[whereagles]

LHO seems to have a singleton, so I'll play RHO for a singleton as well.

♣A, heart.

[Fluffy]

If they were playing double dummy, best chances are playing low now.

This problem is similar to when you have to play a game with 2 lines: 1 needs an opponent mistake and the other a 10-15% position, those are worst problems for me because chances of opponents making a mistake are impossible to calculate even after the deal, so you can't learn from deep analysis.


Given said that, I'll play low only against players who I rate good.

[dake50]

Should opponents play talk me out of the C finesse? I think not.

[pclayton]

Inconceivable RHO is shifting away from the King; he doesn't know the location of the J.

Better to hope the lead is stiff and RHO has the ♥A.

[pclayton]

Jlall, on Mar 3 2007, 10:59 AM, said:

pclayton, on Mar 3 2007, 01:31 PM, said:

Inconceivable RHO is shifting away from the King; he doesn't know the location of the J.

Better to hope the lead is stiff and RHO has the ♥A.

Even if there is a 0 % chance of a shift from the king (I agree), isn't it a question of doubleton vs stiff?

Great hand. Wish I would have spent more than 30 seconds on it 1st before I blurt out my thought.

Come to think about it - if RHO has the ♥A, the suggested defense is to wait a round or two before the club shift as the fence builder. So, if you respect RHO, you should duck the club I suppose.

However, with only one club spot lower, the odds of a doubleton a priori are pretty small.

Gack - I suppose some of the nightmare-inducing aspects of this hand are when RHO shifted from xx5. Here you have to fly with the ace to block the suit, which also pays off when the shift is a stiff.....

[helene_t]

My choice would be to step up and play a small trump from the hand. Just in case LHO has Axx of trumps and holds up the ace for fear that his pd has the king stiff or KQ.

(Experts, please don't laugh, I'm not playing in the same kind of events that you are).

[cherdano]

Jlall, on Mar 3 2007, 12:59 PM, said:

Even if there is a 0 % chance of a shift from the king (I agree), isn't it a question of doubleton vs stiff?

My immediate reaction was to play for a doubleton. After doing the math, it seems clear to me that playing for a singleton is better odds.

The number of holdings in clubs are the same. However, we know diamonds split 1=6, and we have to assume RHO has the ♥A (otherwise our decision doesn't matter). So assuming a singleton, the "known" cards divide 5=8 among the defenders (LHO having no ♥A, one diamond, 4 clubs, RHO having ♥A, 6 diamonds and one club) as opposed to 4=9. The first is more than twice as likely (9/4 times as much, to be precise).

[To compute this, you have to compare the number of ways to distribute the remaing 13 card 9=4 or 8=5 among the defenders.]

So if you play RHO for a doubleton, you are assuming he would shift twice as likely to a club doubleton than to a club singleton. That seems far-fetched.

Arend

[cherdano]

Jlall, on Mar 4 2007, 03:26 PM, said:

diamonds were not 6-1 btw

If diamonds are 5-2, that changes the odds from "singleton 9/4 times as likely" to "singleton 8/5 times as likely". All a priori, of course.

[cherdano]

Jlall, on Mar 4 2007, 03:46 PM, said:

cherdano, on Mar 4 2007, 04:41 PM, said:

Jlall, on Mar 4 2007, 03:26 PM, said:

diamonds were not 6-1 btw

If diamonds are 5-2, that changes the odds from "singleton 9/4 times as likely" to "singleton 8/5 times as likely". All a priori, of course.

and Kxx/Kx? Impossible to calculate with math you have to use your judgement. I think my judgement of these possibilities was off.

Sure. I was showing the math mostly because I was surprised how much more likely a singleton than a doubleton is.