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slam or SLAM? Grand slam potential estimation

#1 User is offline   jahol 

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Posted 2006-April-30, 14:56

Your country best teams competition, very good opponents at both tables, IMPs, you vulnerable, opponents not, you have this nice hand:

AKxx---Axx---J---AKxxx.

Your partner bids 3 diam, what should be seven cards suit and two down contract against completely useless partner's hand (i.e. seven tricks). You bid 4NT immediately, asking about the number of key values (from five) and the answer is 5 spades, showing 2 key values + diamong queen. Do you bid small or grand slam?
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#2 User is offline   hatchett 

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Posted 2006-April-30, 16:51

7 feels percentage although they are no guarantees, if partner has 3 clubs you are likely down but if he has a doubleton or singleton you have very good play
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#3 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2006-April-30, 17:03

I would bid 7. Even if partner has 3 clubs, he will have a spade single more likely than not. (I assume you don't play 6 as ask for 3rd round control.)

Arend
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#4 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2006-April-30, 17:47

cherdano, on Apr 30 2006, 06:03 PM, said:

I would bid 7. Even if partner has 3 clubs, he will have a spade single more likely than not. (I assume you don't play 6 as ask for 3rd round control.)

Arend

and then you go down on a heart lead?
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#5 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2006-April-30, 19:52

I bid 7: I can count 12 tricks and there are many ways to 13: obviously our best hope is he has 2 and the suit breaks 3-3 or 4-2, but I have other chances, altho some of those depend on the lead (as Hannie pointed out for one of them).

Put another way: when I can count 12 clear winners and 13 may be cold off the top, and I am going to be able to exert pressure on many other layouts, the 13th trick usually comes home, even against expert defenders.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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