DWM, on May 1 2007, 06:52 AM, said:
The South hand is strong enough to insist on slam opposite a game forcing raise unless there are two quick losers (either North has no club honor or more unlikely, no aces).
To determine that takes some experience or good hand evaluation. Losing Trick Count certainly works with this hand (South has a 4 loser hand, and that should suggest that a grand slam is possible opposite a forcing raise). Not everyone loves LTC, but other hand evaluation techniques should give the same answer.
Slams depend on a combination of strength, fit and controls. Bidding slams accurately requires evaluation and communication.
Strength - If we classify strength by approximately King size steps, we can say that opener and responder (having made a game forcing raise) each might have minimum, extra strength or maximum hands. Minimum opposite minimum are worth 10 tricks (i.e. game). If either player has a maximum, then 12 tricks are likely (assuming the opponents do not take 2 first). If both have extra strength, then that also should be worth 12 tricks. Of course, I chose fuzzy words deliberately - there are no hard boundaries. You might want to consider examining "Serious 3N" as a way to communicate extra strength to partner (but that is a rather advanced convention).
Fit - In addition to a trump fit, how well placed the other cards are has a great deal to do with your trick taking ability. Take the North hand and change the
♣A into a small card and change small red cards into queens - the strength remains fairly constant, but now there is too much diamond strength opposite the shortness and slam does not work. But exchange the
♦K with the small
♣ and 13 tricks are virtually certain (little wasted strength opposite the shortness).
Controls - RKC and cue bids will answer those questions if you have good methods. Again, this gets into advanced techniques. Try studying Fred's articles on improving 2/1 for good ideas.
The rebids you have outlined for the 2N forcing raise are the standard Jacoby 2N agreements. You definitely need to know those, but be aware that most experts consider them to be flawed (especially the jump to 4M with a minimum - that is a slam killer).
Also, note that singleton ace or king is a difficult holding. The singleton honor is not worth as much as if it were in a long suit (where you have choices about when you play it), and showing the singleton may cause your partner to downgrade honors in that suit when that is not appropriate (the
♦K will seem less valuable to responder if opener shows diamond shortness, but it will actually still be worth a trick). With a singleton king, it is likely to be correct to not show the shortness - a singleton ace requires more judgement.
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