Frances, I've had some fun with this one
If I'm playing in the Fast Pairs, the best single dummy play is to hook the
♦Q. All this needs is for LHO to hold 3 or 4 small diamonds.
But if I'm playing this for my life (or something more important):
The missing club cards are K, Q, 8, 7, 4, 3, 2. The lead could be from A. 5x (3 cases), B. 75x (3 cases), C. 75xx (3 cases), D. H875 (2 cases). Curious. When RHO plays the 8 I can eliminate "D". Ben will look up the relative chances of west having 2, 3 or 4 clubs based on spades being 6-1, I'm sure
So I KNOW RHO has KQ of clubs, but I don't know the count. Would RHO chance 2
♠ with 1-2 in the majors, or does this imply 1-3 or 1-4?
♣KQxx on the right does work; Win A
♣,
♣covered,
♦A,
♣covered, K
♦, ruff
♦, cash club. The curious thing about this line is that we assume LHO has 6=1=2=4. When we play the 3rd
♦, LHO can pitch a 4th
♣, and can ruff the 4th
♣, but is then endplayed and plays A
♠/
♠ruff. So thats OK.
If LHO is 6=?=?=3, LHO can ruff the 4th club, and will have a heart exit with 6=2=2=3, although I'll know this already since I'll see the spade pitch on the 3rd
♦, and know I'm going down
If LHO were to follow to the 3rd
♦, I could actually face my cards at that point, since I know LHO would be either 6=0=3=4, 6=1=3=3 or 6=0=4=3.
If LHO has only 2 clubs, I definitely need the
♦ hook, since I can't take the
♣ pitch timely.
The junction point of this hand is when I lead to the
♦A. If I think I need the
♦ finesse I need to take it now. If I want to work on clubs, I have to continue with a club ruff.
Plays like trying to combine
♦Qxx in either hand and the clubs onside gets messy. Besides, I need to help with the cooking for Thanksgiving (besides the director is hovering over the table).
So I'll work on clubs.
If anyone wants to continue this stream of consciousness, go for it. I think we have enough clues to come up with enough finite possibilities and can analyze %'s.
2♦ x 2♠ 3♥
P 4♥ all pass