[Winstonm]

Scoring: IMP

1H-1S-2H-?

Raise or pass and reasons.

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[pbleighton]

2S, at any other vul it would be 3S.

I can't imagine passing with 4 card support.

Peter

[inquiry]

Since you titled this to bid or not to bid, sounds like a larry issue. LOTT says bid, but this is imps and we are vul. Partner will stretch to bid game, and I don't want to encourage him. So here, I will violate LOTT (sorry Larry) and pass. Also, I really, really don't like 4333 distribution, so in cases of close decisions, i go softly, as in this case.

[Free]

2♠, I don't want my partner to think I have a doubleton ♠...

[Winstonm]

I am wondering if this isn't a risk/gain issue, as the working cards are really only a 4-count and the 4-card support diminishes in value with no ruffing value.

If partner has a strong overcall he will surely balance, and if he doesn't have we lost enough letting the opps play 2H verses our risk of going down in 2S undoubled or a higher contract doubled?

It is surely right to compete as often as possible, but doesn't that have to be tempered with misleading partner as to the quality of your raise - in other words, should partner expect either better shape or better cards for a raise?

[pbleighton]

"It is surely right to compete as often as possible, but doesn't that have to be tempered with misleading partner as to the quality of your raise - in other words, should partner expect either better shape or better cards for a raise?"

No.

Peter

[1eyedjack]

Winstonm, on Dec 30 2006, 08:54 PM, said:

should partner expect either better shape or better cards for a raise?

There is a case for it:

http://forums.bridgebase.com/index.php?sho...indpost&p=65088

[ulven]

Pass. Wouldn't dream of bidding. Used to raise. Now I'm wiser.

[Winstonm]

I find it interesting that so far everyone is assuming a 9-card fit - how many of those also are proponents of 4-card overcalls?

[pbleighton]

"I find it interesting that so far everyone is assuming a 9-card fit - how many of those also are proponents of 4-card overcalls?"

1) Since 5 cards is the overwheming standard for overcalls, I assumed that you would have mentioned it if the pair was playing 4 card overcalls. Was I wrong?
2) Dollars to doughnuts anyone who is aggressive enough to play 4 card overcalls at unfavorable is aggressive enough to bid 2S here. I certainly would, and in a partnership where overcalls were 5+, I would raise on any hand with 3 card support.

Peter

[Winstonm]

Quote

If 2H ends the auction I think it's so likely to lead to a terrible result that I can't bring myself to pass.

I have found this to be quite accurate - but alas, it is usually because the opponents have simply done too good of job of bidding their cards and I am in a no-win situation - my RHO has a borderline limit raise and took the low route and if I bid all I accomplish is misleading partner into over-competing and getting crushed at the 3-level or pushing the opponents to a making stop at the 3-level.

I believe that sometimes you just have to take your bad result and move on - I would like partner to compete to the 3-level with the right overcall, something like AKJxxx, xx, Ax, Jxx, but my raise, if it goaded partner to compete again, would only give the opponents the option of doubling or bidding on.

I'm not big on pre-emptive jump raises Vul vs NV, so I'd prefer to have less HCP and better shape to raise, even as little as xxxx, x, Kxxxx, xxx so that if partner does move on my hand won't disappoint.

[Winstonm]

pbleighton, on Dec 30 2006, 06:42 PM, said:

"I find it interesting that so far everyone is assuming a 9-card fit - how many of those also are proponents of 4-card overcalls?"

1) Since 5 cards is the overwheming standard for overcalls, I assumed that you would have mentioned it if the pair was playing 4 card overcalls.  Was I wrong?
2) Dollars to doughnuts anyone who is aggressive enough to play 4 card overcalls at unfavorable is aggressive enough to bid 2S here. I certainly would, and in a partnership where overcalls were 5+, I would raise on any hand with 3 card support.

Peter

No, P, I was just wondering if those who are proponents of frequent 4-card overcalls take that into consideration when judging whether or not to raise. As for the post, it is most likely 5-cards but surely doesn't have to be.

Yes, the more aggressive might well bid 2S but the question concerns whether or not that is good stategy due to gain/loss - bidding gains by creating blocking action and competition but loses by widening the range of the raise, thus making it harder on partner to know what to do next.

[pbleighton]

"Yes, the more aggressive might well bid 2S but the question concerns whether or not that is good stategy due to gain/loss - bidding gains by creating blocking action and competition but loses by widening the range of the raise, thus making it harder on partner to know what to do next."

Well, there's no doubt there is a cost to aggressive advancing. In my experience, however, it is fairly rare for me to have an overcalling hand which wants to invite over a simple raise, particularly where the opener's partner has bid. One reason for this is that if if the overcall would be on the one level, I will double then bid my suit, if I have an OK 17, good 16, or an excellent 15. That doesn't leave many "invitational" hands.

This is particularly true in my partnership where we overcall with 6 counts with poor 4 card suits , but even in my "normal" partnership (almost always 5 cards, usually 8+ hcp, but we always raise with 3, even with a 4333 yarborough) we have a low top for one level overcalls.

Peter

[mike777]

2s LOTT pard expects this.

Ya, this hand stinks but I need to bid down the middle and any other bid is masterminding.....not wrong just not down the middle.
I expect partner to have 5+ spades more than 98%+

[Winstonm]

Jlall, on Dec 30 2006, 06:57 PM, said:

Winstonm, on Dec 30 2006, 06:35 PM, said:

I find it interesting that so far everyone is assuming a 9-card fit - how many of those also are proponents of 4-card overcalls?

I think you're wrong on this one. Think about the type of hands you make 4 card overcalls with. They likely have some heart length, otherwise you would make a t/o X. Given that we know partner is short in hearts, I would say there are EXTREMELY low odds that he has a 4 card overcall.

Sure it's unlikely - but there is: AKQx, x, xxx, Axxxx so it is within the realms of possibilties, and I've seen some espouse much worse than this.

Still, that's not the point of it all - it's whether it is better to have a more constructive minimum raise agreement or not.

[Winstonm]

pbleighton, on Dec 30 2006, 07:39 PM, said:

"Yes, the more aggressive might well bid 2S but the question concerns whether or not that is good stategy due to gain/loss - bidding gains by creating blocking action and competition but loses by widening the range of the raise, thus making it harder on partner to know what to do next."

Well, there's no doubt there is a cost to aggressive advancing. In my experience, however, it is fairly rare for me to have an overcalling hand which wants to invite over a simple raise, particularly where the opener's partner has bid. One reason for this is that if if the overcall would be on the one level, I will double then bid my suit, if I have an OK 17, good 16, or an excellent 15.  That doesn't leave many "invitational" hands.

This is particularly true in my partnership where we overcall with 6 counts with poor 4 card suits    , but even in my "normal" partnership (almost always 5 cards, usually 8+ hcp, but we always raise with 3, even with a 4333 yarborough) we have a low top for one level overcalls.

Peter

The top of of the overcall does have some bearing, but even then you can easily get too high with a 13-14 count and a 6-card suit, no?

[Winstonm]

mike777, on Dec 30 2006, 08:23 PM, said:

2s LOTT pard expects this.

Ya, this hand stinks but I need to bid down the middle and other bid is masterminding.....not wrong just not down the middle.
I expect partner to have 5+ spades more than 98%+

Gee, I would think bidding 2S would be more masterminding - pass doesn't rate to get your side into trouble, which is the point of the post. Would you expect a positive result and an overall gain more often from bidding than from passing with such a poor hand?

Of course, those who overcall on 18+ type hands have more pressure on them to keep the auction alive.

In constructive bidding, we are required to bid opposite an opening 1S bid as partner can have just short of a 2C bid, but when the overcall is somewhat limited we do not have that constraint. Would your views change if RHO had passed or doubled?