FrancesHinden, on May 10 2006, 10:41 AM, said:
Well, we could play for RHO to have Hxx in hearts.
Win the second diamond, ruff a diamond (let's hope everyone follows).
Three rounds of clubs discarding a spade.
Fourth club, on which RHO will discard, which we ruff in hand.
Spade to dummy. Fourth diamond, on which RHO will discard, and we ruff in hand.
Spade to dummy, spade in the 3-card ending.
We're hoping that RHO is down to Hxx hearts, and LHO down to Hx and a club.
This line needs RHO to hold
xxxx
Hxx
xxx
xxx
we might be able to cater for some other distributions by re-timing the cashing/discarding.
The alternative line is to play for LHO to have a singleton heart honour.
Win the second diamond, king of hearts, heart finesse.
Club to dummy, diamond ruff.
Club to dummy, third club discarding a spade (or over-ruffing), minor suit ruffed in hand (selected according to where we think RHO is following).
AK of spades, last minor suit card for a trump coup.
There is a lot more flexibility in the non-trump shapes compared to the first line if we can only read it: if RHO has at least 2 cards in every side suit we're OK, but only if we get the layout right.
I'm not sure which line offers the better odds, but I bet the first is the one the OP had in mind.
Does RHO need to be 4=3=3=3? This is an interesting exercise, but I believe LHO must have 4+ cards in both minors, but has to have at least 3 spades (else the spade gets overruffed at T10).
So, yes, we need LHO to be 3=2=4=4, and RHO to be 4=3=3=3. While a devil's coup is fun on paper (I haven't had one in real life yet; although I had a stepping stone last night

), It seems playing LHO for the stiff Q or J and setting up a trump coup offers better chances.
It also seems to me that you can combine your chances for the respective devils / trump coup by delaying the critical decision (cashing the
♥K).