[jtfanclub]

Gerben42, on Aug 23 2006, 07:35 AM, said:

Anyway I don't think Pass is an option here, and believe me if I bid in this kind of situations that Pass isn't an option.

Fair enough. So how much worse would the hand have to be before you'd pass with it?

[mikestar]

I'm passing--then they presumably bid 1♠ and I can come back in with 2♥ and there is no danger of partner getting too high.

[mike777]

Alot of these comments make no sense to me.

If 2h means any range how can north bid bid 3h unless he assumes the opp are in a 8 card fit.

If you are going to assume the opp are in a 8 card fit at the 2 level then south can reopen with x and play in 3clubs in the 4-4 fit after starting with 1nt or choose to compete to 3H.

As for pass I would never pass 1H opening with 3 hearts and an Ace or King somewhere.

[jdeegan]

No doubt that 3♥ is the place to be on this hand. I just can't see how I could bid it with either hand. Opener is 3-5-1-4 with a spade trick, weak hearts and a motley collection of high cards. Responder has a weak raise with three card support. Both hands say pass to me.

I'm thinking of running a simulation of some sort. I just can't believe taking the push with the North hand, while certainly not terrible, is a winner on balance even NV in matchpoints.

Wait a minute. Can't the E-W hands make 3♠?

[whereagles]

jdeegan, on Aug 27 2006, 04:47 AM, said:

No doubt that 3♥ is the place to be on this hand. I just can't see how I could bid it with either hand. Opener is 3-5-1-4 with a spade trick, weak hearts and a motley collection of high cards. Responder has a weak raise with three card support. Both hands say pass to me.

I'm thinking of running a simulation of some sort. I just can't believe taking the push with the North hand, while certainly not terrible, is a winner on balance even NV in matchpoints.

Wait a minute. Can't the E-W hands make 3♠?

I take it you're assuming opener got a raise, e.g. it went 1♥-pass-2♥-2♠.

In that case, the FTL analysis is that it's quite possible that responder has a doubleton spade, making it a SST of 3. In that case 16-18 working points are usually enough for 9 tricks. Opener has like 10-11, and responder should have anything from 5 to 9 WPs. On average 3♥ rates to make. But of course, if pard comes up with a tripleton spade...

As for whether 3♠ makes, I threw away the "oracle" sheet of makeable contracts, but I seem to remember 3♠ does make. Not that opps will bid it all the time over 3♥. Maybe they stop to double you and see it make

[Chamaco]

The problem is not the constructive raise, which is a real need IMHO.

The main problem is the inclusion of hands with 3 card support in the forcing Notrump.

There are plenty of possible solutions for removing hands with support from the forcing notrump (mostly based on transfer raises).

But, of course, this will just transform the system in something different from the common definition of 2/1 (and this would just make the thread deviate from the main point).

My personal opinion is that the forcing notrump, *in its most common usage* is plausible at IMPS (sometimes we lose a partscore, oh well, but has some other payoffs); but I am not very comfortable with it at Matchpoints, where:
a- the fit should be delivered ASAP;
b- it would be nice to play 1NT sometimes.

Just my 2 cents

[Gpm_bg]

Certainly you can found so many attractive games when dummy is so stupid hand, and combined with other hand game is terrific.
But i follow that mind that bridge except sense should contain and logic bids
I vote for pass not becouse that % was less but becose that hand don't contain nothing more then 3 cards fit support and 2 controls shown by Ace.
more value will have hand with same key cards but other addtional cards

♠x
♥109x
♦A109xx
♣J109x

and with that cards is reasonable for me to show 2♥ support

that is only my opinion, but trust me i'm not passive player, just i respect jumps, cue bid, and other support conventional bids.
you should know did partner have good card or just try to scary oponents

[jdeegan]

whereagles, on Aug 27 2006, 05:48 AM, said:

jdeegan, on Aug 27 2006, 04:47 AM, said:

No doubt that 3♥ is the place to be on this hand.  I just can't see how I could bid it with either hand. Opener is 3-5-1-4 with a spade trick, weak hearts and a motley collection of high cards.  Responder has a weak raise with three card support.  Both hands say pass to me.

I'm thinking of running a simulation of some sort.  I just can't believe taking the push with the North hand, while certainly not terrible, is a winner on balance even NV in matchpoints.

Wait a minute.  Can't the E-W hands make 3♠?

I take it you're assuming opener got a raise, e.g. it went 1♥-pass-2♥-2♠.

In that case, the FTL analysis is that it's quite possible that responder has a doubleton spade, making it a SST of 3. In that case 16-18 working points are usually enough for 9 tricks. Opener has like 10-11, and responder should have anything from 5 to 9 WPs. On average 3♥ rates to make. But of course, if pard comes up with a tripleton spade...

As for whether 3♠ makes, I threw away the "oracle" sheet of makeable contracts, but I seem to remember 3♠ does make. Not that opps will bid it all the time over 3♥. Maybe they stop to double you and see it make

I love your analytical approach. Let's see where it leads. The bidding has gone 1♥-P-2♥-2♠-???? and I'm looking at opener's hand. According to FTL, my working points are 10 and my short suit is one. Partner's total HCP are in the 6 to 9 range plus or minus one or two occasionally. His short suit ought to be a doubleton (or better) in one of the black suits over 90% of the time.

Per FTL, our side's tricks will be (13-3- adjustment for WP) nearly all the time. The issue is wasted HCP's in partner's hand, i.e. his diamond cards. Spade cards are partly working (but less likely to be there given the bidding), heart cards are WP's as are club cards. Diamond cards are wasted except for the ace. In summary:

Working cards: ♥ A, Q and J plus ♣ Q and J, plus ♦A
Semi-working: ♠ A and K
Wasted (almost always): ♦ K and Q

Total of ten cards, and partner has two or three. All but the ♠ A and K are equally likely to be in partner's hand given the bidding, imo. It looks to me like the expectancy is for about 25% of partner's 6 to 9 HCP to be wasted. The mean value of WP's looks to be 5 or 6, which go with my 10. On this basis the average value of FTL ought to be 13-3-1.5 = 8.5. This makes a 3♥ bid look pretty good not vul.

The bad heart suit with the ten spot turns out to be a virtue on the bidding after partner raises the suit as it increases the odds his points are working. The 'hidden' stiff in diamonds is super big, as modern bidding theory now suggests. The hand is better than I first thought.

[paulhar]

Quite a difference of opinion here. One person passes because it's a 10-loser hand without a heart honor (so is AJ10/9832/AJ10/J32) and another would never pass with support and an ace or king (presumably bidding on 432/432/432/K432, or worse, 65432/432/5432/K). I hope these two are never partners.

Before I get flamed too bad, I'll add that this post is totally tongue in cheek...

[Chamaco]

paulhar, on Aug 29 2006, 11:16 PM, said:

Quite a difference of opinion here.  One person passes because it's a 10-loser hand without a heart honor (so is AJ10/9832/AJ10/J32)

AJ10/9832/AJ10/J32

is not a 10 loser hand simply because a AJT suit cannot be treated the same as Axx

A suit like AJT is closer to be a 1+ loser hand (1.25 if you wish).
Hence, this hand is about a 8.5 loser hand, basically slight less than a limit raise: more or less what we'd come up to by simply using common sense :-)

[Gerben42]

Okay could make 3♥ after all, dummy can overruff the ♥. Still have to some correct decisions to make though as declarer. All very lucky though.

How much weaker and I'd pass? Instead of AT9x in ♦ give me K9xx and I pass. Many would still bid, I suppose.

[whereagles]

jdeegan: FTL rocks... but only if you can do the calculations at table

[kenberg]

Gerben42, on Aug 30 2006, 04:31 AM, said:

Okay could make 3♥ after all, dummy can overruff the ♥. Still have to some correct decisions to make though as declarer. All very lucky though.

Yes, there are definitely choices to be made by N. From time to time, folks lament that we have too little discussion of play. The play and defense for a 3 ♥ contract is interesting. In choosing his line, declarer might note that if E holds QJx then the defense can always take three trump tricks: E ruffs the third spade with the Q, W rises on the first trump lead and puts another spade through for the promotion. So in placing the cards, he rules out QJx on his left. The trouble with this is that while E can and probably should play this way holding QJx, there is no guarantee that he would. So N has a problem. An interesting case arises when E holds Qx or Jx of trump. If he can bring himself to not ruff at trick 3, he will probably set the contract. The play that is right when E holds AQx or AJx (the actual case here) is to go to the board, play a trump to the 8, then after regaining the lead smother the honor in the W hand. If E instead started with Qx but tosses a side suit at T3, this line will fail (and rising with the king on the first trump would succeed). Actually not ruffing when holding Qx is probably safe and potentially profitable. That's not the same as saying I would be up to doing it. Smoothly.


It's pretty clear that 9 tricks will be made at spades. Nine tricks can be, and probably will be, made in hearts. This gives a trick total of 18, while the trump total is 16. Of course NS have 16 cards in two suits (and so automatically EW have 16 cards in the other two suits) so no doubt the famous LOTT adjustments come into play. But at the time N has to decide about raising 2H to 3 over the 2S bid, he doesn't even know the trump total let alone the second fit. Perhaps the stiff ♦ is a clue though.


I bid 3H over 2S (given that partner bid 2H at his turn) on the general grounds that if we have hearts and they have spades it is often right to consider 3H. I realize it is not certain they have a spade fit, but I have some shape and I'll give it a try. Bridge history, even at the highest level, is full of hands that should have been beaten but weren't and bids that should have been doubled but weren't. And maybe 3H is right, as here, either because it makes or is down 1 against a making 2S. When vulnerable, no thanks.

K

[jdeegan]

whereagles, on Aug 30 2006, 04:46 AM, said:

jdeegan: FTL rocks... but only if you can do the calculations at table

True. Hard to apply FTL on many hands at the table. But, consider the lessons on this one that have general application to other hands.

1. Opposite a limited-hand raise, a suit like K10872 is extra good because it increases the odds that partner's few honor cards will be working points. An empty suit like K8542 has an expected trick taking value of close to a trick worse.

2. The unbid suit singleton is extra good, better than older texts would suggest.

3. Holdings like QJ9 in the opponents' suit have the merit of converting an honor in partner's hand into working points.

4. Even the stiff jack of diamonds has a minor plus value since it will generate some tricks opposite the KQ.

Lesson one alone is worth the price of admission.

[whereagles]

Good points. Something to consider for new textbooks on bidding.