[pclayton]

Scoring: IMP

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You rest in 5♥. The opening lead is the Q♠. you draw trump (they are 2-2) and eliminate spades (nothing telling) and both follow.

Now what?

[jdeegan]

Yuck! It's the old 4 opposite 4 side suit that isn't helped by a ruff sluff. Happily, we have a diamond position as well. So, play a club to the jack and hope the winner of the first club trick has the diamond king. If not, I guess I fall back on the double finesse in clubs. Maybe the club nine will fall singleton and help our cause if the clubs are 4-1.

There may be a better play, but I don't see it. The odds on this line aren't bad. 50% that the winner of the first club has the king of diamonds. I can win here even with the clubs 4-1 and both offside - I can stiff RHO back in the lead with no outs with the fourth round of clubs. If the other hand has the diamond king, I am playing for split honors or both honors on my left with a 3-2 split or 4-1 clubs with the stiff nine to my right.

In a tough game, I will get a club honor on my left on the first club lead from a wide variety of holdings. I have to win it. Play the club jack. When that holds and the suit splits 4-1, I can use the diamond suit for a throw in.

Against good opponents, I will end up losing two tricks most of the time. An exception being when RHO has the KQ doubleton of clubs and the diamond king. I guess the losing case is both clubs on my right and the diamond king on my left.

[HeartA]

Small club toward 10.

1) Assuming West plays small and it losses to East, I play DA if East returns D. and get out with another D.
1A) East has DK and wins second D. If he returns a red card, I ruff in hand and pitches a club from dummy, and do the finesse again. If he returns club, I play 8. This line fails when East has DK and CKQX(x).
1B) West wins with DK. whether he returns a red card, I will do the same as 1A). If he returns a club, I play J from dummy.

2) West plays small and it losses to East.
2A) If East returns a club (he is likely to have DK), I insert C8. If C8 wins and West shows out, I cash CA and exit with 4th C and hope I will have no D loser.
2B) East returns a heart. I ruff at hand, pitchs D from dummy and eliminate D (ruff laston dummy) and get out with small C and I am home.

3) East plays CK/Q, I cover with CA, cash DA and exit with D. Whoever wins with DK, I am home.

[pclayton]

I played the same ♣ to the 10. It lost to the Queen. ♦ was returned and I ducked; losing to the King; ♦ back. The hand is no longer makeable, since clubs were 4-1 with the stiff Q offside.

I think its superior to rise with the A♦ as Senshu suggests, but its better to take a club hook before exiting with the ♦.

At the time, I wondered if its better to play A♦, ♦ before touching clubs. On the actual layout; West wins, gets out a club and now east has to give me the ruff-sluff. This play seems very counter-intuitive however.

Note that a ruff-sluff is needed with the clubs 4-1.

[jdeegan]

pclayton, on Jun 20 2006, 08:48 AM, said:

I played the same ♣ to the 10. It lost to the Queen. ♦ was returned and I ducked; losing to the King; ♦ back. The hand is no longer makeable, since clubs were 4-1 with the stiff Q offside.

I think its superior to rise with the A♦ as Senshu suggests, but its better to take a club hook before exiting with the ♦.

At the time, I wondered if its better to play A♦, ♦ before touching clubs. On the actual layout; West wins, gets out a club and now east has to give me the ruff-sluff. This play seems very counter-intuitive however.

Note that a ruff-sluff is needed with the clubs 4-1.

There are three possible lines of play.

Line I: You eliminate the side suits and play ace and a diamond.

Line II: You eliminate the side suits, hook the club, but refuse the diamond return and play ace and a diamond.

Line III: You eliminate the side suits, hook the club and accept the diamond finesse - the line you actually took.

Line I loses only when both clubs honors are offside, AND the diamond king is with LHO. If RHO wins the diamond and has both club honors, he can get out once with a ruff-sluff, but the second time (the first time he wins a club) he is finished. WINNING PERCENTAGE IS 88%

Line II also allows you to make the hand as the cards actually lay. You finesse the club, win the diamond return and put LHO in with a the diamond king. To win, you have to ALLOW HIS CLUB RETURN TO RUN TO YOUR 8 SPOT which is way against percentages. Your overall WINNING PERCENTAGE IS ABOUT 62-66%.

Line III, which I picked at first, loses in all the same cases as Line I. It never loses when RHO has the diamond king, and when LHO has the diamond king and it loses whenever RHO has both club honors. However, it also loses when LHO has Q932 or K932 (the actual holding) unless you allow the club return to run to your 8 spot. Assuming you don't choose this anti-percentage line, the WINNING PERCENTAGE IS 84%

[kfgauss]

jdeegan, on Jun 21 2006, 06:56 AM, said:

Line I: You eliminate the side suits and play ace and a diamond.

Line II: You eliminate the side suits, hook the club, but refuse the diamond return and play ace and a diamond.

Line III: You eliminate the side suits, hook the club and accept the diamond finesse - the line you actually took.

Line I loses only when both clubs honors are offside, AND the diamond king is with LHO.  If RHO wins the diamond and has both club honors, he can get out once with a ruff-sluff, but the second time (the first time he wins a club) he is finished. WINNING PERCENTAGE IS 88%

Line II also allows you to make the hand as the cards actually lay. You finesse the club, win the diamond return and put LHO in with a the diamond king. To win, you have to ALLOW HIS CLUB RETURN TO RUN TO YOUR 8 SPOT which is way against percentages. Your overall WINNING PERCENTAGE IS ABOUT 62-66%. 

Line III, which I picked at first, loses in all the same cases as Line I. It never loses when RHO has the diamond king, and when LHO has the diamond king and it loses whenever RHO has both club honors. However, it also loses when LHO has Q932 or K932 (the actual holding) unless you allow the club return to run to your 8 spot.  Assuming you don't choose this anti-percentage line, the WINNING PERCENTAGE IS 84%

My calculations show that Line III is actually best by a small margin. I think you've forgotten some cases that Line I fails: ♦K and 4 or more clubs including the 9 with RHO (5 cases of club layouts).

Thus, counting layouts of ♦K and clubs in which Lines I and III differ, I get these 5 where III beats I, and 3 where I beats III: the two you mention with ♣H9xx and ♦K with LHO as well as an extra one with ♦K with LHO and all the clubs with RHO.

(As you point out, Line II is substantially worse than either I or III. You're losing in lots of cases where the clubs are offside but the ♦K is favorable and gaining nothing as LHO will return a club if he wins the diamond, and RHO will return a red card and you'll have to take the club hook again anyways.)

In conclusion: tough luck, Phil.

Andy

[pclayton]

I gave the hand to Chris Larsen. While we disagree on some bidding ideas, he is at World Class level in the play of the hand.

He thought JDeegans line III (his and mine) was far better than A♦, ♦.

[jdeegan]

kfgauss, on Jun 21 2006, 02:23 AM, said:

My calculations show that Line III is actually best by a small margin. I think you've forgotten some cases that Line I fails: ♦K and 4 or more clubs including the 9 with RHO (5 cases of club layouts).

Thus, counting layouts of ♦K and clubs in which Lines I and III differ, I get these 5 where III beats I, and 3 where I beats III: the two you mention with ♣H9xx and ♦K with LHO as well as an extra one with ♦K with LHO and all the clubs with RHO.

WOW! There are some cases I missed (It was 3:00am here at the time, but the excecise worked, and I fell asleep soon after). The distributions in question are:

1. Q.............K932
2. K.............Q932
3. Q932........K
4. K932........Q
5. void.........KQ932

both with with and without the diamond king. A total of 10 cases. Let A denote the diamond king with LHO and B with RHO.

In Line I the losing cases are 1-A, 2-A, 1-B and 2-B

In Line III the losing cases are 3-A, 4-A, and 5-A

Each case is approximately 1/64 of all oucomes. In Line I, I calculate winning to be about 76%. For Line III is looks to be 79%. This confirms your analysis. Indeed, unless one views bridge purely as puzzle analysis, it hardly matters whether you choose Line I or Line III. The other lines do seem enough inferior to matter -- a little.

[Winstonm]

Just a thought on this one and I don't know if it has much merit. Another idea might be after the strip to play Ace of clubs. If a stiff honor falls then you could play diamond diamond for the endplay. In case a club honor does not come down, a second club would endplay the player with Qx or Kx of clubs and the diamond K. Of course, this would be rather embarrassing if LHO held KQx(x) or if the clubs split normally with the diamond King with the long club.

I think you played if fine.

Winston