[inquiry]

Scoring: IMP

From memory, i think vul really was none... but ok

N   E   S   W
1♣ 1♦ 1♥ Ps
2♥ Ps 4♥ all pass

Opening Lead ♣KING

---

A little strech, ok, a lot stretch. 4♥ is greedy, greedy, greedy. What is the best chance to make this one, be specific. I came up short... i am sure you will do better.

[pclayton]

I kibbed this one Ben. Hidden:

Spoiler

(I don't think it can be made with best defense)

[inquiry]

pclayton, on Apr 28 2006, 10:08 AM, said:

I kibbed this one Ben.  Hidden:

Spoiler

(I don't think it can be made with best defense)

After this opening lead it is "cold" (well, that is double dummy, the question becomes can anyone come up with a reasonable logic to find the double dummy line). I think the "good players" have a reasonable chance to get it right.. and by good I mean extremely good. NOTE you know all four hands and I took a while to play it, and you didn't get the double line, so that demonstrates it will TAKE a very world class player to get it right single dummy.

[pclayton]

inquiry, on Apr 28 2006, 07:10 AM, said:

pclayton, on Apr 28 2006, 10:08 AM, said:

I kibbed this one Ben.  Hidden:

Spoiler

(I don't think it can be made with best defense)

After this opening lead it is "cold" (well, that is double dummy, the question becomes can anyone come up with a reasonable logic to find the double dummy line). I think the "good players" have a reasonable chance to get it right.. and by good I mean extremely good. NOTE you know all four hands and I took a while to play it, and you didn't get the double line, so that demonstrates it will TAKE a very world class player to get it right single dummy.

OK, I think I know where you are going with this. You are right, you have to scratch beneath the surface rather deep, although the answer does have a DD feel.

I agree, it can be made.

[han]

I also know the hand so I won't give it away. If nobody responds here then perhaps you should post it as a double dummy problem in the B/I forum .

[mikeh]

After all the discussion, perhaps I am answering too quickly: this line is certainly not the result of 10+ minutes of staring at the hands

Win the Ace, ruff a ♣ with the 10 (or equivalent), cross in ♠, hook the ♥. Assuming that ♥ are 2-1, K onside, cash the ♥ A, cross to the 8, ruff the last ♣, reducing to a 6 card ending, with 2♠ in each hand, one trump in each hand and 3=3 in ♦. Exit the ♦10, hoping that E has the AKQJ of ♦ and that west cannot win either the 1st or 2nd ♦ trick. Now east is endplayed.

However, this seems both too easy to be the type of double dummy solution requiring a truly world class player, so I am sure that it is wrong

[inquiry]

mikeh, on Apr 28 2006, 11:32 AM, said:

After all the discussion, perhaps I am answering too quickly: this line is certainly not the result of 10+ minutes of staring at the hands

Win the Ace, ruff a ♣ with the 10 (or equivalent), cross in ♠, hook the ♥. Assuming that ♥ are 2-1, K onside, cash the ♥ A, cross to the 8, ruff the last ♣, reducing to a 6 card ending, with 2♠ in each hand, one trump in each hand and 3=3 in ♦. Exit the ♦10, hoping that E has the AKQJ of ♦ and that west cannot win either the 1st or 2nd ♦ trick. Now east is endplayed.

However, this seems both too easy to be the type of double dummy solution requiring a truly world class player, so I am sure that it is wrong

That was my line, card for card (I ruffed with TEN).... doesn't work... and technically that maybe the best line (I thought so at the time)...

[han]

Well, you certainly go down on that line Mike .

I think the problem is not only double dummy, you can really improve your chances a bit.

[david_c]

I suppose you could play for East to have only two clubs? Draw trumps via the finesse, cross back to dummy with another trump and ruff a club, then exit in diamonds and hope that West can't get the lead twice in diamonds. Not great odds, but it is possible for West to have seven clubs on this bidding.

[mikeh]

david_c, on Apr 28 2006, 12:43 PM, said:

I suppose you could play for East to have only two clubs? Draw trumps via the finesse, cross back to dummy with another trump and ruff a club, then exit in diamonds and hope that West can't get the lead twice in diamonds. Not great odds, but it is possible for West to have seven clubs on this bidding.

That is worse than my line: my line is equivalent but caters to any ♣ distribution.

There are some intrigung clues: east did not preempt, west did not make a cheap or preemptive ♣ bid, and west did not lead a ♦.

However, none of these clues seem to me to be a reason to not hook the trump, so I am going to assume that the finesse wins.

Okay, a slight variation on the initial line:

a miniscule improvement

Win the first trick, ruff with the 10, cross in ♠, hook the ♥, pull trump, cross with the ♥7 to the 8, ruff a ♣ high, cross in trump (using the last trump in either hand) and lead a ♦.

This assures success if east began with Qxx (or more) in ♠, K or Kx in ♥ and AKQJx in ♦: he cannot unblock in ♦ if I get to lead ♦ from dummy. I do not need to confront him with a ruff-sluff.

Essentially the same odds as my previous line, except that I no longer lose to 9x of ♦ on my left. East, with (say) Qxx Kx AKQJx xxx, is squeezed on my last trump to Qx void AK(Q)(x) void... where if he keeps AKQ of ♦, he is automatically endplayed on any ♦, while if he keeps AKx (or equivalent) he must either let me win my 10 or lead away from his queen.

I should have got this earlier: the key is recognizing the 2 trump entries (assuming I now have it correct)

[david_c]

mikeh, on Apr 28 2006, 08:46 PM, said:

That is worse than my line: my line is equivalent but caters to any ♣ distribution.

I believe I'm also winning when West has singleton honour or Hx in diamonds, as long as clubs are 7-2.

[inquiry]

mikeh, on Apr 28 2006, 02:46 PM, said:

david_c, on Apr 28 2006, 12:43 PM, said:

I suppose you could play for East to have only two clubs? Draw trumps via the finesse, cross back to dummy with another trump and ruff a club, then exit in diamonds and hope that West can't get the lead twice in diamonds. Not great odds, but it is possible for West to have seven clubs on this bidding.

That is worse than my line: my line is equivalent but caters to any ♣ distribution.

There are some intrigung clues: east did not preempt, west did not make a cheap or preemptive ♣ bid, and west did not lead a ♦.

However, none of these clues seem to me to be a reason to not hook the trump, so I am going to assume that the finesse wins.

Okay, a slight variation on the initial line:

a miniscule improvement

Win the first trick, ruff with the 10, cross in ♠, hook the ♥, pull trump, cross with the ♥7 to the 8, ruff a ♣ high, cross in trump (using the last trump in either hand) and lead a ♦.

This assures success if east began with Qxx (or more) in ♠, K or Kx in ♥ and AKQJx in ♦: he cannot unblock in ♦ if I get to lead ♦ from dummy. I do not need to confront him with a ruff-sluff.

Essentially the same odds as my previous line, except that I no longer lose to 9x of ♦ on my left. East, with (say) Qxx Kx AKQJx xxx, is squeezed on my last trump to Qx void AK(Q)(x) void... where if he keeps AKQ of ♦, he is automatically endplayed on any ♦, while if he keeps AKx (or equivalent) he must either let me win my 10 or lead away from his queen.

I should have got this earlier: the key is recognizing the 2 trump entries (assuming I now have it correct)

Yes this line is better than the one I found at the table. Indeed it might be the strongest line available. There in no doubt making this hand is more than a little double dummy. And the logic you might apply to make it is probably flawed anyway. But you have improved on the line I (we) played earlier. Nice.

[mikeh]

Actually, my 2nd line is inferior It is okay if ♣ are 6-3, but what if they are 5-4???? ... with the ♠Q onside all along? okay... I will wait to see the winning line

[inquiry]

mikeh, on Apr 28 2006, 03:01 PM, said:

Actually, my 2nd line is inferior It is okay if ♣ are 6-3, but what if they are 5-4???? ... with the ♠Q onside all along? okay... I will wait to see the winning line

well one can always take !S hook.. .flat out 50=50 if the ♥ hook is on, losing 3♦... so that has to remain in the mix

[mikeh]

Jlall, on Apr 28 2006, 03:37 PM, said:

I would just claim. They usually accept.

Not after they read this

[luke warm]

Jlall, on Apr 28 2006, 03:37 PM, said:

I would just claim. They usually accept.

rofl

what are the odds of mikeh's line compared to simply hooking the spade (assuming the heart finesse is on)?

♠ AKJ
♥ 8642
♦ 753
♣ A73

♠ 653
♥ AQJT73
♦ T82
♣

why not win the ♣A, hook the ♥, draw the other trump, and lead a ♦? there are 20 hcp out, no bidding, so it's safe to assume 10/10 or 11/9 i think... we know west has 5 in clubs and east has 3 in hearts, leaving the ♠Q and all the diamonds... maybe finding out about ♦ is better to help find the spade? also, by not ruffing a club immediately you might induce a club return before west can attack spades

[foo]

inquiry, on Apr 27 2006, 11:13 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

From memory, i think vul really was none... but ok

N   E   S   W
1♣ 1♦ 1♥ Ps
2♥ Ps 4♥ all pass

Opening Lead ♣KING

---

A little strech, ok, a lot stretch. 4♥ is greedy, greedy, greedy. What is the best chance to make this one, be specific. I came up short... i am sure you will do better.

Greedy is right. ;-) 3H rebid is reasonable. 4H is more than a bit hungry. "State of the Match" bid?

OK, E overcalled 1D in front of W, usually a very nice hand, and despite this W decided to lead the CK instead of leading E's suit.

With 9 C's out, odds are the CK is not a stiff. So W has led from KQ(x*). Most likely on this board is KQxxxx:xxx or KQxxxxx:xx.

That leaves (SQ; HK; DA,K,Q,J)= 15 HCP unaccounted for. Almost all, if not all, of them must be in E's hand. Particularly the HK, DA, and DK.

There are 7 D's out. 4card D overcalls are not believable at a good table. If D's are 2:5 or 1:6, it seems reasonable that W would have led a D. Even if they had Hx of D's. With Stiff DA, they'd likely lead the DA and look to their pard for the switch signal. D's being -:AKQJxxx is looking very likely.

However,
a) this would involve some very rare shapes in the EW hands and they went awefully quietly for that.
if the board looked like this, a throw-in or strip and throw-in as others have suggested would work and it does not. Therefore my guess is that W has a stiff D honor less than the DA and did not want to lead it. I'll play for D's H:AHHxxx

My (perhaps twisted) suggestion
Win the CA;
Ruff a C with HQ, HJ, or HT;
Sx to SA;
Take the trump hook;
Play the trump A (preserving the H8 and H6 in dummy);
Ruff a C high;
Play a Hx to the H6 or H8;

The OP implied that E followed to 3 C's, 2 H's, and 1 S...

So now play a Dx from the board towards the DT, possibly throwing =W= in.

If E plays a D honor, and W does not overtake, E is endplayed.
If E plays a D honor and so does W, your DT is established.
...and if W's stiff honor wins, W has a problem.

*ducks under desk waiting for the "that's insane!" comments coming back*