[1eyedjack]

Scoring: IMP

E...S...W...N
1♥..P...2♦..P
2N..P...3♠..P
3N..P...4N..P
6♥..P...6N..P
P...P

Lead ♣3

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Drawing a veil over the bidding, which is essentially natural (2N = 15+ and would not normally have a 6th Heart), this hand cropped up in a sequence of 13 consecutive hands on which we scored positive IMPs on each hand with this exception, when most of it was thrown away by going down in a slam that most of the room was bidding and making. I was West, and probably should have passed 6♥. I read the 6th Heart accurately but was worried that there may be 2 Heart losers in 6♥ on a bad break when there were 12 tricks elsewhere in NT. Probably fallacious reasoning, but for better or worse you are in 6N, not 6♥. Those in the making slam were divided between 6N and 6♥ anyway.

We took a failing (free) club finesse at trick 1, a deep diamond finesse at trick 2, the T losing to the singleton J, and later a losing heart finesse. Rather an unlucky combined set of circumstances, but probably the non-optimal play for all that. Any takers for the best play? It is easy to see how to make with all 4 hands exposed, but you only have the luxury of seeing the E-W cards.

I have a feeling that playing ♣J from dummy at trick 1 was probably an error, in that if N has the Q then you probably want to win trick 1 in dummy rather than in hand, but hey, the J might have held, so I really don't know.

[awm]

Seems like you were playing for diamonds coming home for 4 tricks, or the heart finesse on without both diamond honors offside. With this line basically:

(1) You're down if diamonds are KJ offside, roughly 25%.
(2) You make if diamonds are KJ(xx) onside, also roughly 25%.
(3) You make if diamonds are Kx(x) or Jx(xx) onside, roughly 40%.
(4) You make if diamonds are Kxxx(x) onside and the heart hook is on, around 5%.

Tallying this up you get about 70% to make.

A better line is to start by playing on hearts. I suggest leading the ♥AK. With this line:

(1) You make if hearts are 3-2 or singleton Q/T. This is roughly 80% ignoring 5-0 breaks.
(2) You make if diamonds are KJ(x) onside when hearts don't break, roughly 5%.
(3) You make if diamonds are Kx(x) or Jx(xx) onside with the long hearts in LHO hand, around 4%.

This is something like 89% to make. I've ignored 5-0 heart breaks but you can switch lines early after someone shows out on the first heart in these cases. On the actual hand the second line makes all 13 tricks.

[1eyedjack]

Your analysis looks good to me. One point of care might be what card to play from dummy at trick 1. If you play ♣K then you must unblock the ♠AJ before cashing the top Hearts. Otherwise if South wins the third Heart with ♥Q (the suit breaking 3-2) and exits with ♦x through dummy's ♦AQ you would be forced to try the ♦ finesse.

So, contrary to my previous instinct, playing ♣J at trick 1 seems to be right. If it wins then all options are preserved. If it is covered by Q and A then communications to both hands are preserved.

[FrancesHinden]

No, I don't think it actually matters. You can win the CK at trick 1 before playing on hearts. If after cashing the AK of hearts you discover they are playing for 1 (or 0) losers you then unblock spades before playing a third heart. Now you have the CA as an entry to the hearts and the DA as an entry to the spades.

[winkle]

1eyedjack, on Sep 19 2006, 12:37 PM, said:

Your analysis looks good to me.  One point of care might be what card to play from dummy at trick 1.  If you play ♣K then you must unblock the ♠AJ before cashing the top Hearts.  Otherwise if South wins the third Heart with ♥Q (the suit breaking 3-2) and exits with ♦x through dummy's ♦AQ you would be forced to try the ♦ finesse.

So, contrary to my previous instinct, playing ♣J at trick 1 seems to be right.  If it wins then all options are preserved.  If it is covered by Q and A then communications to both hands are preserved.

The ♣K is the right card to play at trick one, precisely because you're cold if hearts can come in for one loser. If you apply the analysis you did on the ♣K to the ♣J, you'll find that sometimes you have to take the diamond finesse even when hearts come in.

[FrancesHinden]

One of us is missing something....
Win the club in hand, and play 3 rounds of hearts (assuming they come in for 1 loser). You have the AJ of spades as entries to hand to run the hearts, and you have 2 minor suit entries to table (CK and DA) to get back to the spade suit; they can't remove both of them after winning the heart.

[winkle]

FrancesHinden, on Sep 20 2006, 07:18 AM, said:

One of us is missing something....
Win the club in hand, and play 3 rounds of hearts (assuming they come in for 1 loser). You have the AJ of spades as entries to hand to run the hearts, and you have 2 minor suit entries to table (CK and DA) to get back to the spade suit; they can't remove both of them after winning the heart.

Oops. You are right.