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Can anyone do better?

#1 User is offline   mr1303 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 06:38

I received this in an e-mail from a regular partner of mine, wanting to know how we could bid this 6 contract. I couldn't, I'm ashamed to say. Could anyone else?



South hand is dealer, no opposition interference. Use whatever methods you like, e.g. South opening a strong 1.
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#2 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 07:13

It's only a tiny bit better than 50%. I wouldn't worry about not being in it.
The real challenge (which I would fail) is to play in hearts rather than spades at matchpoints.
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#3 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 07:15

Hi,

I will give it an unsuccesful try:

1NT (1) - 2C (2)
2NT (3) - 3C (4)
3S (5) - 4D (6)
4H (7) - all Pass (8)


(1) 15-17
(2) Stayman, promising inv.+
(3) both mayor
(4) transfer to hearts (*)
(5) max. values, cue in spades,
showing the King or Ace
(6) Cue
(7) what else? everything has
been shown ...
(8) clubs are wide open and there may
be wastage in diamonds

With kind regards
Marlowe

(*) I am not sure, I would transfer to hearts,
I am pretty sure I would transfer to spades
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#4 User is offline   Mr. Dodgy 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 07:23

Spoiler

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#5 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 07:52

6 is effectively a 0% slam.
At least 6 is just about with the odds
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#6 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 08:21

Hum.. I don't think I'd get to this one in any of the systems I've ever played.
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#7 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 08:49

A plausible auction:

1NT (15-17)
2 (I prefer to start these with 2, delayed Texas later if necessary)
2 (good news -- Responder can count 12 if great stuff from Opener)
3 (agrees hearts, at least mild slam interest)
3NT (Maximum -- Serious 3NT)
4 (diamond control -- 1st or 2nd -- no club control)
4 (club and spade controls, 1st or 2nd round)
4NT (1430 RKCB)
5 (three controls)

Responder visualizes Kx-AKxx-xxx-Axxx at worst. That's only a 14-count, and hardly serious. This needs a 3-2 heart split and spades coming in. The Serious 3NT means that something else helpful lurks...
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#8 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 09:13

No-one gets to this one in real life: don't worry about it.

Almost no-one gets to 's in real life: once again, don't worry about it.

It's been said before, but bears repeating when people post hands like this: if you try to concoct bidding sequences that will arrive at the perfect contract all the time, you will be a terrible bidder: every method ever invented (and I predict every method ever to be invented) will be imperfect on a single dummy basis.
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#9 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 10:41

Well here's Sam and my auction:

1(1) - 1(2)
1(3) - 2NT(4)
3(5) - 3(6)
3(5) - 4(7)
4(8) - 4NT(9)
5(8) - 5(10)
6

(1) 16+ artificial
(2) 4+ and 5+ hcp; 2-6 AKQ points (A=3, K=2, Q=1)
(3) Relay, either 4+ or 5+ or GF values
(4) 5+ and 4, short diamonds, game force via fit and/or strength
(5) Relay
(6) 6412 pattern
(7) 4 AKQ points
(8) Kind of pushy relay, but hard to construct hands without stiff K where unsafe
(9) One of top three spades, one of top three hearts, no A/K/Q of clubs
(10) No A/K/Q of diamonds

Of course opener being fairly minimum could easily sign off in 4 over 4 (this slam is not that great after all) but I'm supposing we're looking for a swing in our favor.
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#10 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 11:06

It's easy to get there with symmetric relays, as long as North stretches to bid a positive 1/. Still, it's not that hot a slam. If opps lead a diamond, you'll go down on a couple of bad breaks, like 4-1 hearts and half of the 3-0 spades.
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#11 User is offline   bid_em_up 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 11:39

mikeh, on Sep 18 2006, 10:13 AM, said:

No-one gets to this one in real life: don't worry about it.

Almost no-one gets to 's in real life: once again, don't worry about it.

Its quite easy to get to hearts in real life. Just because you are 6-4 is no reason NOT to employ stayman first, imo. You can always get to spades later (at least a 6-2 fit can be presumed after a NT opening).

1N (15-17)-
2C -
2H (hearts first is fairly normal these days, I believe, and definetely in all of my partnerships)-
4D (splinter agreeing hearts)-?

The 4D splinter is somewhat aggressive, but responder should realize the trick taking potential of his hand opposite a good fitting 1N. With wasted diamond values, or a non-control rich NT opening, opener will simply bid 4H over 4D, so there is not much risk involved with the splinter. Or put another way, with no wasted diamond values, opener holding the AK and the KQ only has 12 hcp so must have additional club values, yes they could be the QJx and 5 is too high, but with this holding opener may choose not to cuebid 4S.

Holding AK trump and a control in each black suit, opener can bid 4S, North knowing opener must also hold at least Kx in spades now (and the 4S cuebid should imply a club control, excellent hearts and no wasted diamond values to continue beyond 4H) can simply inquire about keycards, and then bid 6H.

This is a fairly simple sequence....no terribly advanced methods are required.

(However, I wouldnt be too overly concerned if we stopped in 4H either.)

It isnt so much a question of "Can it be bid?" (of course it can, fairly simply) as opposed to "Should it be bid?". I think that this is a slam that should be bid if you are trailing in a match, if you feel you are outclassed by opps and need as many swings as possible, or if you are in the hunt in the late rounds of a matchpoint tourny and want a top to improve your position; otherwise take the plus score and be happy.

As always, jmoo.
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#12 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 11:40

awm, on Sep 18 2006, 11:41 AM, said:

Well here's Sam and my auction:

1(1) - 1(2)
1(3) - 2NT(4)
3(5) - 3(6)
3(5) - 4(7)
4(8) - 4NT(9)
5(8) - 5(10)
6

(1) 16+ artificial
(2) 4+ and 5+ hcp; 2-6 AKQ points (A=3, K=2, Q=1)
(3) Relay, either 4+ or 5+ or GF values
(4) 5+ and 4, short diamonds, game force via fit and/or strength
(5) Relay
(6) 6412 pattern
(7) 4 AKQ points
(8) Kind of pushy relay, but hard to construct hands without stiff K where unsafe
(9) One of top three spades, one of top three hearts, no A/K/Q of clubs
(10) No A/K/Q of diamonds

Of course opener being fairly minimum could easily sign off in 4 over 4 (this slam is not that great after all) but I'm supposing we're looking for a swing in our favor.

When one plays a relay method, one does NOT relay when an answer can get you too high. In your auction, at the 4 bid, opener cannot safely relay since responder might hold the KQ (not to mention the K) and the Q. On a truly bad day he holds QJ10xxx Kxxx x Qx..... and you are committed to slam.... at least, if I read your methods correctly...on a hand where 4 is hardly cold.

So, yes, your method allows you to get there, but surely no rational player would ask over 4.... you'd sign off and rely upon partner, if he possessed significant extras to bid again (assuming that he has rights, as he does in the relay methods I have played... it is not uncommon for relays to run out of room, and then responder has to deduce relayer's problem... preferably not based upon relayer taking an extended time before signing off....which comes close to barring responder)

Now, if you were stuck a bunch, you might risk it, but that is gambling, not bidding normally, and I think the point was whether there exists a logical way to get there, knowing what you were doing, and your gamble is just a shot in the dark.

I don't think that we are doing the 'wanting to learn' bridge player any favours by posting contrived auctions to get to winnning spots, using unusual methods. I think that doing so risks diverting the efforts of aspiring players away from the basics, in the mistaken idea that esoteric methods afford a short-cut to winning bridge. I know that was not your intent, and I share your enthusiasm for relay methods.
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#13 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 12:03

bid_em_up, on Sep 18 2006, 06:39 PM, said:

Its quite easy to get to hearts in real life. Just because you are 6-4 is no reason NOT to employ stayman first, imo. You can always get to spades later (at least a 6-2 fit can be presumed after a NT opening).

1N (15-17)-
2C -
2H (hearts first is fairly normal these days, I believe, and definetely in all of my partnerships)-
4D (splinter agreeing hearts)-?

The 4D splinter is somewhat aggressive, but responder should realize the trick taking potential of his hand opposite a good fitting 1N. With wasted diamond values, or a non-control rich NT opening, opener will simply bid 4H over 4D, so there is not much risk involved with the splinter.

Holding AK trump and a control in each black suit, opener can bid 4S, North knowing opener must also hold at least Kx in spades now (and the 4S cuebid should imply a club control, excellent hearts and no wasted diamond values to continue beyond 4H) can simply inquire about keycards, and then bid 6H.

This is a fairly simple sequence....no terribly advanced methods are required.

Starting with Stayman on this hand opposite a strong NT gets you to hearts on this hand, true. But with this auction you are also going to play in 4H opposite

KQx
Kxxx
Axx
KQx

(which is a lot more likely to go off than 4S, and is a 17-count with a perfect diamond holding opposite the splinter)

I would say that, on average, 4H in the 4-4 fit opposite a normal strong NT will go off a fair percentage of the time. That makes a splinter just a little aggressive, particularly when opener has no idea you have 6 spades and a doubleton club.

Saying that there is "not much risk" involved in the splinter is also untrue.
If I held

xx
AKxx
Axx
KQJx

and heard the auction start 1NT-2C-2H-4D splinter* I would feel entitled to drive slam opposite a spade control and the trump queen. I would certainly drive the 5-level. How could I have a more suitable 1NT opening? And yet 5H is extremely delicate opposite this.

*I don't play this as a splinter, but suppose we did

In my opinion, the only real chance of getting there is for opener to call his hand 18-19 balanced in a 4CM system and open 1H.
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#14 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 12:16

Not as contrived as it may appear. Over 4 responder's bids are:

4 = No top spade or AQ; at this point relayer can pass to play what's probably the best contract.

4 = One top spade and no top heart, something like Axxxxx xxxx x Qx or Qxxxxx xxxx K Qx. Again relayer can pass to play 4, which should be safe and may in fact be better than the heart contract.

4NT = One top spade and one top heart, no top club. Yes, this could be Qxxxxx Qxxx K xx. However the odds do not particularly favor that hand. We're committed to 5 if partner actually holds it, which could go down on a bad day.

5 = Qxxxxx Qxxx x Kx exactly (plus possible jacks). We'll play a relatively safe 5.

Essentially the only "danger hand" is one including the stiff king of diamonds. Supposing that we know partner has either Q + K or A, the odds say:

For Q + K, partner has 21 possible spade/diamond holdings (21 ways to select 5 of the 7 spades in the deck, excluding the 4 we have and the A/Q).

For A + x, partner has 189 possible spade/diamond holdings (21 ways to select 5 of the 7 spades in the deck, excluding the 4 we have and A/Q, times 9 possible diamond singletons excluding the two we hold and the A/K).

So the odds are 9:1 in favor of A+Q rather than Q+Q+K.

The question did indicate that strong club methods are okay, it wasn't "how do you bid this in 2/1" and this isn't the sayc/2/1 forum.
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#15 User is offline   bid_em_up 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 12:38

FrancesHinden, on Sep 18 2006, 01:03 PM, said:

bid_em_up, on Sep 18 2006, 06:39 PM, said:

Its quite easy to get to hearts in real life. Just because you are 6-4 is no reason NOT to employ stayman first, imo. You can always get to spades later (at least a 6-2 fit can be presumed after a NT opening).

1N (15-17)-
2C -
2H (hearts first is fairly normal these days, I believe, and definetely in all of my partnerships)-
4D (splinter agreeing hearts)-?

The 4D splinter is somewhat aggressive, but responder should realize the trick taking potential of his hand opposite a good fitting 1N.  With wasted diamond values, or a non-control rich NT opening, opener will simply bid 4H over 4D, so there is not much risk involved with the splinter.

Holding AK trump and a control in each black suit, opener can bid 4S, North knowing opener must also hold at least Kx in spades now (and the 4S cuebid should imply a club control, excellent hearts and no wasted diamond values to continue beyond 4H) can simply inquire about keycards, and then bid 6H.

This is a fairly simple sequence....no terribly advanced methods are required.

Starting with Stayman on this hand opposite a strong NT gets you to hearts on this hand, true. But with this auction you are also going to play in 4H opposite

KQx
Kxxx
Axx
KQx

(which is a lot more likely to go off than 4S, and is a 17-count with a perfect diamond holding opposite the splinter)

I would say that, on average, 4H in the 4-4 fit opposite a normal strong NT will go off a fair percentage of the time. That makes a splinter just a little aggressive, particularly when opener has no idea you have 6 spades and a doubleton club.

Saying that there is "not much risk" involved in the splinter is also untrue.
If I held

xx
AKxx
Axx
KQJx

and heard the auction start 1NT-2C-2H-4D splinter* I would feel entitled to drive slam opposite a spade control and the trump queen. I would certainly drive the 5-level. How could I have a more suitable 1NT opening? And yet 5H is extremely delicate opposite this.

*I don't play this as a splinter, but suppose we did

In my opinion, the only real chance of getting there is for opener to call his hand 18-19 balanced in a 4CM system and open 1H.

For every hand you "design" to make it a bad contract, I can design 5 others that make it great. To each their own.

While you certainly attempt to do a good job of tearing the initial parts of my posts apart, as usual, you fail to notice (or at the very least) acknowledge the fact that I put the caveats in that hearts can reasonably be achieved as the trump suit, AND that the slam probably should NOT be bid unless there were specific other factors involved. And there are many other hands where 4H will make, but 4S may not....what about those? Do I need to design a few of those for you as well? Geez.

In the case of your "one" hand (out of how many gazillion?) where you hold a max NT with no spade control, well....stuff happens. But again, one hand out of ?????. Too many other hands will allow it to make. (Yes, the 4D bid is aggressive....I also noted that as well.....assume it is a normal splinter such as AJ10xxx Qxxx x Ax, now how bad is it???????????)

I wont even comment on not playing 4 of minor as a splinter agreeing the major, because I must assume that it means something else in your system, although I cannot, at this moment, come up with any other reasonable meaning for the bid.
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#16 User is offline   EricK 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 12:58

If you start with Stayman and find the Heart fit on this hand, would you also find the Spade slam if the majors were reversed?
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#17 User is offline   bid_em_up 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 13:28

While you can certainly find the spade fit as well, it becomes harder for the NT bidder to envision that the lack of diamond values is an asset to the hand. There are methods where responder can determine openers exact hand pattern after a NT opening, but I would not use them here.

Assume that responder is 4-6-1-2 as you suggest.

1N-2C-2H-2S (still forcing)-3S-4C-4D-4H-? or 1N 2C 2H 2S 3C 4D-? could work, but its harder for either hand to envision the power of the long suit, the 4-4 fit and the fact that there are no wasted diamond values, and I would normally expect either of these auctions to end in 4M, unless employing other gadgets as well (ie, 1N 2C 2N = max, both majors, which isnt necessarily a bad treatment except for hands where partner is attempting to escape 1N at the two level, which is the main factor in why I dont usually play it that way).
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#18 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2006-September-18, 13:34

awm, on Sep 18 2006, 01:16 PM, said:

Not as contrived as it may appear. Over 4 responder's bids are:

4 = No top spade or AQ; at this point relayer can pass to play what's probably the best contract.

4 = One top spade and no top heart, something like Axxxxx xxxx x Qx or Qxxxxx xxxx K Qx. Again relayer can pass to play 4, which should be safe and may in fact be better than the heart contract.

4NT = One top spade and one top heart, no top club. Yes, this could be Qxxxxx Qxxx K xx. However the odds do not particularly favor that hand. We're committed to 5 if partner actually holds it, which could go down on a bad day.

5 = Qxxxxx Qxxx x Kx exactly (plus possible jacks). We'll play a relatively safe 5.

Essentially the only "danger hand" is one including the stiff king of diamonds. Supposing that we know partner has either Q + K or A, the odds say:

For Q + K, partner has 21 possible spade/diamond holdings (21 ways to select 5 of the 7 spades in the deck, excluding the 4 we have and the A/Q).

For A + x, partner has 189 possible spade/diamond holdings (21 ways to select 5 of the 7 spades in the deck, excluding the 4 we have and A/Q, times 9 possible diamond singletons excluding the two we hold and the A/K).

So the odds are 9:1 in favor of A+Q rather than Q+Q+K.

The question did indicate that strong club methods are okay, it wasn't "how do you bid this in 2/1" and this isn't the sayc/2/1 forum.

I did get the point about using non-standard methods, and nothing in my posts should have suggested otherwise.

As for the relay over 4 being low risk, I agree.... and maybe the difference lies in our views of the best approach to relay methods. When I played relay (it was not in a strong method), relayer did not ever ask a question when the answer could embarrass him.... we used relay because we felt it led us to accurate auctions, not merely improved guessing. We dealt with the inadequacies of relays at high levels by using a rule that the more questions relayer asked, the stronger his hand, and so responder was permitted to bid over a relay break if he could see undisclosed and valuable assets AND could use logic to deduce that relayer could not relay precisely because the wrong answer would get us too high.

If you use relay such that relayer is in total control, then you probably have to allow relayer to take a shot on some hands... and in that case, I stand corrected when I said that no-one would ever bid slam at the table :o
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#19 User is offline   TheoKole 

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Posted 2006-September-19, 11:38

Perhaps a possible route would be

1 NT -2 (able to use stayman because Delayed Texas is on our CC)

2 (I always respond with with 4-4 in majors)- 4 (Splinter)*
*agrees hearts as trumps

4 (NT hand just grew) - 4 NT (keycard)**
**(normally I would be worried about clubs but opposite a strong NT who cuebids my 6 card suit implies a control in clubs)

after keycard north finds 1 Ace missing and bids 6 .

This doesn't have very complex methods, but requires judgement from both partners to re-evaluate their hands' potential as the bidding progresses.

Theo
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