[hrothgar]

inquiry, on Jul 11 2006, 02:16 AM, said:

In other words, your example RICHARD IS ALWAYS GOING TO FAIL 1OO% TO ANSWER WHAT THE POST ASKED FOR. 

I'm gonna exit this conversation before I say something that I regret and get banned from the forums...

[Rain]

This is an interesting topic for bidding enthusiasts, probably not difficult to keep on track here. Ben, Richard, hardly need to remind you to be civil.

[Blofeld]

Erm, Ben, I think we all know that those up/downgrades don't apply in this auction. But that's precisely why Richard suggests it as a beginning (or at least, that's why I'd suggest it). It's not a question of understanding ZAR points here so much as a question of teaching style.

The school that Richard is subscribing to here (I haven't thought about the issue of which school is best very much, but this has a certain appeal) is that new concepts are easiest met a bit at a time. If one first looks at ZAR points in very simple everyday auctions where one doesn't even need them (and they work in these auctions, right? it's just that they agree with everyone's judgement) then one gets a better feeling for the basic ZAR points, and then can understand the entire system better when one introduces situations where one needs misfit points etc. Whereas if one is straightaway supposed to deal with all of them, having previously been unfamiliar with the system, there is a very real danger of getting confused by the number of things going on. To reevaluate, first learn to evaluate so that it comes naturally.

[awm]

Basically ZAR points are just suggesting the following:

Long suits are good. 7222 is better than 5332.
Short suits are good. 5440 is better than 5332.
Controls are good. An ace is worth more like three queens than two.

If you have a suit fit, then points in the suit are good. Side queens and jacks are good if either you or partner has length in that side suit, and bad otherwise.

Shortness is extra nice when you have a huge fit between the two hands. It's useful in any case, but worth more in (say) a 5-5 fit than a 5-3.

If you have a suit fit, then it's good when side suits are breaking unevenly between the two hands (because you can ruff 'em out).

If you have no suit fit, then it's not particularly helpful to have suits break unevenly between the hands (6-1 in NT is not particularly better than 4-3, because of transportation issues).

To a great degree I think all these points are pretty obviously correct. The claimed contribution of ZAR is quantifying the value of these things in a way that can be computed mathematically, and claiming that this is a reasonable substitute for expert judgement built up over many hands. In addition, Zar has done a great deal of simulation work to indicate that ZAR points are reasonably accurate in this respect. So the remaining questions:

(1) Are ZAR points too hard to compute at the table? Is there an easier alternative with comparable accuracy (it seems very clear that ZAR is more accurate than simple 4-3-2-1 points, but not so clear that it's better than 3-2-1-0.5 with reasonable adjustments for fit/distribution)?

(2) How do ZAR points interact with bidding system design? It seems clear that if you plan to use them, your methods should try to uncover the various things you need to know to compute them. Also, your system should be flexible enough to keep up with the changing hand evaluations as more is learned about the nature of the fit.

[SoTired]

Thank you for the explanation of ZAR points. I, too, have found the website totally incomprehensible. The original poster was interested in learning ZAR and was not interested in whether or not it was worthwhile. But I guess you can't get one without the other. I have my opinions, too, but I will keep them to myself.


More questions:
1) Has anybody translated a current system to ZAR? Like Precision or 2/1?
2) Is ZAR accurate for all hands? Balanced and unbalanced. NT or suit. I.e. Can I forget about HCP, and LTC or whatever I used before and use ZAR instead?
3) If I use ZAR exclusively, how do I explain to the opps our bidding? Is there a handy ZAR to HCP scale when explaining bids based on ZAR?

[inquiry]

Blofeld, on Jul 10 2006, 06:45 PM, said:

Erm, Ben, I think we all know that those up/downgrades don't apply in this auction. But that's precisely why Richard suggests it as a beginning (or at least, that's why I'd suggest it). It's not a question of understanding ZAR points here so much as a question of teaching style.

While there maybe method to Richard's suggest approach, I suggest you re-read the post by Mike777. I will highlight the points of it for you.

• someone discuss what Zar points are, how to count full zar adjuted points
  
• I am not interested in yet another debate on whether they work or why they work or do not.
  
• Ben mentioning them but it seems many times he Counts Full Zar adjusted points and then downgrades them or upgrades them which make them seem even more mysterious
  
• I understand opening, fit or nonfit, opener or responder, sac etc may all count them differently, I am only asking how not the why.

From this, he is not asking, how well it works or where the break point is. In fact he is specially asking NOT to do that. He also is not asking how to count ZAR points, (he said "I udnerstand opening, fit or notfit, [but] opener or responder, sac etc may count them differently, I am only asking how, not why").

With this framework, what does Richard tell him to do? Look only at 1NT-2C-2M-3M auctions (how frequent is that one???). And see how to opener applies ZAR to decide to bid 4M or pass. Within that framework, there is no up or down adjusments. There is nothing Mike777 asked for.

Will Richard example teach how to count ZAR points in opener hand. Sure, with zero corrections, but you can count ZAR in any hand, nothing special there about 1NT. Will Richard's example give any experience with adjustments up or down? Absolutely, totally not. His example was totally unresponsive to the orginal request. This I pointed out, and why. Glad he is not responding anymore, so now we can move forward with some examples of how to upgrade or down grade hands via ZAR points.

[inquiry]

Since no guinea pig volunteered, I will use the first 25 hands I declared starting in Jan, 2006. I will start with the first five to keep the legnth managable. These are fairly unexciting but on most hands, ZAR or any other general evaluation methods work fairly painlessly, but if I go any other way than show "random hands" (here the first 25 someone (me) declared), there will be accusation of picking the hands.

Hand one, I held:
S K7
H J872
D J63
C K732

Partner opened 1D, next hand doubled. What is my ZAR points? I have 8 hcp, 2 controls, 10 distributional points. I can add one for the diamond JACK although I am not certain we have a diamond fit. So I have 21 ZARS. Partner has in theory, 26 plus. Even if she is minimum, we will have around 47 ZARS which is around 3 level being safe (47 is minimum for 3 level, so try to stay off it if that is the limit). I bid 1H. Partner raised to 2H and the next hand bid 2S.

Since hearts is “my suit”, I get no points for the heart jack. Since I have the four trumps promised, I get no point for the doubleton spade. So my hand stays at 21 ZARS. Partner will not have 31 ZARS for sure, so no 52. So I am done. On this hand, partner balanced back to 3H. The full hand was:

 IMP-1       Rain        Dlr: North 
Board 40243 S A94       Vul: Both
            H AK3       
elzearnh    D KT952     sturwic     
S T32       C 94        S QJ865     
H T654                  H Q9        
D Q84       inquiry     D A7        
C J85       S K7        C AQT6      
            H J872      
            D J63       
            C K732      

East       South      West       North      
elzearnh   Rain       sturwic    inquiry    
37.02      60.27      44.37      55.36      
                                 Pass       
Pass       1D         Dbl        1H         
Pass       2H         2S         Pass       
Pass       3H         Pass       Pass       
Pass       

=======================================
  # Contr   Ld  Decl     Tr  Score   Pts
 =======================================
  1 4DX   S DA  oguz63   11   910  12.00          
  2 4DX   S S8  hacisuley10   710   9.60          
  3 2CX   W D3  aliinan   6   500   6.27          
  4 3C    W D3  nkatz2    5   400   4.13          
  5 1N    N ST  wzielak  11   210  -0.27          
  6 2SX   W D3  sony2407  7   200  -0.33          
  7 1N    S SJ  fettah   10   180  -0.93          
  8 2D    S SQ  jcelh    11   150  -1.67          
  9 3H    N S2  inquiry   9   140  -1.87          
 10 2D    S S6  lopeski  10   130  -2.40          
 11 3D    S SQ  IrenePari10   130  -2.40          
 12 2D    S SQ  mila50   10   130  -2.40          
 13 1N    N S2  anyar     8   120  -2.53          
 14 2D    S S8  marso83   8    90  -3.20          
 15 1S    W DJ  0zanza    7   -80  -7.00          
 16 1S    W D3  alpilles  7   -80  -7.00         

The second hand I declared was this one. I have 8 hcp, 3 controls, 15 distributional (6Sx2=12, 4C-1H = 3, 12+3=15). This is 26 ZAR points.

The bidding was 2D on my left, partner doubled, RHO bid 2H. I have an opening hand, partner has an opening hand, I have two extra spades and a presumed spade fit, so I get two points for the singleton diamond for each extra trump. This is 29. Easy 4S bid.
S AKJ932
H 2
D 96
C 8764

Four Spades turns out to be too much, as it can be defeated with proper defense (the trump squeeze almost works and will if West throws a club) if they switch to a diamond at trick two).

IMP-1       Rain        Dlr: East  
Board 40283 S Q86       Vul: Both
            H KQ65      
elzearnh    D 52        sturwic     
S T5        C AQJ2      S 74        
H AJ7                   H T9843     
D KJT743    inquiry     D AQ8       
C T3        S AKJ932    C K95       
            H 2         
            D 96        
            C 8764      

East       South      West       North      
elzearnh   Rain       sturwic    inquiry    
2D         Dbl        2H         4S         
Pass       Pass       Pass       
=======================================
  # Contr   Ld  Decl     Tr  Score   Pts
 =======================================
  1 4S    N HA  Melodykan12   680  10.33          
  2 4S    N HA  inquiry  11   650   9.93          
  3 4S    N ST  djitea   11   650   9.93          
  4 4S    N HA  Anne0    11   650   9.93          
  5 2S    N CT  PITTIG   10   170   1.87          
  6 3S    N CT  serifoglu10   170   1.87          
  7 3S    N CT  denkar    9   140   0.93          
  8 4S    N C3  shannon   9  -100  -4.20          
  9 4S    N D3  gosvig    9  -100  -4.20          
 10 4S    N D3  DJF523    9  -100  -4.20          
 11 4S    N CT  steph37   9  -100  -4.20          
 12 4S    N CT  hsntuerker9  -100  -4.20          
 13 4S    N CT  ERDAL11   9  -100  -4.20          
 14 4S    N D3  florinis  9  -100  -4.20          
 15 4S    N H7  ctilden   9  -100  -4.20          
 16 5H    N DJ  january   6  -500 -11.20

Third hand I declared. 10 hcp (ignore singleton jack), 4 control, 13 distributional. 27 Zar points. With four spades, two more than I actually need in “theory.” So I have no problem opening 1D. West doubled and partner jumped to 3D limit raise. Think about 24 ZAR points. So opposite 24, I easily pass. Not rocket science.
S 8762
H AQ7
D AT973
C J

Full Hand was:

 IMP-1       Rain        Dlr: North 
Board 40306 S A         Vul: None
            H T964      
marijke70   D QJ84      sturwic     
S T93       C Q973      S KQJ54     
H KJ3                   H 852       
D K6        inquiry     D 52        
C AK854     S 8762      C T62       
            H AQ7       
            D AT973     
            C J         

East       South      West       North      
marijke70  Rain       sturwic    inquiry    
                                 1D         
Dbl        3D         Pass       Pass       
Pass       

=======================================
  # Contr   Ld  Decl     Tr  Score   Pts
 =======================================
  1 3D    N CA  inquiry  10   130   4.13          
  2 3D    N CA  orlen07  10   130   4.13          
  3 2D    N CA  purshi    9   110   3.27          
  4 3S    W DA  robidgood 7   100   3.27          
  5 4SX   W CJ  michele14 9   100   3.27          
  6 4S    W CJ  kidcasey  9    50   1.80          
  7 3S    W DA  JOEWONG   8    50   1.80          
  8 3S    W CJ  anedim    8    50   1.80          
  9 Pa      C2  caterin   0     0   0.33          
 10 3D    N CK  nalia     8   -50  -0.93          
 11 1N    W D7  sofianne  7   -90  -2.00          
 12 3S    W CJ  peselek   9  -140  -3.47          
 13 3S    W HA  903eagle  9  -140  -3.47          
 14 2S    E DQ  I-palooka 9  -140  -3.47          
 15 4D    N CK  harryrr   7  -150  -3.47          
 16 4DX   N CK  armando1  8  -300  -7.00 

Fourth hand, is a ZAR monster despite its low hcp. I held, 12 hcp, 5 control pts, 15 distributional pts. This is 32 ZARS. I open 1H, bidding continues DBL to my left and partner redoubles.
S AJ93
H AK8632
D 73
C 3

This is beginning to sound like a misfit auction, if partner is short in hearts, we might not go too high, and we might hammer them. My RHO bids 2C, and I pass for the time being (I like to play 2/3 doubles here, but with rain, I have no agreement). The bidding is passed back to partner, who jumps to 3H over the 2C. So now we have a fit, I can add 2 points for the club stiff and the extra heart. So now I have 34 points. Question is was 3H game force or invite? If invite, partner has mid 20’s. Say 25+32 = is only 57, which is well less than slam values. I know about the “super” fit in hearts, but I have no info on the degree of fit in any suits. If forcing, partner could have more than 26. I cuebid 3S, partner bids 4H, I figure it is game invite at best, so I pass.

Note, if rain jumps to 3D over double, as fit jump, I know about her general strength (just less than GF) and fit, and that she has five diamonds to my two, so superfit calculations might become possible. But here, no way.

MP-1       Rain        Dlr: West  
Board 40308 S 84        Vul: Both
            H QJ7       
marijke70   D AK654     sturwic     
S Q72       C J85       S KT65      
H 954                   H T         
D QT9       inquiry     D J82       
C AKQT      S AJ93      C 97642     
            H AK8632    
            D 73        
            C 3         

East       South      West       North      
marijke70  Rain       sturwic    inquiry        
                      Pass       1H         
Dbl        Rdbl       2C         Pass       
Pass       3H         Pass       3S         
Pass       4H         Pass       Pass       
Pass       

Let’s evaluate rain’s hand. 5332 gets 11 distributional pts. She has 11 hcp, but she needs to discount the club jack on the bidding, so make it 10. She has 3 control points and two fit points for the QJ of hearts. With only three hearts, she gets no bonus point for the doubleton heart. There is no way to diagnosis the superfit here, so she will take just her 11+10+3+2 for 26 Zars. So she should force to game in theory. 

=======================================
  # Contr   Ld  Decl     Tr  Score   Pts
 =======================================
  1 5CX   E DK  g ardasa  8   800   5.40          
  2 5CX   E HQ  tiro      8   800   5.40          
  3 4H    N CQ  WaltBon  11   650   1.53          
  4 4H    N CA  inquiry  11   650   1.53          
  5 4H    N CA  yaruyar  11   650   1.53          
  6 4H    N CA  samy 1   11   650   1.53          
  7 4H    N CA  gtusa    11   650   1.53          
  8 4H    N CA  rensch   11   650   1.53          
  9 4H    N CA  serifoglu11   650   1.53          
 10 4H    N CA  marisemm210   620   0.47          
 11 4H    N CA  cap7     10   620   0.47          
 12 4H    N CA  Pullela  10   620   0.47          
 13 4H    N CA  mgchat   10   620   0.47          
 14 4H    N H4  TheCoach 10   620   0.47          
 15 4H    N CA  cecilik   9  -100 -11.93          
 16 4H    N CA  shannon   9  -100 -11.93 

The fifth hand was:
S JT3
H A9754
D 8
C KT95
My RHO passed, I have 8 hcp, 3 controls, 13 dp (distributional points from now on). This is only 24. An easy pass. LHO opened 1NT passed back to me. Against my better judgement, with distribution, I can’t stand it. I bid 2H. This is doubled and I play it there. No fit points here, not much of a story (other than I made 2Hx).

 IMP-1       Rain        Dlr: West  
Board 40331 S A65       Vul: None
            H Q8        
tapan       D K932      sturwic     
S Q974      C J874      S K82       
H KJ                    H T632      
D AQJ6      inquiry     D T754      
C A32       S JT3       C Q6        
            H A9754     
            D 8         
            C KT95      

East       South      West       North      
tapan      Rain       sturwic    inquiry    
                      Pass       Pass       
1NT        Pass       Pass       2H         
Dbl        Pass       Pass       Pass       

=======================================
  # Contr   Ld  Decl     Tr  Score   Pts
 =======================================
  1 2HX   N S4  inquiry   9   570  11.60          
  2 1N    E C4  Kati1     6    50   1.93          
  3 1N    E D2  rerlan    6    50   1.93          
  4 2S    E H8  ARTGLAD   7    50   1.93          
  5 1N    E D2  cafra33   6    50   1.93          
  6 1N    E D2  suncha    6    50   1.93          
  7 Pa      C2  ferty     0     0   0.53          
  8 1N    E S5  brou2000  7   -90  -2.07          
  9 1N    E D2  bandius   7   -90  -2.07          
 10 1N    E C4  gabryg    7   -90  -2.07          
 11 1N    E D2  ourson_   7   -90  -2.07          
 12 1N    E D2  Arab1     7   -90  -2.07          
 13 1N    E D2  monaakl   7   -90  -2.07          
 14 1N    E D2  fede80    7   -90  -2.07          
 15 2S    S S8  gulcan20055  -150  -3.67          
 16 1N    E D2  Paula191  9  -150  -3.67          

[keylime]

Many of you haven't realized this but I as well used Zar Points when I developed and played KLPV15. Here are my thoughts about Zar.

1. With Zar I felt that I was able to enter the auction much more freely as opener. I liked the fact I could in a limited bid method open light and get in there. However in a 2/1 setup Zar doesn't function very well UNLESS you're willing to drop the cornerstone of the approach: that a 2/1 is forcing to game.

2. Slam bidding with Zar was when mentally fresh a joy. When tired tho it was a grind at times. I feel at times my play suffered markedly.

3. I think Zar is beneficial to evaluation...if you have the mindset to manage it. Otherwise I prefer the 6421 scale which I currently use.

[mike777]

Ok thanks Ben I think I understand the basic Zar opening bid.

Next though is what do the common responder bids show in Zar
single raises
limit raises
etc

Also what are the levels need for partscores and games, slams, etc?

thank you in advance.

[inquiry]

mike777, on Jul 11 2006, 02:08 PM, said:

Ok thanks Ben I think I understand the basic Zar opening bid.

Next though is what do the common responder bids show in Zar
single raises
limit raises
etc

Also what are the levels need for partscores and games, slams, etc?

thank you in advance.

Ok, if you are going to "convert" to ZAR points, keep in mind that 52 ZAR points is game. So a limit raise should be one where if partner has "extras" (more then minimum) he willl bid game. This is almost identical to the normal limit raise values times two.

That is, if a normal limit raise is 11-12 hcp, the ZAR limit raise is 22 to 24 ZAR points (more or less). Partner with 25, 26, 27 ZARS might pass, with 28 he clearly will bid game.

A constructive raise would be weaker. So you see, you can almost conder 1 HCP = 1 ZAR point for these raises. The main difference being the range is wider but the points are easier to come by... The range of the direct raise to 1H or 1S to 2H or 2S depends upon how strong your 1H or 2H bid can be. If you were playing a precision based system with strong bids going through 1C so 1M is capped at about 32 ZARs, you can see that a simple raise would have to have some substantial values. It takes 20 ZAR points (including fit) to have game opposite such a hand. If you could be be stronger for 1H/1S then it could be less. But of course, the upper limit is whatever is less than you limit raise. So if your limit raise is 22 to 24 ZARS (or 23 to 25 or 22 to 25), then the constuctive raise should be 19 or 18 in pinch to just less than the limit raise). If your upper limit is 21 ZARS for the constructive raise, then opener with less than 31 need not try for game. I tend to use the higher range for limit raise (23 to 25 ZARS) and use a constructive raise of 19 to 22. Zar suggest a different range. But to be fair, he has modified his system to make counting superfit much easier, and his 1M opening is limited to 30 ZARS and a 4 or 5 card suit.

The use of ZAR points in the decision process is almost a 2 for 1 with hcp, but because distribution and fit points count so much, you willl find you will be making these bids on a lot less total hcp (but the total will be the same 2 to 1 ratio).

Let'e examine a very few hands...

Scoring: IMP

Three passes to partner who opens 1C in fourth seat. RHO ovecalls 1S, you double, and RHO bids 2S. Partner presses to 3H. What do you do?

---

How good is your hand? Two ACES and the queen of clubs in partners suit looks pretty good. 10HCP has to be close to a maiximum, right? Well, look at your ZAR points. 10 hcp, 4 cp, only 8 Dp. that is 22 ZAR points. For fit, you get one for the ten of hearts. This hand is not nearly as good as it would be if you ahd a doubleton diamond (gaining you 3 more zar points, two for DP, and one for ruffing value). I will not say bidding 4H is wrong, it just turns out bad if you do, or if your partner passes 2S. They make 2S, you are down one in 3H.

Here is another one.. maybe I will not answer this one right away.

Scoring: IMP

Three passes to partner who opens 1C in fourth seat. RHO ovecalls 1S, you double, and RHO bids 2S. Partner presses to 3H. What do you do?

---

Scoring: IMP

Three passes to partner who opens 1C in fourth seat. RHO ovecalls 1S, you double, and RHO bids 2S. Partner presses to 3H. What do you do?

---

This one is deceptively easy. First we have a super fit (9S). Second, partner started with at least 25 ZARS, and in support of you he will garner a few more, probably an honor in spades and certainly some ruffing value. You know about the minimum suit differential of 3 in hearts and 2 in the minors (partner with at least 9 cards in major has max of 4 in minors, you have 6). So there are some 5 superpoints on the table. Lets count yours. You have 7 hcp, you have 3 control point and 12 distributional points. That is 22. With 5 superfit points you actually have enough to bid game (22+5 plus partner 25 before any upgrades = 52). Close your eyes, bid game. The full hand? If invited would north have bid game? Only one table bid 4S that wasn't pushed there by overbiddign by EW. This was the table (true it was a little lucky hearts were 3-3, but spades could have been 2-2 also).

IMP-50 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]Dlr: North 
Board 1937 [space]S AQ42 [space] [space] [space]Vul: E-W
 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]H T9865 [space] [space] 
 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]D K [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] 
S J93 [space] [space] [space] C A75 [space] [space] [space] S 7 [space] [space] [space] [space] 
H J42 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] H KQ7 [space] [space] [space] 
D AQ82 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]D J654 [space] [space] [space]
C JT4 [space] [space] [space] S KT865 [space] [space] C KQ962 [space] [space] 
 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]H A3 [space] [space] [space] [space]
 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]D T973 [space] [space] [space]
 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]C 83 [space] [space] [space] [space]

15-Dec-05 [space]1:45:50 PM 
First [space]1:18:00 PM, Last [space]1:49:55 PM

West [space] [space] [space] North [space] [space] [space]East [space] [space] [space] South [space] [space] [space]
 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] 1H [space] [space] [space] [space] Pass [space] [space] [space] 1S [space] [space] [space] [space] 
Pass [space] [space] [space] 4S [space] [space] [space] [space] Pass [space] [space] [space] Pass [space] [space] [space] 
Pass [space] [space] [space] 

Opening lead: CJ [space] [space]Result: Made 4
Score: 420 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]Points: 5.73 [space]
 =======================================
 [space]# Contr [space] Ld [space]Decl [space] [space] Tr [space]Score [space] Pts
 =======================================
 [space]1 4S [space] [space]S CJ [space]10 [space] 420 [space] 5.73 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 [space]2 4S [space] [space]S S3 [space]10 [space] 420 [space] 5.73 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 [space]3 4S [space] [space]S CJ [space]10 [space] 420 [space] 5.73 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 [space]4 4S [space] [space]S CJ [space]10 [space] 420 [space] 5.73 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 [space]5 3CX [space] W DK [space]8 [space] 200 [space] 0.20 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 [space]6 3C [space] [space]E HA [space] 7 [space] 200 [space] 0.20 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 [space]7 2S [space] [space]S CJ [space]10 [space] 170 [space]-0.40 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 [space]8 3S [space] [space]S CJ [space]10 [space] 170 [space]-0.40 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 [space]9 2S [space] [space]S C4 [space]10 [space] 170 [space]-0.40 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 10 2S [space] [space]S DA 10 [space] 170 [space]-0.40 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 11 3S [space] [space]S CJ [space]10 [space] 170 [space]-0.40 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 12 2S [space] [space]S CJ [space]10 [space] 170 [space]-0.40 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 13 3S [space] [space]S CJ [space] 9 [space] 140 [space]-1.47 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 14 4S [space] [space]S CJ [space] 9 [space] -50 [space]-6.07 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 15 4S [space] [space]S CJ [space] 9 [space] -50 [space]-6.07 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 16 4SX [space] N HQ [space]9 [space]-100 [space]-7.33 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 =======================================

[EricK]

I don't actually use Zars but I did look at them for a while.

If I remember, a handy rule of thumb for converting a Zar count for a single hand to a "standard" count is "subtract 8 then multiply by 2/3". So 26 Zars (a minimum opening bid corresponds to 12 standard points etc

To convert two hands' combined Zars to standard subtract 16 and multiply by 2/3. This will give approximate Zar values for various levels of contract.

[inquiry]

EricK, on Jul 11 2006, 03:23 PM, said:

I don't actually use Zars but I did look at them for a while.

If I remember, a handy rule of thumb for converting a Zar count for a single hand to a "standard" count is "subtract 8 then multiply by 2/3". So 26 Zars (a minimum opening bid corresponds to 12 standard points etc

To convert two hands' combined Zars to standard subtract 16 and multiply by 2/3. This will give approximate Zar values for various levels of contract.

If I had to do any multiplication or division, that would be it for me... welll divide by 2 or multiple by 2 i guess is easy enough.. this is why I tip 20%.. .instead of 15%... it is easier for me to mulitply by 2 and move a decimal point....

[inquiry]

More on Zar evaluation and "standard" raises in response to mike's latest request.

Using ZAR's you hear your partner open 1♠ in first seat. How do you evaluate this hand? A limit rasie with three card support? A balanced hand? A good constructive raise? EricK suggested counting you HCP, subtract 16 and then multiply by 2/3. I think he meant add 16 then multiply by 2/3 to get ZARs, so if you did that.. 11+16 = 27 * 2/3 = 18. On this hand, which is actually a bad example, that is short. South has 11 hcp, 3 control points, and the minimum 8 DP for a total of 22. He can get a bonus point for the spade queen to raise it to 23. If partner opened a hand with 29 ZARs, you might have game if all your points are working.

---

So what do you bid? I mentioned earlier that for a "limit raise" I like to have 23 to 25 ZARS (this includes fit ZARS), but this hand is a "bad" 23. One or the side suit queens is likely to be wasted unless partner is strong, and if both or working, our limited 3 card fit might be a problem. Many "2/1" players down-graded 4333 hands and will make a contructive raise with "11 hcp". Zar players tend to do the same, as this hand indicates. The best solution is to bid a simple 2S. If partner has 29 or so ZARS before your raise, he is likely to bid again. 2♠ turned out to be the winner, as the field overbids to 4♠ (note, even if you make a limit raise, at least you will not bid 4♠

Board 5991 [space]S KJ874 [space] [space] Vul: E-W
 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]H JT62 [space] [space] [space]
 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]D AQ [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
S T53 [space] [space] [space] C J3 [space] [space] [space] [space]S A6 [space] [space] [space] [space]
H 5 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] H KQ74 [space] [space] [space]
D T72 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] D J8543 [space] [space] 
C AKT965 [space] [space]S Q92 [space] [space] [space] C 87 [space] [space] [space] [space]
 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]H A983 [space] [space] [space]
 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]D K96 [space] [space] [space] 
 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]C Q42 [space] [space] [space] 

In an earlier thread, I discussed my 1H-1S-3S bid as it relates to ZAR, and said it applies equally as well (actually more so) to 1m-1M-3M. I use the jump to 3M to show a good 29 to 32 ZARs. Stronger, I bid another way. The reason is that ZAR allows you open very lightly. Some, of course view this as a detriment. Perhaps they are correct. But you need a way to slow down the auction. This allows 1m-1M-2M to do just that. As an added bonus, I frequently raise to the two level with three card support, so limiting the direct raise is very helpful with keeping partner from hoping for too much. The question becomes, will 3M to be too high when responder is light (or ultra light)? The answer so far seems no. Both opponents have passed and you have a fit. Even a light responder to 1m generally has 17 to 20 ZARS. So openers minimum of a good 29 gives you some degree of protection at the three level in your fit (17+29 = 46, one short of the ZAR count needed for "the three" level.

Here is a BBO hand to illustrate the point of the limited 2M raise.

Ok, norths hand is probably not much of an opening bid, but come on, we all know people who will open a hand with 11 hcp, two quick tricks. What does ZAR say, north has 11 hcp, 4 cp, 10 DP. That is 25 ZARS and he has a four card spade suit. Zar says you "CAN" open with 25 ZARs when holding spades. Rather or not you should with such weak long suits and so much of your values in the short suit is anohter question. Remember, Zar points are a guideline, you still need to apply your own judgement. But say, for the sake of argument you do open North 1C and south north bids a heart.

---

Now North's hand "zooms" to 27 ZARS, (one additional for the heart TEN, one additional for the doubleton diamond). Still, pretty pathetic, and your 2H raise says so. Notice if you had almost any kind of decent fit for partner and opened, your hand would have easily gone to 29 ZARS no problem (a hand with 26 zars and a singleton would likely qualify, all that is needed would be one heart honor). What about south? He has 12 hcp, 3 cp, 10 Dp, also for 25. The diamond queen and spade queen are of questionable value opposite a weak hand, and for the doubleton Queen, zar suggest subtracting a point. So North is down to 24. There is not much upgrade here, although north likes his club honors but partner hasn't promised a club suit yet, despite his opening bid. If partner is on a max (28 zars) you will creep up to 52 ZARS, which is just enough for game. But the poor heart spots, the questionable evaluation of one or both queens (unlikely both are worth something) suggest caution. Remember, two heart honors (including the ten) in norths hand plus a doubleton would have upgraded a typical 26 ZAR opener to 29. The lack of spots in hearts in norths hand and the simple raise (which also could be three card support), is a clear RED FLAG to South. So at the very most, north should invite game, and it is quite possible north should pass on this auction with this hand, I would playing these methods.

On this hand three tables passed it out, and four tables bid game. At several of the tables that didn't pass it out, south opened in third chair or it would have been passed out. The majority took 9 tricks in hearts, although some took less, no one got 10.

[Blofeld]

inquiry said:

I think he meant add 16 then multiply by 2/3 to get ZARs, so if you did that.. 11+16 = 27 * 2/3 = 18. On this hand, which is actually a bad example, that is short

Erick's suggestion, if used to convert HCP to ZARs (he gave it for ZARs to HCP, which is I think the more useful direction) tells you to multiply by 3/2 and add 8, here getting 11*3/2 + 8 = 16.5 + 8 = 24.5. This is a little higher than the actual total, but I think that's to be expected on 4333 hands where standard count makes no downward adjustments relative to say 4432 but ZAR does.

[inquiry]

Blofeld, on Jul 12 2006, 11:08 AM, said:

inquiry said:

I think he meant add 16 then multiply by 2/3 to get ZARs, so if you did that.. 11+16 = 27 * 2/3 = 18. On this hand, which is actually a bad example, that is short

Erick's suggestion, if used to convert HCP to ZARs (he gave it for ZARs to HCP, which is I think the more useful direction) tells you to multiply by 3/2 and add 8, here getting 11*3/2 + 8 = 16.5 + 8 = 24.5. This is a little higher than the actual total, but I think that's to be expected on 4333 hands where standard count makes no downward adjustments relative to say 4432 but ZAR does.

Well.. anyway, I am not doing any of those conversion... It is not hard to count ZAR points. I suggest it is only very slightly harder than counting 4321 points... Lets see steps involved. By counting the following hand and taking two short cuts....

Axxx
KJxx
Qxx
x

Standard 4321

1. Count 4 points for ACe
2. Add 3 points for K and one for J
3. Add 2 points for Q
4. Add 2 points (or 1 point or 3 points, which ever you use) for the singleton

Total, 12 points, four steps.

ZAR.

1. Add six points for ACE (first short cut, instead of counting control points, just value aces as 6 -- 4 hcp and 2 control points)
2. Add four points for K and one for jack (short cut, king = 3 hcp + 1 control pt)
3. Add 2 points for the Queen
4. Add 13 points for distribution (short cut, total cards in two long suits, plus difference between longest and shortest... that is 9 + 4 = 13. This always gives the same number as the ZARFUL way of multiplying your long suit by two, adding the second long, and then subtracting the shortest. For example 4333, adding two long suits is 7, and subtract short from long is 1, add that, it is 8. ZARFUL way is 4X2 = 8 plus 3-3 still = 8. I do it this way as I hate multiplying... )

Admittedly, the 4th step is slightly more complicated than adding whatever you do for singleton or voids or doubletons (if you do). But it really isn't THAT more complicated to get your starting ZARs. I find it amazing people think this way of counting points is soo much more complicated than the standard 4321 method.

[awm]

The ZAR points for openings and limit raises seem reasonable, but I still think Ben's range for opener's jump rebid is a little off.

He gives the example of:

Axxx
T9xx
KJ
Kxx

This is really a staggeringly bad hand. Many of us would not open this hand. ZAR points indicates that this is 25 ZAR, borderline to open because of holding spades, and that's without devaluing the KJ-tight.

Anyways, this atrocious opener is worth 27 ZAR once a heart fit is found. This creates the following question: suppose I have a reasonable ZAR opening 1m bid, partner responds 1M, and I have four card support for his major. What's my minimum number of ZAR points after adding the appropriate adjustments for our fit? Having a fit pretty much always seems to increase the ZAR valuation. Can I really have less than 27 now?

In general it makes sense for raises to the two-level to have a slightly wider range than raises to the three level, because partner has more room to make game tries (and still stop at the three level when things don't work out). It seems like the ranges Ben's using, 1m-1M-2M is basically 27-28 ZAR (and 27 is probably rare if you really started with 26 ZAR and have 4-card support). Seems like too tight a range to me, and likely to get you too high when partner's minimum. For example:

Axxx
QTxx
Kx
Kxx

If the preceding hand was 27 ZAR, how much is this one? We've changed the basically useless diamond jack to the heart queen (hey it's in the trump suit). This increases the value by 2 points (one because Q=2 and J=1, one because it's in the trump suit). So now we have 29 ZAR. Jump to 3♥? I don't think so.

In standard (pre-ZAR) bidding, a balanced 12-14 is pretty much a minimum opening and normally raises to 2M when a 4-4 fit is found. Bidding much more aggressively than this on relatively flat hands seems over-aggressive to me. Trying to recalibrate for ZAR points, a typical balanced 12-14 with a fit after 1m-1♥ looks something like:

AJx
Kxxx
Qxxx
Kx

This evaluates to 13 hcp + 4 controls + 10 = 27 ZAR, then you add one for the doubleton and the heart honor. That's 29 ZAR. This should be a 2♥ bid, and not particuarly close to a 3♥ bid (another jack shouldn't push it over the top).

So I'd estimate reasonable ranges for:

1m-1♥-2♥ = 27-31 ZAR
3♥ = starts at 32 ZAR

A minimum responding hand in standard looks something like 6 hcp and 4333, for a ZAR count around 15 (6 hcp + 8 for shape + 1 control). If you're 4432 (more common) it's a couple points stronger. So a game force probably requires around 35 ZAR points. I'd estimate:

1m - 1♥ - 2♥ = 27-31 ZAR
3♥ = 32-34 ZAR
GF = 35+ ZAR

[awm]

Some more examples:

What does a 4432 hand need to qualify for a jump raise to 3M? Well we have 10 distribution points, and we're going to add one for the doubleton (that's 11). If we have two trump honors, we need to find 19 hcp + controls. So the following hand would qualify:

Axx
AQxx
KJxx
xx

Basically you need a control rich 14 (or maybe 13) that includes top trump honors. Pushy but not ridiculous.

How about 4441 hands? 11 distribution points plus 2 for the singleton once we find a fit. Again with two trump honors, we need to find 17 hcp + controls. So for example:

AQxx
AQxx
xxxx
x

This is a maximum raise to 2. Adding another card anywhere would make it a raise to three.

Axxx
Axxx
Axxx
x

This is a minimum raise to 3.

[SoTired]

awm, on Jul 12 2006, 12:34 PM, said:

I'd estimate:

1m - 1♥ - 2♥ = 27-31 ZAR
3♥ = 32-34 ZAR
GF = 35+ ZAR

Now we are getting somewhere: Translating 2/1 bidding to ZAR. Many more bids to go.

Now for those that Love or Hate ZAR, you can go check a slew of hands that went 1m 1H 3H pass/4H in both ZAR and std and check
1) How many in 3H were set and whether the other system would have bid only 2H
2) How many stopped in 3H and made 3 when the other system got set in 4H
3) How many stopped in 3H and made 4 when the other system bid 4H
And the biggest question: 4) How many produced the same bidding with the same accuracy.
#1, 2, and 3 determines how more/less accurate ZAR is. #4 determines whether it is worth it.
Another question to answer: Is ZAR better, worse, equal to Std using expert or near expert judgement. That is, will ZAR help intermediate players achieve results on par wth experts using std? So should intermediates place more emphasis on judgement or learning the details of ZAR. Will experts gain from ZAR or will std with expert judgement achieve the same results?

As you can surmise, I am too tired to try to determine these answers, but not so tired that I can't propose the questions.

[inquiry]

awm, on Jul 12 2006, 12:34 PM, said:

The ZAR points for openings and limit raises seem reasonable, but I still think Ben's range for opener's jump rebid is a little off.

He gives the example of:

Axxx
T9xx
KJ
Kxx

This is really a staggeringly bad hand. Many of us would not open this hand. ZAR points indicates that this is 25 ZAR, borderline to open because of holding spades, and that's without devaluing the KJ-tight.

Anyways, this atrocious opener is worth 27 ZAR once a heart fit is found. This creates the following question: suppose I have a reasonable ZAR opening 1m bid, partner responds 1M, and I have four card support for his major. What's my minimum number of ZAR points after adding the appropriate adjustments for our fit? Having a fit pretty much always seems to increase the ZAR valuation. Can I really have less than 27 now?

In general it makes sense for raises to the two-level to have a slightly wider range than raises to the three level, because partner has more room to make game tries (and still stop at the three level when things don't work out). It seems like the ranges Ben's using, 1m-1M-2M is basically 27-28 ZAR (and 27 is probably rare if you really started with 26 ZAR and have 4-card support). Seems like too tight a range to me, and likely to get you too high when partner's minimum. For example:

Axxx
QTxx
Kx
Kxx

If the preceding hand was 27 ZAR, how much is this one? We've changed the basically useless diamond jack to the heart queen (hey it's in the trump suit). This increases the value by 2 points (one because Q=2 and J=1, one because it's in the trump suit). So now we have 29 ZAR. Jump to 3♥? I don't think so.

In standard (pre-ZAR) bidding, a balanced 12-14 is pretty much a minimum opening and normally raises to 2M when a 4-4 fit is found. Bidding much more aggressively than this on relatively flat hands seems over-aggressive to me. Trying to recalibrate for ZAR points, a typical balanced 12-14 with a fit after 1m-1♥ looks something like:

AJx
Kxxx
Qxxx
Kx

This evaluates to 13 hcp + 4 controls + 10 = 27 ZAR, then you add one for the doubleton and the heart honor. That's 29 ZAR. This should be a 2♥ bid, and not particuarly close to a 3♥ bid (another jack shouldn't push it over the top).

So I'd estimate reasonable ranges for:

1m-1♥-2♥ = 27-31 ZAR
3♥ = starts at 32 ZAR

A minimum responding hand in standard looks something like 6 hcp and 4333, for a ZAR count around 15 (6 hcp + 8 for shape + 1 control). If you're 4432 (more common) it's a couple points stronger. So a game force probably requires around 35 ZAR points. I'd estimate:

1m - 1♥ - 2♥ = 27-31 ZAR
3♥ = 32-34 ZAR
GF = 35+ ZAR

Thanks for the comments. In fact, I use to use a higher minimum. In the actual thread where I discussed this, and showed some hands for Richard, I said (see...reply to richards question

Quote

In fact, the way I play, the jump to 3♠ on a silent auction like this shows 29 to 32 ZARS, so in fact, 3♠ is a tiny underbid. This is probably why, for instance, some suggest a jump to 4♠.  Perhaps 29 ZARS is too light for the jump to 3♠ for you and it needs to be stretched a little bit, but if you but the lower limit to 30, or 31, even 32, this hand is worth significantly more than any of those.  In fact, 3♠ is a GREAT bid for this hand if nothing else in your methods is suitable (gazzilli, splinter, etc).

So as you can see, I have addressed the same issue you bring up, what the lower limit in terms of ZAR's should be. I happen to use a jump to 2NT by opener to show a hand TOO good for the jump raise to 3M, so if I was to raise the lower minimum of the 3M bid it would affect the upper of that bid and the lower range of 2NT by the same amount.

The fact is, after

1m - PASS - 1M - Pass
? , or

PASS - 1m - PASS - 1M,
Pass - ? or

PASS - PASS - 1m - PASS,
1M - PAss -

If you have a fit, and the opponents haven't bid, and you can only scrounge together 29 or 30 ZARS, your partner will not be looking at 15 or 16 ZARS any significant percentage of the time. To examine the "expected" points after 1m-1M-with a minimum fit, I did a bridgebrowser search with the following search criteria. Opener had less than 15 hcp. Opener had 4H. The bidding started 1m-1H-2H. Granted, responder COULD respond with 6 hcp, or 5, or 4, or 3, etc, what is actually the holding he has? For this test, I used 2004 hands from the BBO that meet the following requirements, 1) opening bid of 1m, and 2) a raise to 2M with the opponents passing (not they were only forced to pass up to 2H, they were free to bid after that). Out of these 2004 hands examined, responder held:

0 hcp = 0
1 hcp = 0
2 hcp = 0
3 hcp = 0
4 hcp = 6 times
5 hcp = 32 times
6 hcp = 57 times

All totalled the percentage for 0-6 hcp was less than 5% of the time. Responder was more likely to have 18+ than 6 or less. If we look at the six hands with 4 hcp, they had 18, 17, 15, 15, 15, 15, of the hands with 5 hcp, only 6 of those had 15 or 16 zars. Those with 6 hcp, only 10 had 15 or 16 Zars. So only a grand total of 20 out of of 2004 hands had less than 17 ZARS, and to be honest a few of those hand no one in their right mind would ahve responded on. That is less just less than 0.1%

More typical are the hands I started posted in the other thread, in reponse to another request from Richard to show some example hands. That thread was.. post with hands.

That thread shows, just as you predicted, a good number of balanced yuck hands make it into the jump raise pool. Those hands happened to deal with 1H-P-1S, but the principle was the same (actually, after 1H-1S, my bidding is quite different but that was for illustrative purposes related to the thread where that was the example auction) S AQ42 H T9865 D K C A75 did even discounting the diamond king. Good thing, too, as hard to bid game was bid.

Here is the other side of the same coin. This was a hand where the bidding went, at most tables, 1H-1S-2S-GAME... S 9843 H KQ642 D AK C J2 . This hand has 27 ZARS and does not upgrade nearly enough for a jump to 3S. After 1H-1S-2S, staying short the hopeless game the field bid is much easier.

It is the this latter problem I had trouble with when I start out with a higher range for the 1m-1M-3M jump. That is, I ran into trouble not with the jump, which worked out ok (in fact, partner almost always carried on to game), but rather with the wide ranging 1m-1M-2M. Partner tended to bid and get us too high, since I open on such "crap" (BTW the 27 fit zar hand you quoted, I would actually pass, and I thought I mentioned that. According to ZAR it can be opened...).

And I agree, anyone not playing something akin to 2NT rebid by opener as a forcing raise of the responders major, needs to use a higher range for the their jump raise, akin to the one you suggest. Anyone deathly afraid of getting to high with balanced crap opposite 4333 on a 1m-1M-3M would too. I will add here that my 2/1 is such that partner need not respond with 5-6 points and 4333 distribution, but that is another matter. Perhaps my continued downward adjustment of the 3M jump raise which started off at 32 is an overcompensating move to allow for the weakness of my opening bids. And when I say a good 29, I mean a good 29, most 29's go through 2M instead of 3M.

I have one more piece of info, not yet fully explained with my jump rebid too. I open 1NT with 14-16, so the 1m-1M-2M tends to be a balanced 11-13 type hand, or distributional weak hand. Why? As you note, most 12/13 hcp hands with distribution upgrade to the jump to 3M. Thus, 3M is never balanced. If I am too strong for 1NT and I have support, the hand almost always falls into the bid 2NT then raise category.

[awm]

Playing the more aggressive raise style, you're going to play a lot of hands in 3M that I'd play in 2M. I think the thresholds are:

Opener "good" 29 - 31 ZAR and responder 15-21, you will play 3M and I play 2M.

Opener 27-"bad" 29 ZAR and responder 22-23, you will play 2M and I play 3M.

Most other hands we reach the same spot.

It should be easy enough to check who loses more by being one level too high.