[Apollo81]

KJ
Kx
A1098xx
9xx

V/V, IMPs

1♦-(2♠)-3♥-(p)-?

[inquiry]

3NT for me... After a vul 2♠ overcall, my ♠KJ will be of no value in hearts with a ♥ lead. If partner has good ♥ maybe we can score 6♥, 1♠, and tow in a minor. If his hearts are not solid, maybe ♦ will run on a finessee if needed.

The only thing is 3NT can go down a lot on ♣ to Ace and ♠ through you, 4♥ will never be down a ton. That might should factor into the equation as well...

[mikeh]

Hamman's Rule: 3N.

Seriously, Hamman's Rule is not a mantra (at least, not for me) but my hand will be disappointing in 4♥.. it is possible to construct hands on which 4♥ makes and 3N fails, but you have to work at it.

Ben's comment about a ♣ to RHO's Ace and a ♠ through is an example where both games rate to fail: partner is not likely to hold a stiff ♠, so that lie of the cards has us off the 1st 3 tricks in 4♥ with us still looking for 10 winners, with no late entry to dummy if he needs to ruff ♦s to make them run... and maybe partner has 10xx or 9xx with rho holding 10x etc.

Also, if partner holds an unlikely ♠ control, 4♥ may cause him to become overly optimistic and bid again. 3N has the advantage (usually) of slowing him down.

[awm]

I'd guess that 3NT and 4♥ are roughly equally likely to be right. I'd choose 3NT because:

(1) This may be a hand where right-siding matters.
(2) The lack of spade raise may imply that partner has some length there, a disaster at 4♥.
(3) If I bid 3NT, partner can still correct to 4♥ on some of the hands where it's right, or even suggest diamonds with something of a fit there. If I bid 4♥ we're probably playing in hearts no matter what partner has.
(4) Partner's more likely to hunt for slam if I bid 4♥, which is unlikely to be right opposite my effective 8-count or so with only doubleton support.

[FrancesHinden]

I would bid 4H, but I think it's very close indeed.
No-one has yet mentioned to upsides to 4H:
- RHO has the SQ (3NT still probably fatal if we can't run 9 tricks)
- partner has SQx (same applies)
- partner has a singleton spade (if RHO has a pile of rubbish with 4 low spades he may well not raise)
- partner has a singleton club (xxx AQxxxx KQx x opposite, though they might lead a spade against 3NT)

I'm not mentioning the downsides to 4H because everyone else already has - I know they are there!

[pclayton]

The option I would choose is "leave".

Both 3N and 4♥ look pretty ugly. I'd guess 3N makes more of the time, but 4♥ when its wrong has a lower downside. Depends on my mood I guess.

[whereagles]

3NT. Why can't pard have KJx or QJx of diamonds?

[Apollo81]

I am sort of against giving actual deals on principle, but for those curious:

Partner has ♠Axx ♥A1098xx ♦Qxx ♣Q

Both (expert) tables bid 3NT and received a club lead, down 2.