Trump promotion looking around the corner

Trump promotion looking around the corner or not?

Poll: What do you play now? (16 member(s) have cast votes)

What do you play now?

Hx (2 votes [12.50%])
Percentage of vote: 12.50%
HA (1 votes [6.25%])
Percentage of vote: 6.25%
Cx (7 votes [43.75%])
Percentage of vote: 43.75%
DJ (6 votes [37.50%])
Percentage of vote: 37.50%

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#1 Free

mmm Duvel

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Posted 2007-January-21, 02:53

Playing teams, the auction went (West starts):
3♠ - 4♣* - 4♠ - 5♥
all pass

This is what you get:

Scoring: IMP

West starts ♠J to his partner's Ace, East returns a ♠ to West's K. Now West thinks a bit and plays ♠2. How do you handle this baby?

For those who wonder: the preempt style is pretty normal.

"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe

#2 hotShot

Axxx Axx Axx Axx

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Posted 2007-January-21, 04:00

The ♥Q is more likely to be part of a 2 or 3 card ♥. And this length is more likely to be with RHO. If it's 3, it will make a trick anyway, but if I use ♥A or K now Qx will (almost) always make a trick.

#3 Echognome

Deipnosophist

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Posted 2007-January-21, 06:24

I don't see the problem here. If East has only 2 spades and Qx(x) of hearts, you're down no matter what. If East has 3 spades, then you can make if hearts are 2-1. The only other line you can take is for east to have a stiff ♥Q. I think that's less likely than Qx(x) so I discard a club from dummy. If East ruffs in with a stiff heart, it's time to congratulate the defense.

"Half the people you know are below average." - Steven Wright

#4 mcphee

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Posted 2007-January-21, 07:45

For reasons stated from others, if RHO has the Q, may they have the good sense to trump with it.

#5 Free

mmm Duvel

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Posted 2007-January-21, 09:30

mcphee, on Jan 21 2007, 02:45 PM, said:

For reasons stated from others, if RHO has the Q, may they have the good sense to trump with it.

So what? If RHO has Qxx it's always down - woo...hoo - but it's imps, you have to find the line with the biggest chance for success, not for failure... If RHO has Qx your chances are pretty small as well. What if he has Q stiff? Then it's necessary to ruff with the Ace now and cash ♥ from the top. If LHO has Qx, then it's a disaster if you ruffed with the Ace (unless you can see through the cards and pin ♥T). If he has Q stiff it's no problem again. So what is the best line if you know you actually CAN win this contract?

"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe

#6 han

Under bidder

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Posted 2007-January-21, 09:44

I also agree with Echo, the chance that RHO has the stiff queen is smaller than the chance that LHO has ♥Q(x) combined with the chance that RHO has at least 3 spades.

Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar

#7 pclayton

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Posted 2007-January-21, 12:49

Hannie, on Jan 21 2007, 07:44 AM, said:

I also agree with Echo, the chance that RHO has the stiff queen is smaller than the chance that LHO has ♥Q(x) combined with the chance that RHO has at least 3 spades.

You can make with either opponent holding the stiff Q if you ruff high, but pitching also works.

I'm telling you something, this LHO is either brilliant or nuts. How can he possibly know that you don't hold something like: xx, Qxxxx, AKxxx, x that puts 5♥ down off the top, unless you get a ruff / sluff.

Therefore, I am convinced that spades are 7-2. I am also convinced that LHO doesn't know the location of the ♣A, and is looking at ♥Q or ♥Qx. I am not falling for this little ploy and will pitch on the 3rd spade. A 3rd spade would legitimately beat the hand whenever RHO has ♥J or ♥Jx

"Phil" on BBO

#8 Halo

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Posted 2007-January-21, 15:06

Small ruff.

Cash AK ruff out diamonds etc.

If I'm off I'm off.

#9 Free

mmm Duvel

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Posted 2007-January-21, 15:23

I like Phil's analyse the most. I was the West player, and was looking at following hand:

If my partner had ♣A he would've lead it before leading his final ♠. Same goes for ♦A. So the only chance of beating this contract is by trump promotion of partner's J OR when opponent makes a mistake by falling in the trap.

Partner had 7 ♣s from the Ace! Declarer ruffed with ♥A and we defeated a cold 5♥. :blink:

"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe

#10 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2007-January-21, 19:38

this should be on the beginner forum.

#11 Free

mmm Duvel

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Posted 2007-January-22, 03:38

Jlall, on Jan 22 2007, 02:38 AM, said:

this should be on the beginner forum.

Lol you really took your time to post something like this? :lol:

That's plain silly, get a life dude! South was a good player who took the wrong line, and I wondered if there are more people who thought the way he did. A beginner doesn't even know what trump promotion is in the first place, so why post it there? Go whine somewhere else...

"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe

#12 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2007-January-22, 09:42

Free, on Jan 22 2007, 04:38 AM, said:

Jlall, on Jan 22 2007, 02:38 AM, said:

this should be on the beginner forum.

Lol you really took your time to post something like this? :lol:

Yes, I took the time to post this because you are an intermediate player who posts beginner hands on the expert forum routinely. There is a reason the forums are seperated, these kinds of hands do not belong here. Telling me to get a life for posting on a forum is amusingly hypocritical.

I'm sure you think south is a good player but that is because you are not very good. This hand was simply a brag on your amazingly basic defense. What is there to think about on this hand? The only relevant holdings are stiff heart Q with RHO versus a stiff small heart with RHO. A stiff small heart is twice as likely. Add that to the fact that your defense clearly suggests you're looking at the HQ and this is a completely trivial hand that might be instructional to beginners and intermediates. No advanced/expert player would find this hand thought provoking, interesting, humorous or instructive, so why post it here? No one is impressed by your defense.

#13 Free

mmm Duvel

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Posted 2007-January-22, 10:03

Well ok, keep whining here... whatever

"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe

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