[kenberg]

5C pretty safe I guess, 3NT beats 5C or loses to 5C depending on lie of opponents cards. I suppose 3NT is the right mp bid since it beats 5C when the king of hearts is with W, and has a weak play to make (K and J of diamonds both right) when the play begins heart, Q, K, Ace. I suppose there is an issue of whether, at mps, you shoud try to risk the double finesse (when opponents hearts are set up at the beginning) or just settle for losing the hearts and a spade, and claiming. Since 5C will be making, it seems right to try to make 3N even if it will go down more if wrong.

6C is far from hopeless if the king of hearts is with W but not an odds on bet even then. Mostly I guess it makes when both red kings are right and fails otherwise. Maybe they will lead a diamond. Dream on. But they might.

Appears that at mps, a risky 3N is slightly better than a safe 5C, and 6C is inferior to both.

4S, if you can get there, must be the best bet. Riskier than 5C, less risky than 3N, likely to score an overtrick.

My original remarks, withdrawn above, were wildly optimistic about the chances of 6C.

All in all, I still bid 4H over 3S.

[FrancesHinden]

6C seems to need not a great deal more than 3NT i.e. the HK on lead.

4S is the best matchpoint spot.
It's an interesting question if
1S - 2C
3C - 3D
3S- 4C
4S

is a cue bid or an attempt to play in 4S.
I think, on this auction, it is the former though there are quite a few auctions where it is the latter.

[kenberg]

There are many issues of style that arise with this hand.

Let's look at the N hand for a bit. Holding spades and clubs, I really want to be able to open 1S and raise 2C to 3C. Since S could have less, and still have bid 2C, I would like to be able to pass 4C if it continues:
1S 2C
3C 3D
3S 4C.


On this auction I (looking at the S hand) would expect defenders to cash the AK of hearts and the A of spades.


But would I, as N, bid 3S over 3D? I think I might try 3H. Since, at this point, partner seems to be asking me to bid 3N if I have a heart stop it seems 3H denies a heart stop but suggests some partial values. With no values in hearts I would rebid my spades, trusting partner will trot out 3NT if he thinks that's the place to play when I have nothing in hearts. Now, with a hypothetical Ax of spades and 9x in hearts, I would expect S to bid 3S over 3H which will get us to 4S. With the actual S hand, I imagine S bids 3N over 3H, which may or may not work out well in mps. Eleven or maybe twelve tricks if the king of hearts is right, a good chance of defeat if it is wrong. If people can get to 4S on this combined holding I congratulate them. Whether I and a partner could get to the fairly icy 5C even at imps is not clear.


Frances says that 6C requires not much more than 3NT. So I said in my withdrawn post above, and maybe at the table it is true. W hears an auction where dummy will be producing a source of tricks and so he may well attack with an agressive lead. If W holds the king of hearts then leading either red suit leads to 12 likely tricks. That may well happen. If a passive lead of a club, or a somewhat surprising lead of the spade ace starts the proceedings, it gets tougher. There are four red losers, there are three pitches on spades. If E holds the diamond king you are home, if W holds it you may be able to set up a squeeze but you should probably be suspicious of them allowing it to develop (Say you get a trump lead, E follows, and you draw trump, leaving one in the dummy for an entry to the spades. A spade is now led, the A is taken, a spade returned. You cannot take your winners in the proper order to run a squeeze.). Basically I think you better hope for a red card at trick 1, or the king of diamonds with E. It's not that good a slam.

K

[kenberg]

One could spend all day on this hand. Just for fun:

Suppose that you get to 4S (inspiration has struck). Suppose the lead is a small heart. Now what? Going up with the ace and starting on trump should give you 11 tricks, barring bad breaks. Further, you don't relish playing low, losing to the king, and seeing a shift to a stiff club. But! Playing low loses to the king only when W has the king, and in that case the NT bidders are making 11 tricks, at least. It seems that at matchpoints you must play low. If it loses, you could never have beaten the NTers. Again, the right contract at mps depends heavily on who holds the king of hearts.

[FrancesHinden]

At matchpoints I would rise and take my 11 tricks.
It's true that I'm losing to 3NT played with the HK on lead, but I'm beating everyone in game in clubs and everyone who plays 3NT with the HK not on lead.