[hrothgar]

I'll bid 4♠

I'm sure that this is the wrong bid. (There has to be some reason that you're posting the hand).

Let me guess.

Partner tabled

xx
Axx
AJTx
xxxx

or some such

[awm]

As one of Justin's opponents on this hand, I have to say that what actually occurred in the bidding was extremely interesting, but doesn't say much about the right course of action with these cards.

My preference is to double with these hands -- I have neither obtained nor seen my opponents obtain many good results by preempting on strong hands. In addition to the possibility of missing a slam (infrequent), I find that there are often issues when the opponents bid on over the preempt. It's hard to sit still and pass with 18-19 high when opponents bid over your 4♠, but yet the opponents often have a "reason" for bidding and preempter's hand has such high ODR that doubling fairly often lets the opponents play a contract doubled making. The slower route that shows more values often lets opponents get their hands off their chests at a lower level, and then intimidates them from competing further.

[hrothgar]

Jlall, on Nov 10 2006, 09:06 PM, said:

Everyone is always so cynical. I rarely actually make new threads (today excluded lol) and when I do I assure you it's because I thought it was a tough decision and I still have no idea what is right so I seek the opinion of others. It may be an automatic 4S to you (or others) and I am seeing things in this hand that aren't there, but my intentions are pure Dummy is irrelevant to me.

Fair enough...

Here's my thought process.

Baring something really ugly, I see 8 tricks on offense (7 Spades and a Diamond). I only see three tricks on defense (two spades and a Diamond). There's also the King of Clubs, but its difficult to tell what thats worth.

There's a couple reasonable ways to handle this hand.

1. An immediate 4♠ which puts the most pressure on the opponents
2. A simple 1♠ overcall, which maximizes the chance that you'll avoid 4♠ when this is the wrong contract

Personally, I tend to blast in these situations... So the choice seems pretty clear to me. Some folks would differ, especially when holding the master suit.

Double never occured to me with only one bullet

[mikegill]

I think the choices here are between X and 4S. Bidding 1S seems likely to lead to evaluation problems for partner. You're not running a big risk of 1S passing out, but if you overcall 1S then bid 3S at your next call in competition, partner is never going to play you for a hand worth between 8.5 and 9 tricks, since you didn't double.

If the opening bid were a standard 1C, I think there would be a much stronger argument for bidding 4S, since the opponents haven't exchanged as much information, and they might not be able to find a sacrifice (or a making 5C) they would have found if you double. Here, though, they know much more and probably you're better off trying to let partner decide whether you're making 3S or 4S. Your hand is strong enough that it seems likely they're not making any contract above 4S, so there's no need to blast 4S right now. If the bidding is above 4S when it gets back to me, I'll wish I had bid 4S, but put me down for a double.

[mikeh]

I double. Bidding 4♠ is too much of a shot in the dark: this may be our hand for a ♠ partscore, and double hardly prevents us from making an more informed 4♠ bid later if I choose.

There is no reason to expect that 4♠ will stampede the opps into a rash decision, so fantasizing that the opps will take a phantom in 5♥ seems weird, while, even if it happens, you may be encouraging partner to take a phantom himself by bidding 5♠.

It rarely pays to randomize the result when you hold the strongest hand and the highest suit, and preempting (a very, very wide-range action) is a randomizer on this hand.

[Apollo81]

4♠ for me. I have no worries doubling if they bid 5♥. If it gets rewound and makes maybe I will learn something.

I believe the pressure from 4♠ outweighs the risk of missing a slam or getting too high.

[neilkaz]

Tough choice for me between 4♠ and double, but with 8.5 tricks and a hand that some systems open 2♣ as well as the master suit I will double first since I am slightly afraid of missing a slam and also concerned that PD may do the wrong thing over 5♥ if I bid 4♠.

The one bid I think is far wrong is to simply overcall 1♠ as this hand is WAY too good for that.

[Codo]

4 Spade is nice, X is nicer for me, but no strong feelings about it.

[Free]

I'm also a 4♠ bidder.

[pbleighton]

I double, but 4S is acceptable, though you will miss slams occasionally.

1S is a big underbid.

Peter

[pclayton]

I have the boss suit, so I need a reason to bash. My first though was to try to steer the hand toward 3N, but this looks like a longshot. If pard has a bullet, I probably want to be in 4♠, and if pard has a slow double heart stop the opps will surely attack my weaker minor instead of setting up a heart trick.

Could 4♠ help shut out a sac? Maybe. But there's an outside chance we have a slam too. I'll start with a double followed by 3♠. Pard should raise with an ace.

[hotShot]

hrothgar, on Nov 10 2006, 08:15 PM, said:

Baring something really ugly, I see 8 tricks on offense (7 Spades and a Diamond). I only see three tricks on defense (two spades and a Diamond). There's also the King of Clubs, but its difficult to tell what thats worth.

Are you sure a 2nd ♠ defense trick is on? With six cards out usually one of the other 3 is single or even void. Often it will be an opponent.
So I'll got for 4♠.

[mikeh]

It seems like everyone is an optimist.

If I picked up this hand in 1st seat, I'd be thinking in terms of being odds on for game and maybe having some slam hopes, altho partner needs a decent hand for that to happen.

But I am not in 1st seat, and the auction has told me something. Of course, RHO may be light and of course we may be on for game anyway.... heck, slam is not impossible.

BUT neither is the possibility that RHO as an opening hand: xx AKxxx Axx QJx and the defence sees 2♥ cash and the Q♣ through your K. Now is that an unlikely layout? Is there anything at all about this auction that suggests where the missing high card are?

Hint: the correct answer is YES.. and the location is not 'in partner's hand'.

So choose a course of action that will allow you to discover if partner holds anything and then decide how high to bid.

If you double and partner makes a free bid, then by all means move to game. But in the meantime, why either overbid or randomize the results?

[whereagles]

A practical 4♠ seems good to me. Really, in the past I've tried other sort of bids with hands like these, but they could never produce good results as often as the direct 4♠. Taking the shot is even less of a worry when pard is a passed hand, as here.

There's actually an alternative to 4♠: 3♥, asking for a stop. Might try that as well.

[hrothgar]

mikeh, on Nov 11 2006, 09:07 PM, said:

But in the meantime, why either overbid or randomize the results?

You act as if randomizing is always bad thing...

Bridge isn't a deterministic game. If you look at individuals bids, you have to consider both the mean and the variance. I'm willing to tolerate a fair amount of variance for a good expected value. Anyone who's playing a strong club system has accepted the same philosophy (even if they don't conciously recognize it)

An immediate 4♠ bid puts the most pressure on the opponents.

Yes, I could be too high, yes I could be too low... but they're going to have a hell of a lot of trouble figuring out. Equally significant, on some later occasion when I bid 4♠ on a purely preemptive piece of garbage, they're going to have a lot more trouble placing partner's hand.

[Winstonm]

mikeh, on Nov 11 2006, 01:07 PM, said:

It seems like everyone is an optimist.

If I picked up this hand in 1st seat, I'd be thinking in terms of being odds on for game and maybe having some slam hopes, altho partner needs a decent hand for that to happen.

But I am not in 1st seat, and the auction has told me something. Of course, RHO may be light and of course we may be on for game anyway.... heck, slam is not impossible.

BUT neither is the possibility that RHO as an opening hand: xx AKxxx Axx QJx and the defence sees 2♥ cash and the Q♣ through your K. Now is that an unlikely layout? Is there anything at all about this auction that suggests where the missing high card are?

Hint: the correct answer is YES.. and the location is not 'in partner's hand'.

So choose a course of action that will allow you to discover if partner holds anything and then decide how high to bid.

If you double and partner makes a free bid, then by all means move to game. But in the meantime, why either overbid or randomize the results?

There is also the propect of playing this hand in 1H doubled and the doubling hand is going to be a disappointment on defense; a 1S overcall risks missing game.

I think the decisions are closer than they appear and double is not all that clear-cut and 4S not all that randomizing; if the card are as you suggest with the club A on the left there may be no way of stopping 4H from making.

I doubt in this auction LHO can ever have enough to double so 4S becomes a matter of tactics - do I want to allow the opps to exchange information while I gain information or do I want to remove all room for exploration? With a hand this offensive in nature I am going with a tactical 4S and leave the scientific approach to others - no matter what I can't visualize this causing a disaster whereas I can see how a slower course could come back to haunt me.

[pclayton]

hrothgar, on Nov 11 2006, 11:45 AM, said:

mikeh, on Nov 11 2006, 09:07 PM, said:

But in the meantime, why either overbid or randomize the results?

You act as if randomizing is always bad thing...

Bridge isn't a deterministic game. If you look at individuals bids, you have to consider both the mean and the variance. I'm willing to tolerate a fair amount of variance for a good expected value. Anyone who's playing a strong club system has accepted the same philosophy (even if they don't conciously recognize it)

An immediate 4♠ bid puts the most pressure on the opponents.

Yes, I could be too high, yes I could be too low... but they're going to have a hell of a lot of trouble figuring out. Equally significant, on some later occasion when I bid 4♠ on a purely preemptive piece of garbage, they're going to have a lot more trouble placing partner's hand.

There's a time for precision, and there's a time for pressure bidding and randomizing.

This isn't the time for a bash. Yeah, I understand the whole variance business, but keep it to whether or not you want to raise or call with KK utg. Specific bridge decisions happen a lot less frequent than poker decisions, and you need to optimize whenever its appropriate. You can't make generalizations based on variance.

There are some bridge decisions that I do like to vary. For instance, maybe its right to open 1N with: xx, Kx, xx, AKJxxxx 3rd chair green 30% of the time, because that seat and vulnerability rewards variance.

With all the minor suit honors, there's no reason to think that if we bid 4♠ that it will proceed pass - pass - pass. Maybe we'll make and maybe we won't.

We'll get to 4♠ as well if we start with a double, except we will know if we make when we bid it.

[hrothgar]

pclayton, on Nov 11 2006, 11:47 PM, said:

There's a time for precision, and there's a time for pressure bidding and randomizing.

This isn't the time for a bash. Yeah, I understand the whole variance business, but keep it to whether or not you want to raise or call with KK utg. Specific bridge decisions happen a lot less frequent than poker decisions, and you need to optimize whenever its appropriate. You can't make generalizations based on variance.

OK... Here's some specific observations:

Partner is a passed hand and RHO opened. The odds that I'm missing slam and underbididng are remote.

RHO is playing a wide ranging 1♥ opening. While he's had the opportunity to suggest 5+ hearts to partner, LHO has very little information about where the values are.

This is a great time to shut down their ability to exchange any information. Are you really going to be happy if it starts with a double and they get to fit jump in clubs or some such? They're going to be much better positioned to figure out whats what.