[mike777]

Codo, on Mar 26 2007, 02:49 AM, said:

I´ll go with the 1 Spade bidders. Where is the reasoning in passing?
In which case are you better placed then after an opening?

Playing with a pickup partner, if we pass rather than 1s, and bid later they may expect wild shape and less defense.

Too much offense for 4s opening, not enough defensive for one spade opening?

OTOH if your pickup partners expect little or no defense for your opening one bids, then feel free.

[mcphee]

1S looks to me like the option I want , I think I can bid more later.

As for opening 1D, I suggest those who gave this the slightest consideration should reduce their alcohol intake.

[Edmunte1]

I'll open 1♠. If opps overcall and partner passes, i plan to bid as low as possible spades for the second time

[Apollo81]

At the table I was torn between a few things. I could open 4♠ planning to rebid spades later. Since it's favorable this auction might actually convince the opps I am sacrificing. I could also open 1♠ or pass to give everyone room to tell me what's going on this hand. I was playing against saavy opps who might smell a rat so I decided to go slowly. I chose pass over 1♠ since it gives everyone the most room to describe their hands. Blasting 6♠ as my opening bid was never really an option.

I passed and it went (1♣)-2♦-(2♥) back to me. It probably would have been the same (forcing 2♥) but without the 2♦ call from pard if I had opened 1♠. Now I decided I had enough information and bid 6♠. LHO with x Ax Qx AQxxxxxx decided I was making and bid 7♣. Pard had x xxx J10xxxx K10x and RHO had K KQJ10xxx Ax Jx. Lucky for me, 6♠ can't make on a non-♦ lead so I got most of the MPs for +500 against 7♣x.

[hrothgar]

Comment 1:

You have a great Spade Suit. From what I can tell, you can pick up the King of Spades and make 10 Spade tricks something like 62% of the time. Either

Partner has the King of Spades or
Partner has the Ace of Diamonds and a Spade and the hook is on or
Partner doesn't have a Diamond entry and the hook is off

In addition, even if you "only" have 9 Spade tricks, there is still a very good chance that partner will contribute the Ace or the Queen of Diamonds. From what I can tell, your chance of making 10+ tricks is over 85%

Comment 2:

Your chance of making a slam is incredibly dependent on partner's Diamond holding. You either need to be able to play the Diamond suit for 1 loser OR find partner with an entry and a side ace.

The chance that partner has the Ace of Diamonds is 33%
The chance that partner has the King of Spades and a side Ace is 18%
The chance that partner doesn't have the Ace of Diamonds or the (King of Spades + a side Ace) but does have the QJ of Diamonds is 6.3%

In addition, there's still all the weird stuff that can't really be simulated. (Partner has the Ace of Clubs and NO entry to dummy, but the opponents lead a club from the get go)

I didn't bother to tune the dealer script to consider all the cross effects between the ability to pick up the Spade suit and Diamond losers. (this is obviously significant). However, from what I can tell, the odds that we make slam are acceptable. Moreover, on the hands where we don't have slam, we'll still often have an acceptable sacrifice.

Mark me down firmly in the 6♠ camp.

[Fluffy]

did this 10-3 happen on BBO?

I didn't expect to see this distribution ever, but I kibitzed a 10-3 (fit between 2 partners, not a hand) yesterday, 2 in a day is too much a coincidence IMO.


The tabe I kibitzed let the opponents make 6♠X vulnerale after a ruf&discard lead, with 10 card suit you better play the hand so 6♠

[pclayton]

Noble, wouldnt your LHO have tried 7C over a 6S opening?

Pass might work, but I cant see how its better than 1S. 1D is an interesting approach, and i might have tried that when I first started the game. I dont mind masterminding if I was convinced that i could get the necessary information at my next turn. I can tell you partners do not like being taken out of the loop.

For the 1S bidders - how much relevant information will you get here? Its very possible the opponents have a freak as well, and the bidding will be at the 4 level anyway when I act again. To me the best reason for 1S is that I might attract a double when I 'sacrifice' later in the bidding. Sometimes walking the dog works.

[hrothgar]

jdonn, on Mar 26 2007, 09:05 AM, said:

To me opening this 6 is almost an insult to ones self, like saying I have so little confidence in my ability to try and find out what I need to know that I will turn the hand into a giant roulette spin and pray. Not for me.

Did you note the conditions of contest?

You're playing with a random "expert" in an untested partnership. At the table, partner dredged out a 2♦ bid with six Diamonds to the JT which certainly didn't help with that all critical hand evaluation.

I readily admit: I suspect that I'd open 6♠ even in a regular partnership. For what its worth, I have LOTS of toys that can be used to explore slams with a regular partner. However, this isn't the hand to trot them out.

(While I was originally leaning towards a 4♠ opening, looking at a bunch of hands convinced me that 6♠ has too many ways to pay off. I dealt a small small - 100 hands - and manually inspected them. The slam looks to be 50% against best defense.
Thrown in a few hands like the following

---

Which technically should only make 4 but in practice will probably make 6 and the slam starts looking good.

[jdonn]

???? In practice will probably make?!?!?! I hope you are on lead against me sometime!

Trivia question. RHO opens 6♠ and you hold an ace, a sure trump trick, and anything else you want. What do you lead and why?

Trivia question 2: How is it possible, being as double dummy as you want, to hold the above construction to 4?

[cherdano]

jdonn, on Mar 26 2007, 11:18 AM, said:

Trivia question 2: How is it possible, being as double dummy as you want, to hold the above construction to 4?

Easy. RHO leads his spade void out of turn, accepted by partner. Next.

[hrothgar]

jdonn, on Mar 26 2007, 08:18 PM, said:

Trivia question 2: How is it possible, being as double dummy as you want, to hold the above construction to 4?

Sorry, makes five

[pclayton]

jdonn, on Mar 26 2007, 09:18 AM, said:

???? In practice will probably make?!?!?! I hope you are on lead against me sometime!

Trivia question. RHO opens 6♠ and you hold an ace, a sure trump trick, and anything else you want. What do you lead and why?

Trivia question 2: How is it possible, being as double dummy as you want, to hold the above construction to 4?

TQ1. It depends on my side suit length. If I have 3 cards in the offsuits, I'll probably lead my ace. If I'm 5-1 in side suits, I'll lead an off suit.

TQ2.

How about 9 tricks?

1. Club lead ruffed.
2. Diamond to Q losing
3. Club lead ruffed.
4. Diamond to A losing.
5. Club lead ruffed.
6. Diamond, ruffed by the baby trump.
7. Something ruffed in hand.
8. Concede trick to KS.

(or did you mean Richard's layout? - I can't see how, but I get close with the Q♦)
By the way in the original layout, defending 6♠ is pretty tough.

[1eyedjack]

whereagles, on Mar 26 2007, 11:01 AM, said:

5♠ for me. I'm aggressive but 6♠ rates not to make and I don't see why opps should be making 6-something. So 5♠ is the optimal bid for me.

5♠ for me shows 11 playing tricks with 2 trump losers. Similar at the 6 level with just the one. Perhaps in ♣ that is not so sensible.

[whereagles]

1eyedjack, on Mar 26 2007, 06:28 PM, said:

whereagles, on Mar 26 2007, 11:01 AM, said:

5♠ for me. I'm aggressive but 6♠ rates not to make and I don't see why opps should be making 6-something. So 5♠ is the optimal bid for me.

5♠ for me shows 11 playing tricks with 2 trump losers. Similar at the 6 level with just the one. Perhaps in ♣ that is not so sensible.

Are we going to start this again? 5♠ shows whatever you want it to show and besides the pree hand is far more frequent than an 11 tricks hand.

[1eyedjack]

whereagles, on Mar 26 2007, 10:18 PM, said:

Are we going to start this again? 5♠ shows whatever you want it to show and besides the pree hand is far more frequent than an 11 tricks hand.

Missed the previous chat. I am unconvinced by an argument that defining your 5♠+ openers to maximise their frequency is necessarily winning tactics, but if that has already been thrashed out then fine.

And anyway, I quite agree that it shows "whatever you want it to show", which is why I prefixed my post with "for me ...."

[han]

I'd open 1S. (Josh, play on my team next time?)

Trivia question 2 seems tough, a trump lead wouldn't work as declarer cashes 10 spades before exiting with a low diamond. I think I know the answer to question 1 though.