[fred]

Nothing I can brag about happened at the tables I was playing at during the recent ACBL Spring NABC in St. Louis.

But there were plenty of interesting hands on vugraph from St. Louis. This one came from the 3rd quarter of the Vanderbilt semi-final match between Cayne and Henner-Welland.

Scoring: IMP

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At both tables there were largely arfiticial auctions in which North showed both majors and South didn't really show anything.

At one table North played in 7S.

At the other table South played in 7NT.

Spades were led at both tables.

All players were world class.

What do you think of the declarers' chances to make their respective contracts?

How do you think the play and defense should go?

If you saw this hand take place (or feel inclined to look up the record) please give others a chance to think about it by not immediately posting the "answer".

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[awm]

I think 7NT will probably be made and 7♠ will probably go down. Reason in hidden text.

Spoiler

In 7NT, south's hand is concealed from the defense. Declarer will probably start with four rounds of spades, hoping to get a count on the hand before guessing the hearts. West is forced to make two discards, and will not want to pitch two hearts (which could easily unguard the suit if declarer has only doubleton). A diamond pitch is potentially dangerous, because south could easily have Qxxx of diamonds. So west will probably pitch from the only suit he is not really guarding, clubs. At this point when south cashes all the minor suit winners, he will discover the club break on the third round. This reveals that east started with 3-1-3-6 or 3-0-4-6 shape, so south will cash the heart ace and play for singleton queen or ten on his right.

In 7S, the south hand is on the table. When west is forced to discard, he will know there is no threat in diamonds (since north has shown both majors and the south dummy has only three diamonds) and can safely pitch a diamond and a heart or two diamonds. Now declarer is unable to get a good count on the hand and will probably take the percentage play of finessing for the heart queen in the east hand.

[Apollo81]

(7NT) GL West with your discards on the third and fourth rounds of spades.

West is going to have a hard time not giving away his distribution in 7NT. It's way easier against 7♠N since the hand that has shown the majors is declaring. For one, West knows that he can pitch diamonds.

[skjaeran]

Apollo81, on Mar 28 2007, 10:02 PM, said:

(7NT) GL West with your discards on the third and fourth rounds of spades.

West is going to have a hard time not giving away his distribution in 7NT. It's way easier against 7♠N since the hand that has shown the majors is declaring. For one, West knows that he can pitch diamonds.

If west pitches two diamonds, declarer unblocks the ♣K and cashes three ♦'s ending in south. West will have to make another discard.

If he discards a club, declarer will get a complete count of the hand, so he's got to discard a heart.

Declarer then plays out his two ♣ winners, noting that west follows with the jack. Of cource that might be a false card. But the heart pitch will look curious. I'd guess declarer would get this right, and play west to be 2-4-4-3, and play the heart suit correctly on this layout, and thus make the contract.

[Nickboss]

I saw this hand on BBO at the time ..... and have bored everybody I know with it...
I think it is simply stunning....what gets me is, did one side know what contract to play from their auction.... or was it just chance?

[jdonn]

There is also a restricted choice argument for the 7NT player. Since west obviously led a "safe" major, he might have led a heart with only small cards in each. In fact maybe that in itself is a case to lead a minor on the actual hand vs. 7NT if west could convince himself one of them is safe.

[bid_em_up]

Nickboss, on Mar 28 2007, 04:42 PM, said:

I saw this hand on BBO at the time ..... and have bored everybody I know with it...
I think it is simply stunning....what gets me is, did one side know what contract to play from their auction.... or was it just chance?

Spoiler

It should not matter which contract you play. Both are makeable, just play 7S as you would 7N. When the hand was played at the time, I thought declarers chances should be 100% on the lie of the cards, since they are World Class declarers and defenders. But, if I remember correctly, they both proved me wrong by going down.

Win the opening lead, in NT, cash the minor suit winners first (pitching 2 hearts from the North hand), then the spades ending in the North hand. In spades, draw 3 rounds of trumps, then minor suit winners, then the last spade in the North hand.

In either contract, West will be able to pitch 1 diamond on the 3rd spade, but has nothing but hearts left to pitch on the last one.

Declarer should ask themselves,

Q. "Why is West pitching a heart here?".
A. "Because he has nothing else left to pitch, so he started with 4 hearts". This is the most likely answer, although there is another reason (see below).

You are now down to this position:

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When declarer leads a small heart towards the AJx and the 10 comes up, declarer should rise with the A, and then run the Jack. This contract should have been a lock for both declarers. If West has brightly pitched a heart from xx to plant the idea in my head that he started with 4 hearts (which a World Class defender may well do, since he knows I have a problem in hearts by this time), I pack my bags and go home.

I see no reason not to cash all the spades regardless of whether your contract is 7S or 7N. If the hearts are 3-2, you will still be on a guess when you get down to 3 cards. If you guess wrong at this point, you will be down 2 or 3. So what? But when West is forced to pitch a heart on the 4th spade, I will stake my chances on the fact that he held 4 hearts originally.

Why do the smilies and the hands not remain hidden, when imbedded in hidden text?

[kenrexford]

This is a neat hand. Almost an identical problem was the source of great discussion over drinks with a friend and partner of mine. Playing with someone else, he had occasion to make a play from the equivalent of xx in such a situation, to create a mirage for the Declarer that he held Qxx. Unfortunately, his partner missed the nuances and gave away the story by a bad pitch himself, not realizing the cross-double-cross circumstances of the deal.

One of the most difficult of situations to defend is this sort of informational immaterial squeeze. It is also interesting that perhaps East could realize the mirage in diamonds for partner and pitch count in diamonds on the fourth spade. However, Opener might then have a 50-50 guess as to how to structure the last spade play, to avoid the wrong person making the first count pitch. Obviously, it seems that Opener should avoid playing off the minors too early, as that would let West know that the diamond Jack is really useless.

The spade lead suggests, by restricted choice, that Declarer should play that person for the diamond mirage problem. So, to some degree, it seems that 7♠ may also suffer because Declarer might well win the fourth spade in hand, thereby allowing East to clarify 100% the diamond situation (maybe North could be 5440 or 4441?), whereas the South Declarer, using restricted choice, would tend to cash the fourth spade in hand to exact maximum pressure on West without exchange from East as to diamond count.

[fred]

[Gerben42]

I think this is the hand of the tournament because everyone can learn from it. If you look at the levels Fred showed it is truely a world class hand, but after West discarded a Club, counting can show also advancing players how to make the contract.