[sathyab]

If spades are 3-2 you will eventually have to play a diamond to the King yourself. If trumps are 4-1 either way, you will need an entry back to your hand outside of clubs to play a Diamond toward dummy. So I'll take the first heart in dummy with the K, AofS, a club to my hand and spade finesse.

[inquiry]

I see only three lines....

Line one, cash ♠AK--- if queen falls, then play spade jack, else second heart, a few rounds of clubs to strip them of their clubs, and then throw them in with spade Queen. If you lose no spade, just lead up to the diamond king. The endplay does not mean you will guess right (unless RHO has the spade queen)

Line two, cash one spade, play second heart to hand, hook spade. If that wins, pull trump, and eventually lead up the king of diamonds.

Line three, partial elimination. Play like line two, except cash precisely one club before taking the second round spade hook. If RHO has unlikely 1♣, 2♠ he is endplayed.

Line 3 has too little chance and runs risk of club ruff(s) so I throw that out. Line one and line two are fairly close, but I think I prefer line one over line two because even if the spade Queen is onside you might regain the trick on the endplay that will not be there if you won the hook, and if Queen third is offside, the endply will gain a trick when diamond ACE if with RHO. So I go that way.

[keylime]

I'm catering Jeff to have 4 spades to the QT9x.

High trump, heart into closed hand, lead up. If LHO follows duck it around. I don't think Jeff would hold hopefully 4-3-2-4 with the AD.

If LHO shows out, then I might cater to 4-4-3-2 or 4-4-4-1 in Jeff's hand. Win any return (probably a club), play a high trump, and work on clubs until Jeff pounds in. That might get the game made then.

[cnszsun]

keylime, on Dec 15 2006, 08:34 AM, said:

I'm catering Jeff to have 4 spades to the QT9x.

High trump, heart into closed hand, lead up. If LHO follows duck it around. I don't think Jeff would hold hopefully 4-3-2-4 with the AD.

If LHO shows out, then I might cater to 4-4-3-2 or 4-4-4-1 in Jeff's hand. Win any return (probably a club), play a high trump, and work on clubs until Jeff pounds in. That might get the game made then.

I don't think this will work if East don't ruff any ♣s, at the end you are stuck in dummy and down even if ♦A onside.

[kenrexford]

I'm winning the heart somewhere. I'll try the Ace-King of spades. Why?

This is BAM. I hate 4S at BAM with near-slam values. I'm expecting 3NT at the other table. My spade suit was awful. My opponents had the benefit of a strong club opening and some room, or heart (or heart-diamond) interference that also pushes us toward 3NT. Against this, I'll play spades anti-percentage.

[Halo]

I'm with the cash AK of spades camp. I invest in giving them a theoretical edge when they play in spades, and get a net profit taking account of a NT contract. If my reasoning is sound then they may do the same thing and we tie the hand even when they are in spades.

Added value is that when I lose, I lose with panache.

[ArcLight]

This is BAM, not IMPs so go with the percentages. Dont cater to 4-1 splits.
Opps at the other table can bid and will be in game as well.
If they are in slam making, they beat you. So don't assume teh Spade finesse will work.

Win heart in hand.
Lay down AK trumps
Run Clubs, you have the entry to Dummy in hearts.

They get 2 tricks, the trump Q (maybe) and the Dime Ace.



[I play AK of spades because I think its the best play for the hand, not necessarily the best play of the spade suit in isolation. "8 Ever, 9 Never"]

[inquiry]

Well, I think we should discuss the variablility between the two reasonable lines of play (and any others I have overlooked).

Missing Qxxxx the "odds" favor the finessee and at BAM you generally go with the odds... we can forget 4-1's (well we will try to drop the stiff QUEEN first) as we will have to lose at least one spade then. The spade hook is about 7% (overall) greater chance of picking up the spade suit.

But we shouldn't consider the trump suit in isolation. Because once we realize that an endplay is in the mix if RHO is forced to win the third round of spades with Queen (when he holds Qxx), the odds change, I think, to favor cashing the spade ACE-KING. The finessee wins a trick when Qxx is onside, playing AK will actually win a trick HALF the time when Qxx if offside (when diamond ACE is with the SPADE Queen). The odds are very close as you might guess going playing for Qxx on side or Qxx offside (if not Qx off side). My estimate is it is about 1%, but you also gain if you can get a good guestimate who might hold the diamond ACE even when the spade hook would have worked, because you could throw WEST in for a forced red suit return.

[inquiry]

I am not worried about 3NT or 6♠, nothing I can do about either of those, one way or the other. I want to 1-make this contract, with 2-best chance for overtrick(s).

I choose Ace of spades, then king of spades because I think it is "percentage play" for the hand (but not the percentage play for the suit).

[whereagles]

Hmm.. yeah, AK of spades wins on all 3-2 breaks and has the chance to end play RHO. Seems like a good line to me, though one would have to go through some calculations to check it against the percentage play in spades.

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on Dec 15 2006, 09:56 AM, said:

Wait a second, 3N? Even if the Qxx of spades is onside, you are going to be winning the board if the diamond hook is onside as there is no way they can take it in 3N. 4S is a much better contract, I'm not sure why we'd assume they're in 3N.

If you play the AK of spades to be "anti percentage" please specify. If you take it because you think it's the best line, also specify. THanks.

This is BAM, not IMP's. So, the concept that they cannot take the diamond finesse seems flawed. Sure, they can. If it works, it works at 4♠. They also must cater to the alternative contract of 4♠. Sure, 25% of the time, the diamond finesse fails twice and 3NT is in trouble, but that is a necessary risk to take. 3NT is safe even on that 25% of hands when diamond are 4-4 or block.

Further, how is 4♠ a better contract??? We have a combined 29 HCP's. Matchpoints 101 often suggests 3NT as better than four of a major when we are hovering near but not enough for slam. Especially if pattern is resolved as it would be on this hand -- no ruffing values expected.

Let's assume that the difference between the finesse and the drop is 7%, as suggested. If we go "anti-percentage," by the drop, and assume the opponents go with percentages, then we win about 46.5% and lose 53.5%. If we go standard, we tie.

However, what if the contract is 3NT? If we go percentages, we lose close to 100% of the relevant time. If we go anti-percentage, our odds change back to 46.5%. Thus, the 46.5% line is superior when they bid 3NT.

So, by rough quack math, it seems like the anti-percentage line is superior if the opponents will be in 3NT enough times where the 46.5% increase in that contract scenario amounts to a rough 3.6% increase in our total expectations.

I have no earthly idea what the real math is. In fact, I think I'm way off and missing a ton. I could probably figure it out, but I'd have a few seconds at the table and will stick with that time frame here. However, my gut tells me that I win if 3NT is the contract about 1:10. That seems low.

Sure, you can spy-versus-spy this thing, and suggest that they might have similar thoughts. However, I'm not Jeff, nor Eric, nor any of these guys. They know this. So, they will probably go normal.

[Codo]

Of course 4 Spade is better then 3 NT.
I would win the Heart and cash two high spades.
The line is superior if:
If the Queen was doubelton behind.
If the queen was 3. behind, I will eliminate Hearts and continue Clubs till rho ruffs and has to open the diamonds or give me a ruff and discard. (If he never ruffs, I play a spade myself.)

The lines are equal if the queen is doubelton with lho or singelton and at some layouts, where the queen is fourth somewhere.

It is inferior if the hook was on.

So the chances for playing the spades from the top look much better then the chances for the hook.

[inquiry]

Codo, on Dec 15 2006, 11:32 AM, said:

It is inferior if the hook was on.

This is not necessarily true. You can sitll eliminate hearts, run clubs, and if LHO doesn't ruff in, throw him in with the spade. Should he have the diamond Queen and his partner the diamond ACE, you will get the spade trick back in the form of a diamond or ruff and sluff. Of course, you can play WEST for Diamond Ace or Diamond Queen, so you are in a guess position. If you guess the field hooks, you know which way to guess when LHO exits a diamond.

[Echognome]

Ironically at imps, I want to be in 3NT. It has the virtue of being cold on ANY lie of the cards. But at BAM, put me down for 4♠.

[bid_em_up]

Jlall, on Dec 14 2006, 06:47 PM, said:

RHO is Jeff Meckstroth and you're playing BAM. Oh, and your partner is Hamman. No pressure though.

You reach 4S with these cards:

AKJx
Kx
Kx
ATxxx

xxxx
Ax
Jxx
KQJx

North bid 1C, South bid 1S, North raised to 4S.

The lead is a heart. btw, soloway or rodwell will be declaring this at the other table. What's your line?

Lets assume for a moment that 3N would be played by North, and he is likely to receive a diamond lead.

Now he has 10 easy tricks, does he not? 5♣ 2♥ 1♦ 2♠, for plus x30.

If the diamond A is onside, he can always score plus x30 anyway regardless of which hand declares 3N and the declarer at the other table already has an idea as to whether or not the Ace was onside or off.

The question is, will he take the spade finesse trying for plus x60? Knowing that he has gained an extra trick on the lead (the Ace is offside), I see no reason for him to take the finesse and risk the overtrick he has already gained. If the spade is Qx offside, it will drop for him and he will be +x90, which we are never beating.

Since this is BAM, it looks like the only way to beat the score at the other table is to take the spade finesse and later playing for the diamond Ace onside to make 6 (when the Ace is offside, I will still outscore 3N+1 by making 5, as long as declarer rejects the spade finesse at the other table).

But what do I know?

[inquiry]

bid_em_up, on Dec 15 2006, 11:54 AM, said:

Jlall, on Dec 14 2006, 06:47 PM, said:

RHO is Jeff Meckstroth and you're playing BAM. Oh, and your partner is Hamman. No pressure though.

You reach 4S with these cards:

AKJx
Kx
Kx
ATxxx

xxxx
Ax
Jxx
KQJx

North bid 1C, South bid 1S, North raised to 4S.

The lead is a heart. btw, soloway or rodwell will be declaring this at the other table. What's your line?

Lets assume for a moment that 3N would be played by North, and he is likely to receive a diamond lead.

Now he has 10 easy tricks, does he not? 5♣ 2♥ 1♦ 2♠, for plus x30.

If the diamond A is onside, he can always score plus x30 anyway regardless of which hand declares 3N and the declarer at the other table already has an idea as to whether or not the Ace was onside or off.

The question is, will he take the spade finesse trying for plus x60? Knowing that he has gained an extra trick on the lead (the Ace is offside), I see no reason for him to take the finesse and risk the overtrick he has already gained. If the spade is Qx offside, it will drop for him and he will be +x90, which we are never beating.

Since this is BAM, it looks like the only way to beat the score at the other table is to take the spade finesse and later playing for the diamond Ace onside to make 6 (when the Ace is offside, I will still outscore 3N+1 by making 5, as long as declarer rejects the spade finesse at the other table).

But what do I know?

On a somewhat more likely heart lead, 3NT players will take the spade hook, assuring 10 tricks (normal spade split) and mabye 11 (5C, 2H, 4S). They will never get a chance to play for an 11th if the spade hook is off, because hearts will be cleared and they will win 10 tricks. So 10/11 tricks seem about right. After the spade hook wins, they might decide to play for 12 (it is BAM after all), by leading up to the king of diamonds. Why? Becasue in 4S, you will get to do that.

Thus, I repeat an earlier reframe, I really can't do anything about 3NT (although there is a good chance in NT the spade hook will be taken). I add to that, I think it is pretty good chance they are playing in 4♠ in the other room anyway.