, or 4H all promise at least 26 zar points (2S only promises 25). I suspect this is in part because opening bids with less than some mandatory minimum HCP is a violation of the rules on what you can open one of suit with.

As I showed in an earlier example, a hand only 9 hcp was opened 1H by three out of four people in the finals of a world championshiop. That hand total 27 ZAR points, and I think ZAR would have voted to open that one with 2H, which after all for him promises 26+ Zar points and six card suit (this is my recollection of is methods). I open that 1H. There are hands that total 26 or more ZARs that I will preempt on, but they are all flawed one way or the other, or I am VUL (where my preempts are better). But I open MOST 26 Zar point hands (and a few 25). But I am not religious about this. I pass some too. ACES and KING are valued higher in ZAR, but I also use HCP in long suits as added plus, in short suits as a minus. So I open 1H with x AJ9xxx xxx Axx, but I pass with A J9xxxx Ax xxxx. These hands have the same ZAR points and same distribution, but surely you can see the difference.
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#33 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 10:46

mike777, on May 4 2007, 11:08 AM, said:

mikeh, on May 4 2007, 10:57 AM, said:

mike777, on May 4 2007, 10:50 AM, said:

Yes I see that my "topic comment" which I used as a header does not show up.  I guess on the forum "topic headers" do not show up to all.

Yes I meant, 6 card suit and around 8-13 hcp...

I seriously doubt that you will find many buyers for the notion that a 1st or 2nd seat weak two, in standard bidding methods, could contain a 6 card suit with 13 hcp... nor 12... some horrible 11's, yes.. but you remain 2 hcp higher than the world standard. Why? I am interested in knowing if this is a considered-choice or whether it is a holdover from having come under the spell of the good Dr. Roth at an impressionable age B)

Thanks for comment, as I repeated I am not pushing anything, I do think simply accepting we need to open these hands as a one level bid without knowing the upside or downside of our other choices should be discussed in detail.

Dr. Roth has many ideas that were accepted and many that were not over the decades, I enjoy finding out why or why not. :)

As an earlier poster said, referring to Rodwell, there is a good argument for conservative 1st and 2nd seat opening bids IF the opps promise to stay silent. We would need to open light in 3rd and 4th to balance this approach, else we may find ourselves passing out 26 hcp hands.

Having high requirements for an opening bid narrows the range covered by that bid, since the range between a 1 bid and a 2 opener is reduced. This cannot but have salutary impact on the accuracy of our constructive bidding once we do have an opening hand.

In Dr. Roth's day, there were far more uncontested auctions than we have these days. Indeed, he was one of the driving forces behind such revolutionary tactics as weak jump overcalls, weak two bids, and the unusual 2n overcall (which I think was first mentioned in print in an article by Sonny Moyse reporting on the Nationals held in Florida in 1948... when he attributed the concept to a discussion he had with a rising young expert by the name of Alvin Roth.

Back then, opening preempts were, by today's standards, ultra-sound... which in turn meant that they were infrequent. Jump overcalls were strong. Cuebid overcalls were strong takeouts: showing approximately a 2 opening, and so were also extremely infrequent and so on. Overcalling required a good suit and (by today's standard) a decent hand.

Thus, if we passed with 13 hcp, there was an excellent chance that partner, if blessed with 11 or so, could open untroubled by 2nd seat preempting or opening light. And when 3rd seat did open opposite our passed hand monster, the odds were that 4th seat would remind silent.

But today (and for at least the past 30 years), most players, even average players, get into the auction with any excuse. I remember, years ago, my partner opened at the 1-level with 9 hcp, protected by playing a home-grown big club method. I stretched my response on a 4 count and partner of course bid again. I passed, and the opps balanced and missed game. They were no better than we were back then and I am not claiming that we were brilliant.. but I still remember declarer's comment when dummy hit: 'These guys took 3 bids before we got into the auction, and we have 27 hcp!'

While that kind of scenario will rarely work today against good players, it will still work better than 'pass - pass' will work, by taking away bidding space, by creating a degree of ambiguity otherwise absent, and by directing the lead or allowing for even more dramatic preemption: in Verona, against a good Swedish team, one of my team's few good boards came when a teammate psyched 1 on a zero count. His partner bid 3, a constructive 4 card raise. The red v white 4th hand held 21 hcp with 3=2=4=4 shape and the KQ tight of s. The bidding made perfect sense to him: LHO opens on 12 and RHO bounces on a decent 7 and so his partner has zero... and his best chance for a plus was to pass. Unfortunately +100 against 3 (it should have been 150) was not a good score compared to 1440 at the other table.

While that was an example of an outright psyche, the principle remains valid and applicable to light openings (and light responses). Destroy bidding space, maximize space consumption on light but fitting hands, and force the opps to deal with this barrage rather than give them a clear path to the best spot.

The downside is that the light opening, opposite a good but mis-fitting, hand will be driven too high, especially in the context of 2/1 methods. This is a price that cannot be ignored (some methods cater to this by limiting the range, but we are discussing standard methods, which do not). Experience has shown that the more active approach has been a consistent winner... those who succeed in big events generally play this style... so it appears that the downside of being aggressive does not outweigh the advantages.

Clearly, at least in theory, there must be a dividing line, beyond which the uncertainties caused to one's own constructive bidding by too-wide an opening range will offset the space-consumption benefits... which is why approaches such as EHAA (every hand an adventure) fizzled in, I think, the 70s or early 80s.
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#34 User is offline   pbleighton 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 11:05

Quote

Clearly, at least in theory, there must be a dividing line, beyond which the uncertainties caused to one's own constructive bidding by too-wide an opening range will offset the space-consumption benefits... which is why approaches such as EHAA (every hand an adventure) fizzled in, I think, the 70s or early 80s.


But has been reborn in a more sophisticated, *disciplined* B) incarnation by Mr. Fantoni and Mr. Nunes. EHAA two bids with a four point range are a VERY different animal than those with a 7 point range (where you really can't bid your games with any accuracy).

BTW good post as usual, mikeh.

Peter
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#35 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 11:12

While we are on the subject of bidding theory, anyone think Mr. Fantoni and Mr. Nunes system (FANTUNES) is ultra-sound theoretically, sound theoretically, a little unsound, or totaly unsound. Any opinions? I know a few posters here are playing it, so maybe a thread discussing its theoretical merits and demerits would be interesting.
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#36 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 11:22

inquiry, on May 4 2007, 12:12 PM, said:

While we are on the subject of bidding theory, anyone think Mr. Fantoni and Mr. Nunes system (FANTUNES) is ultra-sound theoretically, sound theoretically, a little unsound, or totaly unsound. Any opinions? I know a few posters here are playing it, so maybe a thread discussing its theoretical merits and demerits would be interesting.

People talk about this system a lot here. Can someone give a quick rundown of the opening bids and general style?
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#37 User is offline   pbleighton 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 11:25

I don't play F-N, I have played EHAA with 5 card majors, 10-13 NT, 14 bal/13 unbal openers, 9-12 2 bids, openers NF but we respond with 4 hcp. CLEARLY UNSOUND!!!!!

But effective B)

I've studied F-N but haven't played it. From what I can see, while it *less* unsound than my system, it will still be unsound, in that it will generate a high number of bad boards, and that it would clearly be a disaster in double-dummy bidding.

However, you have to admit it's effective, based on the results. I know they are wonderful card players, but so are their opponents.

Question: is any weak notrump system theoretically unsound?

Peter
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Posted 2007-May-04, 11:36

pbleighton, on May 4 2007, 12:25 PM, said:

However, you have to admit it's effective, based on the results. I know they are wonderful card players, but so are their opponents.

Bidding systems can be effective for a lot of reasons. One is that your opponents are unfamiliar with it. So their defensive bidding and defensive card play is not as sound as against familiar systems (can they draw the correct inferences, when they don't know the nuances of the system).
--Ben--

#39 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 11:41

Here's my understanding of Fantoni-Nunes basic system:

One-level suit openings are very sound. In general this means 14+ hcp, but they will open a bit lighter with a good two-suiter especially with both majors. In any case it's probably about 2-3 points sounder than what most other people are opening. These one level openings are basically natural (1M 5+, 1 4+ unbalanced, 1 2+) and are all forcing one round.

One notrump is basically natural and 12-14. However, they will open 1NT on many "off-shape" hands including some 4441s and 5431s as well as the more common 5422 and 6322 shapes. Usually they want to open hands that other "fairly sound" openers are opening and hands with weak suits (for example) tend to be unsuitable for the two-level openings.

Two-level suit openings are all intermediate. Typically the range is something like a good 9 to a bad 13. Usually these show five-plus cards in the suit, although at one point 2m could be four cards (it was the typical opening on 4414 with 12-13, now I think these more often open 1nt or pass). With very flat shape and/or a very weak primary suit they may pass or open 1NT instead.

The responses include: a lot of relays over the 2-level openings, 1NT response to 1M showing 0-9 points, two-of-new-suit responses to one-level openings are 10+ points, GF (this includes jump sequences like 1-2), Gazilli rebids by one-level opener to distinguish minimum and extra-valued opening bids, transfer responses to 1, some Garozzo-style relays in late rounds of GF auctions.

I think there are definite theoretical advantages to these methods. As openings have gotten lighter and lighter, a number of problems have arisen. It's become hard to double the opposition when they step out of line (which they do more and more often) because partner's opening bid could be on trash. People who have started playing strong club methods can be pretty vulnerable to preemption on their strong hands. On the other hand, these light-opening methods wouldn't have become popular if it wasn't valuable to be able to open these shapely 9-counts and 10-counts. Fantoni-Nunes takes an interesting balance by making the one-level openings sound and allowing a lot of the "light opening bids" that others are opening at the one-level to open at the two-level. Some of these tactics are pretty high-variance (12-14 NT at V is pretty high variance, the two-level openings can be pretty high-variance) but it's not clear that they are negative expectation and in exchange F-N are consistently better positioned than the field when opener does have a good hand.
Adam W. Meyerson
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#40 User is offline   pbleighton 

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Posted 2007-May-04, 12:52

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Bidding systems can be effective for a lot of reasons. One is that your opponents are unfamiliar with it. So their defensive bidding and defensive card play is not as sound as against familiar systems (can they draw the correct inferences, when they don't know the nuances of the system).


True, but do you really think this applies in the Bermuda Bowl?

Peter
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