hatchett, on Mar 27 2006, 06:36 PM, said:
Quote
Partner is approximently 3154 with 17-18 HCP
Your possible bids are:
a. Pass (I would definitely pick this at mps)
Pass!
You can't be serious you expect partner to have a 3145 17/18 count and you have 3 working honors and you think pass is a viable option? Your hand can't be much better on the auction with nothing wasted in hearts. This hand is a good game.
Kxx
x
AKJxx
AKxx
and it wouldn't be totally shocking if partner had a 2164 such as
Kx x AKJxxx AJxx which is not a huge amount worse than slam on a finessse
It's not as though bidding over 2
♠ commits you to game.
Which game contract were you proposing?
A9xx T9xx Qx QT9
Kxx x AKJxx AKxx
3N requires 4-4 hearts or a bad blockage (about 33%)
On the defense of heart heart (the normal defense vs a game level moysian), 4S requires 4-2 or better in spades ( 84%) AND 3-3 diamonds (36%) or the player with 4 trumps having 4 diamonds (a bit less than 48*24). Total=about 40%
5D requires 4-2 or better diamonds (84%) and clubs coming in (53%)=44%
5C requires 3-3 clubs and 4-2 or better diamonds=30%
6C requires the same as 5C.
Even if you wanted to get to a 40% game, its not trivial to insure that you get to the best game contract.
remove the DJ, and things get worse (4S becomes around 30%, 5D becomes about 18%, etc.)