[sceptic]

Scoring: IMP

---

West North East South

 -     -     Pass  1NT
 Pass  3NT   Pass  Pass
 Pass  

I made a complete balls up here

can you make 3nt and how please

I went 4 down failing to cash two sure spades

I think the club play is the key but not sure how to play them properly

Jack of diamonds lead

[Trumpace]

what was the lead?


Assuming a spade was led, it seems like KJ tight clubs seems to be the only hope for 3 club tricks.


So I guess after winning the ♠A, play a diamond to K. Assuming West wins... you now have to play for ♣KJ tight. If West ducks, you are in soup. Does East have the ♦A and you can then try clubs for 2 tricks (as we have 2 diamond tricks) or go for 3 club tricks... (I guess 2 club tricks offers more chances?)

No matter how you play it looks like down to me.

If the diamond 9 was led and you ducked the first trick... a heart shift might do you in now. So you win (can bear 4-2/5-1 diamond split if clubs come in) and play clubs for 3 tricks.. play ♣A and small.

Are you sure this is a BIL hand? You have managed to confuse me successfully :-)

[Trumpace]

sceptic, on Apr 11 2006, 07:09 PM, said:

I am not advanced so to me it fits here nicely.

If you are not sure about a hand, it is better to post it in the advanced section, especially if you are intermediate:

1) It might actually be an advanced hand
2) You get more accurate/correct responses from the experts who lurk there.
3) Very few experts/advanced players respond to threads in the B/I forum.
4) It could be dangerous bridge to form conclusions based on discussions not involving even one expert.

Luckily for us, the few experts who respond to the B/I threads seem to really care about explaining correct bridge clearly.

[inquiry]

You can't afford to duck the first ♦, so next you want to try to an avoidance play to take some ♣s (you have 3♠, 2♥ and 1 sure ♦) -- so 3 ♣ will see you home and you have "chances in ♣'s", unlike in other suits. So the correct play initially is win ♦ (with the KING to create uncertainty with WEST where the ♦Q might be), ♠ to dummy, and small ♣ to ten, which loses to the ♣ Jack. West is essentially endplayed lead's another ♦ with ♣ king falling you are home. But actually whatever WEST leads, you will try to strip WEST of his majors without letting EAST on the lead and then throw WEST for a forced ♦ lead... but when the ♣ACE catches the ♣K from EAST, you have the marked ♣T7 over West's ♣94. That is 3♣, 3♠, 2♥, 1♠.

[FrancesHinden]

Quote

can you make 3nt and how please

part 1 of my answer:
yes, looking at all four hands you can make 3NT.

Win the diamond in hand, cross to dummy in a major and play a club to the 10 (or even just duck a round completely). Win the club or major suit return, cash the ace of clubs dropping the king, and take all your major suit winners.

West is now down to minor suit cards only, so you now cash the queen of clubs (in case they were 3-3 all along or West has discarded one) and exit with the 4th round of clubs to West (discarding a heart from hand), who now has to give you a second diamond trick.

Part 2
Is it right to play this way? I have to do some work now, but will come back to this later. As an exercise in the meantime, try that club suit combination as an abstract exercise for 3 tricks.

[hotShot]

First of all you have 3♠, 2♥, 1♦
Leads against NT are often small from the longest and strongest suit. You need to ask opps, about their lead 3rd, 4th or 5th. Than you look at the ♦ and you will know that it is more likely that west holds AJ of ♦. So from now on, You should not allow east to win a trick, because he will play ♦ (In fact he can't but you dont know at that time.) and you should never play ♦ from dummy.
Your longest suits are ♣ and ♦, you hold 7 cards there. You may no play ♦ so you should try the ♣. Ben wrote the details already.
Playing NT, there is usually a "dangerous opp", that has a long suit or can play a finesse that will make you loose lots of tricks. You should try to identify which one off your opps it is, and you should adapt your play that way, that this opp will not gain a trick.

[Wackojack]

I was partnering Wayne on this hand. Below is the chat after. Looks like a good hand to illustrate avoidance play.
sceptic: sp
sceptic: should have took my !S hand 2
->sceptic: the way you play the clubs is crucial possible to
sceptic: A!C then 10?
->sceptic: endplay west
sceptic: y
->sceptic: it is not obvious
->sceptic: if you play west for ace diamonds you should then go to dummy with a spade and duck into west
->sceptic: with the club
sceptic: y
->sceptic: the ace then drops the king and you then can finesse the club against west
->sceptic: then you make
->sceptic: interesting excercise there
sceptic (Lobby): I will post that hand see how they would handle it
->sceptic: i bet they get it right at least the experts will

Pity in a way that all 4 hands were posted. Certainly for me seeing the winning line was easy when I could see all the cards. Perhaps not so easy when you can't.

[FrancesHinden]

All this discussion of avoidance plays is interesting in a theoretical sense, but to be honest it's nearly irrelevant to the hand in question.

Let's look at it as a single dummy problem.

When dummy hits we can count 3 spade tricks, 2 hearts, 1 diamond (at trick 1/2) and 1 club. That's only 7.

We play low from dummy at trick 1, in case RHO is going to play the ace (getting us up to 8), but RHO plays the 2. Assuming they play standard leads and signals (of course we check) the 2 is discouraging, from either singleton 2 or a low doubleton, and LHO has AJ109(x).

To get to 8 tricks we will need a second club trick.
To get to 9 tricks we either need a three club tricks, or an endplay, or a squeeze.

Let's think about the 3 club tricks approach. If we are going to do this, any avoidance play in diamonds is irrelevant. Either they are 5-1 and RHO can't play a second round of the suit, or they are 4-2 and they only make 3 diamonds and 1 club.

I believe that the best line for 3 club tricks is very close between ace then low to the queen, and low to the queen followed by low to the 10. Knowing the diamond break may change the odds slightly, but I don't think it does so enough to make low to the 10 right on the first round. The presence of the C7 in combination with the diamond break may make a difference.

What about two club tricks followed by an endplay on West, or a squeeze (hearts and clubs) on East?

For an endplay on West to succeed, we need West to be 2254 or 3154; or 3244 with East having no quick club entry. Any time West has a third heart he just hangs on to it grimly as an exit card. It's more likely that East has the club length than West. It's possible there is some sort of complex squeeze position but it doesn't feel right to play for it from trick 1.

A heart/club squeeze will need diamonds to be 4-2 and East to have the club menace; and even then it can probably be broken up if they don't cash the diamonds but instead attack hearts. Another layout that I'm not going to play for from trick 1.

So it seems to me that the best line is to play clubs for 3 tricks, with a back-up plan of end-playing West if possible. Win the diamond, club to the Queen, club to the 10. My extra chance is if West has KJxx or Kxxx in clubs and is 31 or 22 in the majors (club to the queen holding, club to the 10 and jack or jack and ace, win the return, ace of clubs East discards, cash majors exit in clubs. If he rises on the first club I can cash the Q and A next and find out they don't break).

On the actual layout I think I'll be two off. I will need a lot of convincing that the winning line is actually a significantly better line, and that will include some very detailed calculations on the club break conditional on the diamond break.

p.s. If East has KJx of clubs and manages to duck the first round I'll congratulate him (club to the queen, club jack ace, cash majors, exit in clubs.... ooops!)

[cherdano]

Playing for 3 club tricks must be right.

For the club suit combination, Frances mentioned 3 lines:
1. Ace, then up to the queen
2. low to Q, low to 10 if it lost to RHO, play from the top if LHO goes up with K
3. low to 10; if it lost Ace, low to queen; if RHO inserted J at trick one, lead up to 10 again

I would have thought 3. must be best, so let me check:

Among 3-3 splits, 1. picks up K onside, whereas 2. and 3. pick up K or J onside.

I have lots of troubles coming up with 4-2 splits where we can take 3 tricks...
1. yields 3 tricks if LHO has KJ tight
2. yields same 3 tricks if LHO has KJ tight (note that LHO has to duck with Kx or Kxxx)
3. picks up KJ tight or KJ43 with RHO

So 3. seems best for the suit alone. In the context of the whole hand, it also feels best to preserve the ♣Q; sometimes we may be able to develop an endplay against RHO if we find out clubs don't break after the second round.

Arend

P.S. I would never trust anyone's calculations of the odds of club breaks "given the diamond break" unless there was some serious effort in there, and the explanations include some words about restricted choice regarding the opening lead, likelyhood to lead diamond instead of a major with 4-4 in both suit after this auction, etc. I am not even sure LHO is more likely to have short clubs than RHO.

[hotShot]

If i let suitplay calculate the problem it says that without restrictions the chance to make 3♣ tricks is 26.5%.
Assuming that west holds at least 4♦ and east at least 1 reduces this to 26%.
The best line of play ist low to the Q.
Interesting if you know that east has only 2♣ the chance to make 3 tricks goes down to 5% but the best line is now to play 7 from dummy. This proves, that it is easier to find the best play double dummy.

[FrancesHinden]

cherdano, on Apr 12 2006, 12:57 PM, said:

For the club suit combination, Frances mentioned 3 lines:
1. Ace, then up to the queen
2. low to Q, low to 10 if it lost to RHO, play from the top if LHO goes up with K
3. low to 10; if it lost Ace, low to queen; if RHO inserted J at trick one, lead up to 10 again

I would have thought 3. must be best, so let me check:

Among 3-3 splits, 1. picks up K onside, whereas 2. and 3. pick up K or J onside.

I have lots of troubles coming up with 4-2 splits where we can take 3 tricks...
1. yields 3 tricks if LHO has KJ tight
2. yields same 3 tricks if LHO has KJ tight (note that LHO has to duck with Kx or Kxxx)
3. picks up KJ tight or KJ43 with RHO

So 3. seems best for the suit alone.

You have to decide what you are doing on the second round if you start low to the queen and it holds. What are the odds of LHO going in with Kx?


1. Picks up KJ in either hand and KJx, Kxx on our left (10 3-3 breaks)
2. Assuming RHO will take the king if he has it, picks up Kxx, KJx or xxx on our left (14 3-3 breaks), also KJ doubleton on our left
3. Picks up Kxx and xxx on our left (10 3-3 breaks), KJ doubleton on our right, or 98 doubleton on our left.

That seems to make 1 and 3 identical and 2 rather better. There are also 5-1 breaks.

[cherdano]

FrancesHinden, on Apr 12 2006, 02:13 PM, said:

cherdano, on Apr 12 2006, 12:57 PM, said:

For the club suit combination, Frances mentioned 3 lines:
1. Ace, then up to the queen
2. low to Q, low to 10 if it lost to RHO, play from the top if LHO goes up with K
3. low to 10; if it lost Ace, low to queen; if RHO inserted J at trick one, lead up to 10 again

I would have thought 3. must be best, so let me check:

Among 3-3 splits, 1. picks up K onside, whereas 2. and 3. pick up K or J onside.

I have lots of troubles coming up with 4-2 splits where we can take 3 tricks...
1. yields 3 tricks if LHO has KJ tight
2. yields same 3 tricks if LHO has KJ tight (note that LHO has to duck with Kx or Kxxx)
3. picks up KJ tight or KJ43 with RHO

So 3. seems best for the suit alone.

You have to decide what you are doing on the second round if you start low to the queen and it holds. What are the odds of LHO going in with Kx?


1. Picks up KJ in either hand and KJx, Kxx on our left (10 3-3 breaks)
2. Assuming RHO will take the king if he has it, picks up Kxx, KJx or xxx on our left (14 3-3 breaks), also KJ doubleton on our left
3. Picks up Kxx and xxx on our left (10 3-3 breaks), KJ doubleton on our right, or 98 doubleton on our left.

That seems to make 1 and 3 identical and 2 rather better. There are also 5-1 breaks.

I decided that LHO has to duck with Kx, so I assumed he would do. (Yes I know he won't always do, but it was difficult enough for me as a pure problem.) Aside from that, if low to the queen holds, is there any alternative to playing for a 3-3 break? Only if LHO goes up with the king there is a real problem (but I thought playing ace was right).

Oops I thought Line 3. also picks up KJx with LHO. I didn't see any 5-1 breaks against which we can succeed. Now I realize that line 1. can pickup singleton honor with LHO by giving up on KJ tight.

Arend

[jocdelevat]

Trumpace, on Apr 11 2006, 07:22 PM, said:

sceptic, on Apr 11 2006, 07:09 PM, said:

I am not advanced so to me it fits here nicely.

If you are not sure about a hand, it is better to post it in the advanced section, especially if you are intermediate:

1) It might actually be an advanced hand
2) You get more accurate/correct responses from the experts who lurk there.
3) Very few experts/advanced players respond to threads in the B/I forum.
4) It could be dangerous bridge to form conclusions based on discussions not involving even one expert.

Luckily for us, the few experts who respond to the B/I threads seem to really care about explaining correct bridge clearly.

Beginner and Intermediate Bridge Discussion
For our novice to intermediate members to discuss issues and share advice (and for more skilled players to answer questions .

[FrancesHinden]

sceptic, on Apr 12 2006, 01:22 PM, said:

after winning J D lead with KD I chose to go up to QC losing to the K, then I got the 8C back which I put up the 10 not the ace, seemed like a sensible thing to do at the time, then they returned another club to me which I could not cope with AC winning, at this point I had totally lost the plot and failed to take two sure Spade winners, trying desperately to go 1 down, not the 4 I achieved

I would have played the same way for the first few tricks.

[paulg]

FrancesHinden, on Apr 12 2006, 02:06 PM, said:

sceptic, on Apr 12 2006, 01:22 PM, said:

after winning J D lead with KD I chose to go up to QC losing to the K, then I got the 8C back which I put up the 10 not the ace, seemed like a sensible thing to do at the time, then they returned another club to me which I could not cope with AC winning, at this point I had totally lost the plot and failed to take two sure Spade winners, trying desperately to go 1 down, not the 4 I achieved

I would have played the same way for the first few tricks.

That's Wayne off this board then!