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accept the transfer? (2)

#1 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2007-March-02, 09:23

♠AKJ53
♥---
♦Q10865
♣1097

unfavorable, MPs

pass-(pass)-1♠-(2♥)
2♠-(4♥)-???
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#2 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2007-March-02, 09:24

In general I can never pass when there's a double game swing possible.
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#3 User is offline   jtfanclub 

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Posted 2007-March-02, 10:35

Apollo81, on Mar 2 2007, 10:23 AM, said:

♠AKJ53
♥---
♦Q10865
♣1097

unfavorable, MPs

pass-(pass)-1♠-(2♥)
2♠-(4♥)-???

If I'm feeling cute, I go Stripe Tailed Ape on this one. Otherwise, I pass.

I'm already trying to decide if I'm going to sacrifice over 6♥ or not (wrong vul for it). I'll be very happy with -480.
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#4 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2007-March-02, 10:58

A boring 4♠ bid. Even tho this may be terribly wrong, the odds favour us escaping. LHO will not usually be able to double (unless he holds Q10xx of trump, in which case this will be ugly). It's not that I expect to make, altho weirder things have happened: on a perfect day partner holds Qxxx xxx AJx xx, but I'd rather defend 5♥ than 4. I am not at all worried that they are bidding slam... not because it is impossible but because it is highly, highly unlikely. The 'cute' double rates merely to lose 5 or 6 imps on a good day and 14 on a bad one.
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#5 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2007-March-02, 14:41


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#6 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2007-March-02, 16:12

Strangely on this hand I'd be much more concerned about the tap than on the earlier hand where I had singleton heart. The issue is that if partner has three hearts and only three spades, I can be tapped out pretty easily. I think at unfavorable I'd have passed this one. This is especially clear if we have some way to make a mixed raise in our methods (i.e. either 3♠ directly or some other bid would show 4 spades and a decent hand) since the tap is much more dangerous opposite three spades than four. There's also a possibility that hearts break 4-0 (RHO doesn't have to have five) in which case both contracts may fail, whereas if I had a heart then the break can't be too bad.
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a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
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#7 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2007-March-02, 16:27

good thing LHO is bidding 5H over 4S :P
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#8 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2007-March-03, 06:01

let's hope for that :P

I would bid 4♠ without hessitation
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#9 User is offline   dake50 

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Posted 2007-March-03, 09:10

Too likely a D trick gets lost in defense (or a Club if DK CQ switched). Very likely an urgent tempo lost on chosen return after winning 1st spade. Don't risk opposing game swing, bid 4S. Maybe THEY have an urgent tempo play to prevent losers going on long D.
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#10 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2007-March-03, 12:28

4♠, but not surprised if there is a big number or a lot of IMPs riding on this.

I just can't pass this.
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#11 User is offline   Double ! 

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Posted 2007-March-03, 17:39

pclayton, on Mar 3 2007, 01:28 PM, said:

4♠, but not surprised if there is a big number or a lot of IMPs riding on this.

I just can't pass this.

did I misread? I thought the problem said unfavorable, matchpoints.

dhl
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#12 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2007-March-04, 16:50

y :ph34r:
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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