[paulg]

Scoring: IMP

West...North..East...South
Pass.....1♦......2♣.......2♠
3♣......Pass...Pass.....3♥
Pass.....3♠.....Pass......4♠
All pass

Lead: ♣8

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The lead is won by the ♣J and East continues with the ♣A. What's the best line?

[Dwingo]

I would discard a ♦ on ♣A and if ♣ is continued, will ruff in dummy discarding a ♥ from hand.

[paulg]

Dwingo, on Feb 20 2007, 12:23 PM, said:

I would discard a ♦ on ♣A and if ♣ is continued, will ruff in dummy discarding a ♥ from hand.

I did see things could get complicated if East continued with a small diamond after winning the first two clubs.

Now you would need diamonds to play for no loser or hearts 3-3 or the heart ace well positioned.

Or you can ruff the ♣A and play for spades 3-3.

Clearly discarding is the best line. In practice spades were 4-2, East held four hearts to the ace but diamonds were 2-2 so the contract makes on most lines.

p

[temp3600]

Let's call :
line (1) : ruff the ♣A, pull trumps
line (2) : throw a diamond on the ♣A, take the diamond return in hand, pull trumps

I'll ignore 5-1 and 6-0 spade breaks, and 4-0 diamond breaks.

line (1) wins if spades are 3-3 (duck a diamond), and needs diamonds 2-2 when spades are 4-2.

36 + 48*0.4 = around 55%


line (2) wins when diamonds are 2-2, or hearts 3-3. If diamonds are 3-1, hearts 4-2 but spades were 3-3, it is possible to set up the diamonds, so the ♥A with West in that case is an extra chance.

40 + [60]*0.36 + [38]*0.36*0.5 = around 68 %


So discarding a diamond on the ♣A is clearly better then ruffing it.

[cherdano]

Line (2) has also squeeze chances if RHO has one diamond and ♥Ax. We win his ♦ continuation with the king, pull trump, and when he play a heart to the queen and ace, he can't return a diamond to break up the squeeze against LHO.

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