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cherdano, on Nov 9 2006, 08:49 PM, said:
Josh, you are acting as if someone attacked you. Certainly no need to attack Phil's pass, which he knows wasn't right.
Having said that, I think some of your arguments are just wrong:
1. I don't see how an undiscussed 2♥ is close to game forcing. In BWS, it forces all the way up 3♦. Who wouldn't bid 2♥ with x KQxxxx Kxx xxx? Ok, maybe you wouldn't, but I am sure it would get a significant number of votes.
2. I think you are waaaaaay overestimating the likelyhood that opponents have a 10-card fit (or even a 9-card fit). Good opponents will very often just bid 4♠ when they know they would bid it over 4♥. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 4♠ bidder with 3 nice trumps, a heart singleton, and some more good stuff.
3. Consequently, I think you are way overestimating the likelyhood that a forcing pass will get us overboard.
I agree with you that if pass is NF, then double is mostly card-showing.
Having said that, I think some of your arguments are just wrong:
1. I don't see how an undiscussed 2♥ is close to game forcing. In BWS, it forces all the way up 3♦. Who wouldn't bid 2♥ with x KQxxxx Kxx xxx? Ok, maybe you wouldn't, but I am sure it would get a significant number of votes.
2. I think you are waaaaaay overestimating the likelyhood that opponents have a 10-card fit (or even a 9-card fit). Good opponents will very often just bid 4♠ when they know they would bid it over 4♥. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 4♠ bidder with 3 nice trumps, a heart singleton, and some more good stuff.
3. Consequently, I think you are way overestimating the likelyhood that a forcing pass will get us overboard.
I agree with you that if pass is NF, then double is mostly card-showing.
Who wouldn't bid 2H on x KQxxxx Kxx xxx? I not only wouldn't (not unless we played al roth strength 1 level bids), I think its really losing bridge (we can't out bid them when they have spades and we have hearts). In BWS, the bid is the equivalent to a standard american 2H bid over 1S. Thats 10+ points, 5+ cards. I can't remember if its forcing to 3D or just 2N, but that doesn't change the strength requirement much. There is a perfectly good sequence to handle 6 hearts and 8 points, you make a negative x and then rebid 3H (or a higher number of hearts if partner shows cards or hearts). As to why to play pass forcing? If you hold a 1633 11-12 count (or any other hand where is borderline if you should bid to the 5 level) 100 times on this auction, you will get a good result close to 95 times if pass is forcing and probably only 60 times if pass isn't forcing including some double game swings. There is just too much guessing on all the normal hands. The downside is ONLY in the situation where 4S undoubled making is your best possible result, and like I said thats very rare if 2H is sound. If you are seriously going to want to pass 4S out 20% of the time or so, then probably playing pass as non-forcing is best, but if its much less than that its totally ineffiecent to have to overload the x to show both hands with wasted values and pure offensive hands with no fit.
Anyway, those were my 2 bits. Phil's hand is typical of the tough decisions you face if pass isn't forcing. If pass is forcing and I x he has a clear 5C bid. If pass isn't forcing and I x its unclear if he should bid 5C or 6C. (Admittely, its a happy choice).
As to colors, by far the worst time to play pass as forcing is when we are red and they are white. The poison position is when they are making 4s and we are down 2 in the 5 level. thats a lot more frqequent than them making and our side is down 3 (the bad situation for playing pass as forcing at equal vul).