[Sonny S]

6♠

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How do You play 6♠ at imps with the ♣K lead?

[Codo]

I try a partial cross ruff: Ace of Club, Ace of H, H ruff, D to King, H ruff, Club ruff, 3 rounds of Spade Diamond to the ace, run D, hoping for the best

[inquiry]

Hand seems more or less straight forward to me, which means, no doubt I have no clue. We have a hopeful 5♦, 1♥, 5♠ and 1♣. We could ruff one ♥ before playing ♠ which could mean down extra tricks when ♠ misbehave, but reduces the need in ♦ from 5 to 4 tricks. Since 7-0. 5-2 or 6-1 ♦ split is not all that rare 38%, I think I will risk down extra tricks to increase my chance of making.

If memory servers me right missnig six to the JACK, the odds favor banging AKQ instead of hook, and I doubt two known ♣ (KQ) with WEST change those odds. So, I win ♣A, play ♥A and ruff a ♥, then play ♠ from the top. Now if I catch doubleton or tripleton ♠Jack I am home free. At matchpoints I would consider forgoing the ♥ ruff, and win the ♣A and paly ♠ from the topm but inthe final analysis I would still play that way as few will probably reach slam, and those that do might well end up in 6♦. So making will be more important than worrying about down one versus down a zillion.

[david_c]

inquiry, on May 3 2006, 04:03 PM, said:

If memory servers me right missnig six to the JACK, the odds favor banging AKQ instead of hook, and I doubt two known ♣  (KQ) with WEST change those odds.

An immediate hook is quite attractive though because of the possibility of a misdefence if it loses - will LHO find a trump return? I wonder whether this might be the right practical line depending on who LHO is. No doubt that your line is better in theory though.

[inquiry]

david_c, on May 3 2006, 10:47 AM, said:

inquiry, on May 3 2006, 04:03 PM, said:

If memory servers me right missnig six to the JACK, the odds favor banging AKQ instead of hook, and I doubt two known ♣  (KQ) with WEST change those odds.

An immediate hook is quite attractive though because of the possibility of a misdefence if it loses - will LHO find a trump return? I wonder whether this might be the right practical line depending on who LHO is. No doubt that your line is better in theory though.

The immediate hook works only if EAST didn't give count on trick one. If he did, the ♠ back kills any chance other than some extraordinarily and almost mathematically eliminated squeeze chances.

[david_c]

inquiry, on May 3 2006, 04:59 PM, said:

david_c, on May 3 2006, 10:47 AM, said:

inquiry, on May 3 2006, 04:03 PM, said:

If memory servers me right missnig six to the JACK, the odds favor banging AKQ instead of hook, and I doubt two known ♣  (KQ) with WEST change those odds.

An immediate hook is quite attractive though because of the possibility of a misdefence if it loses - will LHO find a trump return? I wonder whether this might be the right practical line depending on who LHO is. No doubt that your line is better in theory though.

The immediate hook works only if EAST didn't give count on trick one. If he did, the ♠ back kills any chance other than some extraordinarily and almost mathematically eliminated squeeze chances.

Hehehe, yes I realise that of course. Still I don't think many people at my local club would play a spade back, signal or no signal. But the possibility of a bad diamond break would probably put me off anyway. If I had the ♦T rather than the ♦8 I'd be really tempted ...

[whereagles]

A losing trump hook at trick 2 will look silly when trumps break 33. You'll just go down on a cold slam and that's gotta upset pard The cross-ruff may be a good line, but I can't be bothered to figure out the odds.

Since cashing spades from top makes it about 61% of the time, I guess that's what I'll do.

[inquiry]

whereagles, on May 3 2006, 11:18 AM, said:

A losing trump hook at trick 2 will look silly when trumps break 33. You'll just go down on a cold slam and that's gotta upset pard The cross-ruff may be a good line, but I can't be bothered to figure out the odds.

Since cashing spades from top makes it about 61% of the time, I guess that's what I'll do.

61% is too high, because singleton JACK is not useful for you. Also you have to factor in probably 11 spaces in WEST and 13 spaces in EAST. But 3-3 or 4=2 stiff jack is still better odds than hook.

[cherdano]

inquiry, on May 3 2006, 05:03 PM, said:

Hand seems more or less straight forward to me, which means, no doubt I have no clue. We have a hopeful 5♦, 1♥, 5♠ and 1♣. We could ruff one ♥ before playing ♠ which could mean down extra tricks when ♠ misbehave, but reduces the need in ♦ from 5 to 4 tricks. Since 7-0. 5-2 or 6-1 ♦ split is not all that rare 38%, I think I will risk down extra tricks to increase my chance of making.

Well, the alternative is to ruff one more heart, along Codo's line above. Then you also make when the opponent with ♠Jxxx has 2 or 3 hearts, but go down when someone with ♠xx can overruff in hearts. Since the latter seems less likely, I think Codo's line is superior.

Arend

[whereagles]

inquiry, on May 3 2006, 04:28 PM, said:

61% is too high, because singleton JACK is not useful for you. Also you have to factor in probably 11 spaces in WEST and 13 spaces in EAST. But 3-3 or 4=2 stiff jack is still better odds than hook.

huh? 61% is...

36%, all 3-3 breaks
16%, 1/3 of 4-2 breaks

hum.. oops, you're right. It's 52%.

Well, then that immediate trump hook suddently looks more attractive. It's 50% right off the bat and becomes close to 100% if LHO wins but fails to shoot back a trump.

[bid_em_up]

Try A♣, Ruff ♣, A♥, ruff♥, ruff ♣, ruff ♥, ♦ to K, AKQ♠,

at this point you have 10 tricks in the bag (assuming no overruffs), and if spades were 3-3, you can claim the rest. If spades arent 3-3, you still have the chance that the hand that has 4 spades also has 3+ diamonds to score two more diamond tricks.

If anything is likely to be overruffed, it is the 3rd round of hearts, which may be RHO's natural trump trick from Jxxx. Hopefully, this hand will not have another club to force you with. You can still win his return and draw the remaining trumps (assuming no worse than 4-2).

[Sonny S]

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Thanks for showing interest in the problem.

[Codo]

So if you make it, you maybe did not find the theoretical best line.... but if you failed, you are in good company....