[cherdano]

You hold ♠AQT63 ♥JT652 ♦85 ♣9 at IMPS, all vulnerable, partner dealt. RHO opens 2N, LHO raises to 3N, your lead.

Maybe this example is a bit extreme. Generally, when would you shy away from an aggressive 5-card suit lead into a 2N opener and prefer a more passive lead?

(Yes, I intentionally didn't include any high spade among the options. I am convinced it is inferior and, more importantly, we have discussed the right lead from this combination many times.)

[Walddk]

4th best from my longest and strongest, so low spade it will be. I don't mind leading from strength into the strong hand when partner is marked with some values.

I may choose a different approach if I have got all the outstanding high cards myself.

Roland

[Vilgan]

all you really need pard to have is the ♠K to have a good shot at setting the contract.. so a low spade it is. If pard was marked with 0-1 points, I might lead the heart.

Eric

[gwnn]

IMP is agressive defence, MP is passive. So low spade. What's the catch?

[Gpm_bg]

hm, same like all before, low spade. if the partner have something like control as A or mostly K with 5-3-3-2 distrubution of the spades and if we expecting KJx in the opener or at least Kxx, the lead will be normally. if he don't or the declarer have Jx and dummy Kxx, there is hopeless for the defenders to broke this contract at least -1.

[hrothgar]

I'm going to lead the Jack of Hearts.

I've seen too many hands where a Spade lead gives declarer his 9th trick.

[joker_gib]

I'm going to lead a low ♠.

I've seen too many hands where my partner had a spade honour and that was enough to set the contract.

Alain

[pclayton]

I know the hand, but I would lead the ♠ sight unseen. All it needs is the ♠K in pard's hand, the ♠Jxx (and an entry), or ♠xx, and ♠'s 3-3.

A ♥ needs to catch pard with length, or have a layout where pard has two side entries that need to be knocked out, with ♠xx.

[Free]

♥ seems to be best on not giving declarer his 9th trick. Also I have probably 2 entries left to get to my established ♥ tricks. I don't see the point in leading ♥J, small ♥ is much better.

[hatchett]

I agree completely with Jlall comments.

[neilkaz]

hatchett, on Nov 30 2006, 11:15 AM, said:

I agree completely with Jlall comments.

Me too, and it is a fine analysis.

[pclayton]

I still like a spade, but what do some of my fellow spade leaders think about this situation at MPs?

[mikeh]

pclayton, on Nov 30 2006, 01:24 PM, said:

I still like a spade, but what do some of my fellow spade leaders think about this situation at MPs?

Last time I looked, you get more matchpoints for beating 3N than you do from letting it make... and this auction suggests that they will make if left to their own devices: it is hardly likely (altho not impossible) that they need to play on ♠s to generate 9 tricks.

Now, if we knew for sure that the ♠ lead was the only lead that would ever give them an otherwise unwinnable trick, we could justify being passive at mps. But the truth is that there is no purely passive lead here.

A ♥ could find Q9x in dummy opposite AK8x. A minor could pickle partner's Jxxx and so on.

I have found that over-thinking opening leads usually costs big time. This hand looks like ♠s and ♠s it is at any scoring.

Finally, in terms of matchpoints, even if the lead blows a trick immediately, it may come back in the play since declarer may be afraid of losing the lead: on a different lead, he may not gain the immediate winner but will have time to develop one or two more winners elsewhere... and he may in fact take hooks into your hand to protect his hypothetical ♠K.... hooks we know are winning.

[cherdano]

Ok, as I expected, the vote is rather clear. (I lost 12 IMPS on this at the table when I lead a heart and Justin lead a spade, but was convinced on reflection that spade is superior.)

So what if we change the spade suit to ♠KQ98x? Then the heart suit to ♥JT87x?
Or ♥JT97x? At which point (if any) would your choice swing to the safer heart lead?