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What is your lead?

#1 User is offline   olegru 

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Posted 2006-April-07, 13:33

Knockout teams.
One of the last boards.
There is no barometer but you can estimate position in match as a very close.

Scoring: IMP

West........East
2!........2NT!
3!........3!
3........4



You and your Partner keep silance.
Opponents using Wilkosh, and give you full explanation of their bidding.

West 2 - 2 suiters, at least 5 cards each, at least one of 5-cards suit is major, 5-11 points
East 2NT - strong request
West 3 - club and major
East 3 - which major?
rest is natural.

What is your choice?
I know problem like that doesn't have correct answer just want to see didderent people reasoning.

Thanks
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#2 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2006-April-07, 13:46

Here, we see that partner had the chance to double 3 as lead director and didn't. This weighs against leading a and with JT9xx of spades, a spade lead looks natural enough. But we know WEST has (no lead directing double) and if we suspect spades too (if this auction instead of 4 is how to hunt for major fit), then LHO is short in clubs.

So one lead that suggest itself to me is A and in all likelyhood a second . I understand this is not everyone's choice, but I want to cut down on ruffs, so two round of seem best to me.
--Ben--

#3 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2006-April-07, 13:59

Hi,

what ever you attack in the spade suit, e.g.
the jack.

I would attack a spade, simply because
the auction looks as if we need to develop
our tricks fast, most likely clubs are breaking,
give responder 2 and you know that clubs are
3-3

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#4 User is online   awm 

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Posted 2006-April-07, 15:52

A top spade for me. I've found that against a 5-5 hand, trying a forcing defense is often remarkably effective. Leading a heart could also easily give away a second heart trick, and we know that clubs are fairly well-positioned for declarer (missing honors onside, 3-3 or 4-3 or 3-2 break etc).
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
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#5 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 04:26

I would also start with A and probably followed by J. Declarer will have to get rid of his s, and if partner has some, he'll be able to control the hand. Depending on what dummy brings I might switch at trick 2 as well...
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
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#6 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 05:52

Spade jack, or if pard seems absent-minded enough to forget having doubled 3 on AJ, diamond queen.
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#7 User is offline   hotShot 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 06:11

A followed by J
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#8 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 09:46

i'd also lead the top hearts, and for the same reason... i hope partner has some club tricks and i hope i can keep club ruffs down in dummy
"Paul Krugman is a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like." Newt Gingrich (paraphrased)
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#9 User is offline   luis 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 10:20

Heart Jack to retain trump control in case I have to switch to something else.
The problem of the heart ace is that declarer might just claim after solving the trump problems I have nothing in clubs so it looks dangerous. With Kxx in clubs for example I would lead the heart ace and another.
If pd has Txx of hearts after the lead of the jack we still might have our 2 trump tricks when declarer has KQxxx.

Luis
The legend of the black octogon.
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#10 User is offline   sfbp 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 11:13

AJ for me too, trying not to think too hard

sfbp
Stephen Pickett
co-founder HomeBase Club, author of BRidgeBRowser
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#11 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 14:25

Ill tell you what I'm not leading first.

I'm never leading a trump for this combo unless the bidding screamed for a trump lead - which it doesn't. There are sooo many card combos where a trump lead from this holding costs. My clubs do not indicate that we need to take out dummys trumps at the risk of blowing a trump trick.

A spade looks natural enough, but its unlikely our spade tricks are going anywhere. I would think my diamonds would help stop dummy's (presumed) long suit. Adam's
comment is dead on about tapping a 2 suiter, but their clubs and trump are breaking well, and I doubt if we will have three chances to tap the closed hand.

Pard didn't whack 3D so I'm not looking there for a source of tricks.

That leads a club, which I'm fairly hopeful that I can get pard a ruff if he has a stiff, or a trump entry and can win the 1st heart.
"Phil" on BBO
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#12 User is offline   hatchett 

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Posted 2006-April-09, 11:53

Quote

Spade jack, or if pard seems absent-minded enough to forget having doubled 3♦ on AJ, diamond queen.


I'm not so sure the lead is so bad. I don't need partner to have AJ for it to be right. What if dummy has KQx spade and AJxx diamond with partner having Spade A and Diamond K, doubling 3 with these honors could easily be wrong. With my holdings in s and s declarer is more likely to be short in s than . A Spade will be best when partner has AQ. If dummy has the A, a lot of the time it won't matter, and if dummy has KQ a diamond will be best when partner has the K.

I think it's close between a and a . The is too passive and a too likely to blow a trick and with any clubs honors onside little upside.
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#13 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2006-April-09, 12:53

hatchett, on Apr 9 2006, 05:53 PM, said:

I'm not so sure the lead is so bad.

It is not. It can be the right move when pard has a number of holdings which he wouldn't double 3 on. But the absence of double does make the diamond less attractive.
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#14 User is offline   Salokin 

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Posted 2006-April-09, 18:20

x

I fear that on dummies good spades some -losers will disapear,
but i fully agree with a normal J.

Salokin
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