Posted 2006-April-10, 17:02
The auction seems fine to me: other sequences can be used, but the one on display seems acceptable to me.
As for the play: partner's void is, as usual, bad news, since our communication is simply not there.
We have 4 side tops and 5 trumps, ignoring 4-0, which we cannot handle on this hand. We need 3 more. We lack the entries to ruff 3♣ in dummy. We can set up a ♠ via a ruff or two: the lead strongly suggests ♠ are not 3-3 and we can forget 5-1: we ain't making.
If we ruff 2♠ in our hand, we get 3♠, 6 trump and 2 minor aces: still a trick short. I think we need to ruff 3 times in our hand.
At the same time, there is no way to ruff 3 times in our hand without risking an overruff if we leave trump outstanding.
We can get home on any 4-2♠ break if trump are 2-2, and the bidding suggests that they may be: LHO looks to have 8 cards in the blacks and thus 5 in the reds, and is more likely to have 3♦ than 3♥: by no means a sure thing, but it does give us some slight encouragement.
It is also possible that LHO has the stiff ♥J, and we may be able to untangle 12 tricks on that 3-1 as well.
So win the first ♠ and lead a trump to hand. The J fails to materialize so lead a second trump. I see no advantage to which hand we end up in on this lead: we are either making or going down.
If trump are 2-2, it is easy. If trump are 3-1, we need an unlikely 3-3 ♠ break: I'd cash the top ♠ and ruff.
I am not mathematician enough to know the odds of my line as compared to the win ♠, cross in ♥, lead ♠ and ruff ♠ with the 9. They share some common chances: ♠ are 3-3 or the ♥ J is stiff or Jx in RHO.
My line works when LHO has Jx and the other line when RHO has Jxx. I think, but am not sure, that my line has a very tiny edge based on LHO not having preempted, not having bid an unusual 2N, and probably having 2♠.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
1♥ - (2♣) - 4♣ - (P)
4♥ - (P) - 4♠ - (P)
5♣ - (P) - 5♦ - (P)
?