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What is your lead?

#1 User is offline   olegru 

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Posted 2006-April-07, 13:33

Knockout teams.
One of the last boards.
There is no barometer but you can estimate position in match as a very close.

Scoring: IMP

West........East
2♦!........2NT!
3♣!........3♦!
3♥........4♥



You and your Partner keep silance.
Opponents using Wilkosh, and give you full explanation of their bidding.

West 2♦ - 2 suiters, at least 5 cards each, at least one of 5-cards suit is major, 5-11 points
East 2NT - strong request
West 3♣ - club and major
East 3♦ - which major?
rest is natural.

What is your choice?
I know problem like that doesn't have correct answer just want to see didderent people reasoning.

Thanks
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#2 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2006-April-07, 13:46

Here, we see that partner had the chance to double 3♦ as lead director and didn't. This weighs against leading a ♦ and with JT9xx of spades, a spade lead looks natural enough. But we know WEST has ♦ (no lead directing double) and if we suspect spades too (if this auction instead of 4♥ is how to hunt for major fit), then LHO is short in clubs.

So one lead that suggest itself to me is ♥A and in all likelyhood a second ♥. I understand this is not everyone's choice, but I want to cut down on ♣ ruffs, so two round of ♥ seem best to me.
--Ben--

#3 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2006-April-07, 13:59

Hi,

what ever you attack in the spade suit, e.g.
the jack.

I would attack a spade, simply because
the auction looks as if we need to develop
our tricks fast, most likely clubs are breaking,
give responder 2 and you know that clubs are
3-3

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#4 User is online   awm 

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Posted 2006-April-07, 15:52

A top spade for me. I've found that against a 5-5 hand, trying a forcing defense is often remarkably effective. Leading a heart could also easily give away a second heart trick, and we know that clubs are fairly well-positioned for declarer (missing honors onside, 3-3 or 4-3 or 3-2 break etc).
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
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#5 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 04:26

I would also start with ♥A and probably followed by ♥J. Declarer will have to get rid of his ♣s, and if partner has some, he'll be able to control the hand. Depending on what dummy brings I might switch at trick 2 as well...
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
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#6 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 05:52

Spade jack, or if pard seems absent-minded enough to forget having doubled 3♦ on AJ, diamond queen.
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#7 User is offline   hotShot 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 06:11

♥A followed by ♥J
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#8 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 09:46

i'd also lead the top hearts, and for the same reason... i hope partner has some club tricks and i hope i can keep club ruffs down in dummy
"Paul Krugman is a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like." Newt Gingrich (paraphrased)
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#9 User is offline   luis 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 10:20

Heart Jack to retain trump control in case I have to switch to something else.
The problem of the heart ace is that declarer might just claim after solving the trump problems I have nothing in clubs so it looks dangerous. With Kxx in clubs for example I would lead the heart ace and another.
If pd has Txx of hearts after the lead of the jack we still might have our 2 trump tricks when declarer has KQxxx.

Luis
The legend of the black octogon.
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#10 User is offline   sfbp 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 11:13

♥AJ for me too, trying not to think too hard

sfbp
Stephen Pickett
co-founder HomeBase Club, author of BRidgeBRowser
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#11 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2006-April-08, 14:25

Ill tell you what I'm not leading first.

I'm never leading a trump for this combo unless the bidding screamed for a trump lead - which it doesn't. There are sooo many card combos where a trump lead from this holding costs. My clubs do not indicate that we need to take out dummys trumps at the risk of blowing a trump trick.

A spade looks natural enough, but its unlikely our spade tricks are going anywhere. I would think my diamonds would help stop dummy's (presumed) long suit. Adam's
comment is dead on about tapping a 2 suiter, but their clubs and trump are breaking well, and I doubt if we will have three chances to tap the closed hand.

Pard didn't whack 3D so I'm not looking there for a source of tricks.

That leads a club, which I'm fairly hopeful that I can get pard a ruff if he has a stiff, or a trump entry and can win the 1st heart.
"Phil" on BBO
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#12 User is offline   hatchett 

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Posted 2006-April-09, 11:53

Quote

Spade jack, or if pard seems absent-minded enough to forget having doubled 3♦ on AJ, diamond queen.


I'm not so sure the ♦ lead is so bad. I don't need partner to have AJ for it to be right. What if dummy has KQx spade and AJxx diamond with partner having Spade A and Diamond K, doubling 3♦ with these honors could easily be wrong. With my holdings in ♠s and ♦s declarer is more likely to be short in ♠s than ♦. A Spade will be best when partner has AQ♠. If dummy has the ♠A, a lot of the time it won't matter, and if dummy has KQ ♠ a diamond will be best when partner has the K.

I think it's close between a ♦ and a ♠. The ♣ is too passive and a ♥ too likely to blow a trick and with any clubs honors onside little upside.
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#13 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2006-April-09, 12:53

hatchett, on Apr 9 2006, 05:53 PM, said:

I'm not so sure the ♦ lead is so bad.

It is not. It can be the right move when pard has a number of holdings which he wouldn't double 3♦ on. But the absence of double does make the diamond less attractive.
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#14 User is offline   Salokin 

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Posted 2006-April-09, 18:20

♦x

I fear that on dummies good spades some ♦-losers will disapear,
but i fully agree with a normal ♠J.

Salokin
♦Quid quid agis prudenter agas et recipe finem♥
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