[pclayton]

Scoring: IMP

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You play 3N (1N - 3N) and get the lead of the ♦9. RHO plays the 4 and you win the J.

You fire a ♦ back, 2 on left. You consider hooking the 7, but decide you want to keep you options intact and play the 10. RHO shows out

Curiously RHO pitches a small heart.

How do you proceed?

[whereagles]

RHO should have 5 hearts then. Hook the ♥9 now.

[mikeh]

The usual inference to be drawn from an early pitch is that it is from a 5 card suit: I think there was a good article on this in a BW a few years back.

But, before we leap to the conclusion that RHO has 5♥s, ask yourself what you would pitch from any 4=4=1=4 hands with weak ♥s? Say Q10xx 10xxx x KQxx.

Or what you would pitch from KQxx 10xx x KQ10xx.

You have to discount the '1st suit = 5 cards' by however you weigh these questions.

You might, against indifferent opps, have a clue from the tempo of the pitch... if it were fast, then the odds of the 5 card holding improve (imo), but if it were tortured at all, then there is a high likelihood of the 4=4=1=4 hand and even some of the 4=3=1=5 hand, where he didn't want to discard a potential setting trick from his chunky 5 card suit.

I confess that, in the partial vaccuum of the forum, I'd be likely to cash another ♦ to see what RHO pitched... this gives up on some remote endgame positions against LHO, but I can't see them comng true anyway, and maybe RHO will pitch another ♥: if he began with 5, he may conclude that this is best because the odds are that we are 4=3=2=4 or 3=3=2=5 rather than 3=4=2=4.

If he doesn't pitch another ♥, then I would still want to be at the table against most non-professional players.. but in the continued absence of table factors, I'd go with ♥A, ♥K and see where I am. In other words, while recognizing the legitiamacy of the 5 card suit rule, I don't think the 2-1 odds I get, via a 1st round hook of the 9, overcome the other distributional possibilities

[cherdano]

I don't like the immediate heart finesse. Even if you know the suit is 5-1 the odds favor the immediate finesse just by 60-40. In other words, if there is a 20% chance that the discard is not from a 5-card suit, it is already break even.

Having rejected the immediate finesse, I would duck a club. It has nothing to lose, and may gain whenever they don't find the spade shift, or on the rare endplay vs LHO.

[pclayton]

The opponents were idiots. I took the finesse of the 9 too. RHO seemed to be some sort of 4513 / 3514 and the heart hook seemed to be a big favorite.

RHO held: QJxx, Txxx, x, QJxx. LHO had: Kxxx, Jx, K98xx, Kx. What I'm half irked at is the fact that he ducked the diamond with zero concern. I think he would grab the K with just about any holding, so unless I'm losing to 8x (!) the hook of the beer seems right.

I guess if you don't realize you have a problem, then you don't have a problem.

[pclayton]

Jlall, on May 3 2007, 01:54 PM, said:

I think 9x is more likely than K98xx for a lead of the 9, especially given that you have chances even if it's K98xx and you play the ten whereas you're just dead if they led from 9x.

I know plus I have other options with 5-1 diamonds. But I knew RHO didnt have the King and I didn't trust my read.

[Fluffy]

I was also thinking about ♥ to the nine when I read the answers, don't know what I would do at the table.