[hrothgar]

I just had a SICK idea for an opening bid.
Sadly, my hand generator is back East so it will take a while to thoroughly test this idea, however, consider the following

3C = Preemptive opening
3 suited hand pattern (4441 or 5440 shape)
Short Diamonds

I'm going to need to do some experimentation to see how often we can find a safe fit at the three level. However, I find this "Super Ekrens" variant intrinsically appealing.

Any thoughts?

[the hog]

I must admit, I like 3C to show 5+/5+ minors, 5-10. (Not the 2N opening that some use to show this).

I think you have been on the eggnog this afternoon, Richard.

[inquiry]

Quote

I must admit, I like 3C to show 5+/5+ minors, 5-10. (Not the 2N opening that some use to show this).

I think you have been on the eggnog this afternoon, Richard.

I knew this has to be the secret behind richard's bidding system.... At night he sits down with a huge glass of fine scotch and after refilling the glass a couple of times, comes up with all these wacky bids. :-)

BTW, I am not up for this 3C bid, hey, sometimes I get a bunch of clubs and a weak hand. :-)
Ben

[pbleighton]

1) Sounds very interesting NV - do you plan to play this vul?
2) How will you handle "natural" 3C bids too weak for your 2C Moscito opener?

Peter

[hrothgar]

I knew this has to be the secret behind richard's bidding system.... At night he sits down with a huge glass of fine scotch and after refilling the glass a couple of times, comes up with all these wacky bids. :-)

I had a VERY bad experience with Scotch back in 1986.

These days, I primarily imbibe

(a) Beer - particularly Belgian golden ales / tripples
( Sake - favorite is Dewazakura daiginjo
© Tequila

I don't think that the booze had anything to do with the idea for the preempt. Rather, I was annoyed with the low frequency of our current 3C opening and wondering what might work better. Off the top ofmy head, the three suiters seemed safer than 2N = 5/5 in the minors. I'm guessing that your expected trump fit is better.

[hrothgar]

I need to do a pretty extensive set of simulations before I admit to being willing to consider this opening. Right now, I merely consider it an "intriguing" possibility.

From my perspective, the "first" step is to contrast this opening with two other options:

The first is our current 3C opening (natural, 6+ cards, 2 of the top three honors). Great bid when it occurs, but it only crops up .4% of the time.

The second bid is preemptive opening with 5+ Clubs and 5+ Diamonds.

I am primarily interested in comparing the opening frequency of the 3 suited hand pattern with that of the 2 suited hand.

Off hand, can anyone tell me the relatively frequency of

Two suited patterns

5521 hands
5330 hands
6511 hands
6520 hands

Three suited patterns

4441 hands
5440 hands

Furthermore, I need to run a simulation and compare the expected length of the best trump fit for the 2 openings.

Once I have these little datapoints, I'll be in a much better position to make some informed judgements regarding if/when I'd be willing to play this opening.

Oh yeah, we use 2NT to show a "standard" 3 level preempt in either minor.

[keylime]

Weak hand with a lot of clubs....I can't remember the last time I had a weak hand with a lot of clubs!

[pbleighton]

Off hand, can anyone tell me the relatively frequency of

Two suited patterns

5521 hands 3.1739%
5330 hands 0.8952%
6511 hands 0.7053%
6520 hands 0.6511%

Three suited patterns

4441 hands 2.9932%
5440 hands 1.2433%

Peter

[hrothgar]

Hi Peter

Thanks for the numbers. Well that answers one "important" question:

It looks as if the 3 suited hand patterns will be significantly more frequent than the 2 suited patterns with both minors.

The 2 suited hands total approximately 5.4255% of all hands
1/6th of all two suited hands = .90425

The 3 suited hands total approximately 4.2365% of all hands
3/4 of all three suited hands = 3.177375

So, the initial comparison with 3C = 5+/5+ in the minors looks favorable. The next step is to compare the expected trump fit for both opening bids.

Of course, the really difficult part will be comparing the playing strength of the two bids.

[luis]

A quick simulation:

Weak hands 3-9 HCP:
5440 or 4441 short diamonds: 0.49%
5530 or 5521 with clubs and diamond: 0.31%

I think the 55 variation is better because it has the power of preempting a major fit in the opponents.
The three suiter is riskier because in a missfit you will ge doubled for a number and the chances of a major suit game slam for the opponents are reduced since you have 4-4 + in the majors.

[MesSer]

what do you use to simulate these hands?