[Walddk]

Scoring: IMP

---

1♥ - 1♠
3♥ - 4♥
pass

Lead: ♣5 (3rd and 5th).

Without much hope you try the 9 from dummy to East's 10 and your ace. You cash 3 top hearts (spade or diamond from dummy), and East discards a club on the 3rd round.

What is the best line from here?

Roland

[mikeh]

I'd immediately (after pulling trump) play a ♠ to the 7 (the 10 if LHO plays the 8.... I'd still be thinking if he played an honour)

This works if ♠ behave and:

1) RHO has the ♦AK, or
2) RHO has the ♦A and is afraid to underlead it, or
3) RHO has the ♦K and is afraid to underlead it, or
4) RHO underleads his ♦ honour and LHO thinks it's a good time to play another ♦, or
5) RHO underleads his ♦ honour and I can successfully guess the ♣ suit on a ♣ switch by LHO


The alternative that occured to me was to lead a ♦ after pulling trump, hoping to sneak this by West or to find RHO with the AK (I'm covering LHO's card if it is neither the A nor K), or to guess the ♣ if/when LHO continues.

I think plan A works as well technically and maximizes the odds of misdefence: if I play a ♦, it's really obvious that I don't have another one.

BTW, the ♣ suit offers intriguing possibilities and I'd both like to know what spot RHO pitched and what spot LHO led if he gets to lead through the Qx next time.

One thing we know, almost for sure, is that RHO did not start with K10x. He either has K10xx (now Kx) or J10xx (now Jx) or an irrelevant holding: one on which we either cannot go right or cannot go wrong.

We may be into mind-games later if LHO leads the 8. Many would succumb to pressure with the J8x and lead the J..to guard against you holding the 7 (as you do). However, an expert defender knows that his partner knows that he holds the J so he would lead the 8, which is the card he'd lead from K8x. If the 8 were led, restricted choice (in an odd way) suggests playing him for K8x on the basis that at least some of the time he'd play the J from J8x even if he is an expert and he'd almost always play the J from J8 if he were anything less. Yet he'd have to play the 8 from K8 in order to have any chance.

Ok, what if LHO pops an honour on the 1st ♠? If we duck, we are assuming both that ♠ behave (so not a singleton honour) and that we can guess the ♣ if he continues ♣. He may, of course, cash the ♣K and try to get 2 ♦ winners. If we win, we are hoping that he has QJ tight (we run a bunch if tricks now) or stiff honour: we hook on the way back and lose only 3 minor suit cards.

This is not a restricted choice situation: LHO will often split with QJx. I am going to quit this discussion now due to time constraints.... let me know if I have to deal with it on my suggested line, and I will post my best guess and what passes for reasoning

[Winstonm]

Low diamond toward Q.

If the club is offside and LHO raises with A or K of diamonds to continue clubs, the count is now rectified and the diamond threat transferred for a diamond/spade squeeze against East. If West ducks the diamond, I can put East on lead and all he can do is return a diamond. I can ruff this and lead a low spade, putting West under pressure to rise from Qx, Jx, but this creates a finesse position with the K9 in hand. If someone comes up with inspired defense, that is LHO winning the diamond, continue clubs, then after two clubs switching to a spade honor, I'll play for split honors and finesse the other way.

Best I can come up with on short notice.

[mikeh]

Winstonm, on Oct 10 2006, 06:22 PM, said:

Low diamond toward Q.

If the club is offside and LHO raises with A or K of diamonds to continue clubs, the count is now rectified and the diamond threat transferred for a diamond/spade squeeze against East. If West ducks the diamond, I can put East on lead and all he can do is return a diamond. I can ruff this and lead a low spade, putting West under pressure to rise from Qx, Jx, but this creates a finesse position with the K9 in hand. If someone comes up with inspired defense, that is LHO winning the diamond, continue clubs, then after two clubs switching to a spade honor, I'll play for split honors and finesse the other way.

Best I can come up with on short notice.

Your squeeze line requires that you not pitch a ♦ from dummy on your third trump: I know that you know this, but I thought I'd point out that Roland stated that we threw either a ♠ or a ♦.... maybe trying a little misdirection?

[Winstonm]

mikeh, on Oct 10 2006, 06:27 PM, said:

Winstonm, on Oct 10 2006, 06:22 PM, said:

Low diamond toward Q.

If the club is offside and LHO raises with A or K of diamonds to continue clubs, the count is now rectified and the diamond threat transferred for a diamond/spade squeeze against East.  If West ducks the diamond, I can put East on lead and all he can do is return a diamond.  I can ruff this and lead a low spade, putting West under pressure to rise from Qx, Jx, but this creates a finesse position with the K9 in hand.  If someone comes up with inspired defense, that is LHO winning the diamond, continue clubs, then after two clubs switching to a spade honor, I'll play for split honors and finesse the other way.

Best I can come up with on short notice.

Your squeeze line requires that you not pitch a ♦ from dummy on your third trump: I know that you know this, but I thought I'd point out that Roland stated that we threw either a ♠ or a ♦.... maybe trying a little misdirection?

I didn't even notice that....I was just looking at the whole hand to see how I would play it at the table....down 1 as usual, I'm sure.

[kgr]

I would start with ♣6.
Playing LHO for ♣T85x or ♣J85x

[Codo]

I had discard a spade and led a diamond following Winstons Line for 9 tricks :-)

[pclayton]

kgr, on Oct 10 2006, 04:02 PM, said:

I would start with ♣6.
Playing LHO for ♣T85x or ♣J85x

Totally agree. The 9 is the last card I would play at T1. I can see rationale for the 6 or the Q, but never the 9.

[mikeh]

pclayton, on Oct 11 2006, 10:13 AM, said:

kgr, on Oct 10 2006, 04:02 PM, said:

I would start with ♣6.
Playing LHO for ♣T85x or ♣J85x

Totally agree. The 9 is the last card I would play at T1. I can see rationale for the 6 or the Q, but never the 9.

I agree with this, but the problem was posed in the context of having made a poor play at trick 1. Unfortunately, the problem did not come with an undo button

[Walddk]

pclayton, on Oct 11 2006, 05:13 PM, said:

kgr, on Oct 10 2006, 04:02 PM, said:

I would start with ♣6.
Playing LHO for ♣T85x or ♣J85x

Totally agree. The 9 is the last card I would play at T1. I can see rationale for the 6 or the Q, but never the 9.

I don't agree. Why can't the lead be from J1053 or J1052? Which card from dummy is the right card then? Oh, they would lead the jack from that holding, you may argue. Some would, most experts won't.

By the way, did any of you consider that the 5 might be from shortage? 53 or 52? Isn't that a possibility now that you know that RHO tossed a club?

And finally, yes, I tried to deceive you when I said that declarer pitches a spade or a diamond on the 3rd round of trumps. He will obviously always pitch a spade because he doesn't need the 5th card.

Roland

[pclayton]

(Ignore this.....)

After the blunder at T1, (OK; maybe blunder is a strong word ) we have 8 tricks so far. By the way, I don't understand Mike's comments; it appears he is playing 4♠, not 4♥, since ducking a spade will lead to losing a trick in every suit.

I will need the K♣ onside (why can't it be?) and a little luck. I'll track a ♦ at T4. The best defense is K and another ♣ (can I tell if LHO has 3 or 4 clubs?). Ruff a ♦, K♠, A♠, ruff a ♦. I'm now at equal trump as LHO. Exit a spade and I have a trump endplay.

I think this is a slightly better shot than trying for a miracle in spades; stiff honor in LHO.

[Walddk]

pclayton, on Oct 11 2006, 05:55 PM, said:

After the blunder at T1, (OK; maybe blunder is a strong word ) we have 8 tricks so far. By the way, I don't understand Mike's comments; it appears he is playing 4♠, not 4♥, since ducking a spade will lead to losing a trick in every suit.

I will need the K♣ onside (why can't it be?) and a little luck. I'll track a ♦ at T4. The best defense is K and another ♣ (can I tell if LHO has 3 or 4 clubs?). Ruff a ♦, K♠, A♠, ruff a ♦. I'm now at equal trump as LHO. Exit a spade and I have a trump endplay.

I think this is a slightly better shot than trying for a miracle in spades; stiff honor in LHO.

I think you should read the initial post again, Phil. You don't have a trump loser. You have 8 between you and opps followed to the first 2 rounds.

And I still don't buy your comment regarding the 9 at trick 1. Would it have been a good idea for West to have led the J from J1053 or J1052?

Roland

[pclayton]

Walddk, on Oct 11 2006, 08:01 AM, said:

pclayton, on Oct 11 2006, 05:55 PM, said:

After the blunder at T1, (OK; maybe blunder is a strong word  ) we have 8 tricks so far. By the way, I don't understand Mike's comments; it appears he is playing 4♠, not 4♥, since ducking a spade will lead to losing a trick in every suit.

I will need the K♣ onside (why can't it be?) and a little luck. I'll track a ♦ at T4. The best defense is K and another ♣ (can I tell if LHO has 3 or 4 clubs?). Ruff a ♦, K♠, A♠, ruff a ♦. I'm now at equal trump as LHO. Exit a spade and I have a trump endplay.

I think this is a slightly better shot than trying for a miracle in spades; stiff honor in LHO.

I think you should read the initial post again, Phil. You don't have a trump loser. You have 8 between you and opps followed to the first 2 rounds.

And I still don't buy your comment regarding the 9 at trick 1. Would it have been a good idea for West to have led the J from J1053 or J1052?

Roland

Oh ok, never mind LOL.