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Lead against 3NT How wrong did I get this?
#1
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Posted 2006-March-27, 02:17
Another hand from the White House International - this time I was filling in for Scotland, because they were having a lot of problems with illness. You are playing against the England U20s, one of the weaker teams.
#2
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Posted 2006-March-27, 02:20
Sorry, I lead 4th best from my longest without thought.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
#3
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Posted 2006-March-27, 02:24
Things look fairly desperate with nothing in spades and suits breaking well. I would lead a ♥ hoping partner has a 5 carder, or the heart T and declarer KQ etc. Doesn't feel like a hand to be passive on.
#4
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Posted 2006-March-27, 02:48
cherdano, on Mar 27 2006, 09:20 AM, said:
Sorry, I lead 4th best from my longest without thought.
I won't not think more than Arend here !
♥2 (which is likely wrong given that's a problem
)Alain
Alain
#5
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Posted 2006-March-27, 04:16
Heart seems canonical.
#6
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Posted 2006-March-27, 05:12
Quote
because they were having a lot of problems with illness
Hardly surprising if the weather was average for Amsterdam in March.
To the question:
If you lead the ♥2 it seems that declarer wins and cashes his 9 tricks. Looks like partner isn't too rich but we may still beat it by making 4♦ and ♥A, so my lead is ♦K. May cost an overtrick but might beat the contract.
Was that crazy?
#7
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Posted 2006-March-27, 06:42
I thing you might go for a passive lead here. ♠T is most passive and every finesse declarer would take in that suit would win anyway. ♥2 is my second choice, and ♦9 my 3rd. Both red suits might work briliant, but since declarer and dummy don't seem to have a long suit you might want to keep calm and don't give away any tricks.
♠9 might even work better, but partner may screw up with Jxxx...
♠9 might even work better, but partner may screw up with Jxxx...
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
#8
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Posted 2006-March-27, 09:23
I lead the heart Jack as a surrounding play. I expect partner to have Kxx, dummy Qxx, and declarer 10xx, or something like this. Perhaps Qxx-Kxxx-10x?
Why do I do this? I always make surrounding play leads when the question is a forum question (not real life) and a surrounding play on opening lead is plausible.
Why do I do this? I always make surrounding play leads when the question is a forum question (not real life) and a surrounding play on opening lead is plausible.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."
-P.J. Painter.
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#9
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Posted 2006-March-27, 10:20
kenrexford, on Mar 27 2006, 04:23 PM, said:
Why do I do this? I always make surrounding play leads when the question is a forum question (not real life) and a surrounding play on opening lead is plausible.
It would certainly be funny to have a totally innocent hand discussed in the Expert forum and after collecting three pages of clever answers come forward with the solution which would be "lead 4th best of the unbid major, wtp?"
OK, maybe not that funny...
--Sigi
#10
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Posted 2006-March-27, 10:35
Hmm, as I said I didn't think much about it, but once I do Gerben's choice of a diamond has a lot going for it. However, if I led a diamond, I would lead low, as a stopper is more likely to be in declarer's hand than in dummy's (well depends a bit on their style).
However, I don't think it is so clear we need to cash 5 tricks immediately, declarer may well need to knock out a black stopper in partner's hand. So I stick to ♥2.
I don't understand Free's reasoning at all. xxx in RHO's 5-card suit, probably 5-2, screams attack, and ♣Kxx too.
Arend
However, I don't think it is so clear we need to cash 5 tricks immediately, declarer may well need to knock out a black stopper in partner's hand. So I stick to ♥2.
I don't understand Free's reasoning at all. xxx in RHO's 5-card suit, probably 5-2, screams attack, and ♣Kxx too.
Arend
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
#11
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Posted 2006-March-27, 14:34
Actually, although I said this as a joke, I am liking the heart Jack lead more and more. Opener's maximum hearts for this auction is three. Responder's maximum is four. Hence, the location of the heart Queen, if that is all that the opponents hold, is 4:3 favorite on dummy.
Partner is also marked with at least two hearts, and probably more. If he lacks values in hearts, 3NT will likely make, probably through throwin's or squeezes against me. Our best trick source is probably hearts, and the Jack lead caters to dummy having the Queen.
If partner holds the Queen, the Jack lead probably loses nothing, but it might possibly gain an entry to partner's hand or some neat problem for Declarer. If partner holds the 10 and dummy holds Qx(x) or Kx(x), the Jack hurts no more than the deuce. So, it seems that the real concern is partner with the King. Again, the odds favor dummy holding the Queen.
More precisely, Opener seems to have 2.67 hearts. Dummy, however, is expected to haveslightly more hearts, perhaps in the neighborhood of slightly less than 3.67. HCP's seem titled slightly in favor of dummy, as Opener can have an 11-count. Opener also is expected to have more points in spades than in another suit.
Counter to all of this is if Opener will not bid 2NT without at least Qx in each red suit. This seems logical, but I reject that argument because I want to (1) make a surrounding play lead and (2) argue in favor of it notwithstanding any logical arguments against it.
Partner is also marked with at least two hearts, and probably more. If he lacks values in hearts, 3NT will likely make, probably through throwin's or squeezes against me. Our best trick source is probably hearts, and the Jack lead caters to dummy having the Queen.
If partner holds the Queen, the Jack lead probably loses nothing, but it might possibly gain an entry to partner's hand or some neat problem for Declarer. If partner holds the 10 and dummy holds Qx(x) or Kx(x), the Jack hurts no more than the deuce. So, it seems that the real concern is partner with the King. Again, the odds favor dummy holding the Queen.
More precisely, Opener seems to have 2.67 hearts. Dummy, however, is expected to haveslightly more hearts, perhaps in the neighborhood of slightly less than 3.67. HCP's seem titled slightly in favor of dummy, as Opener can have an 11-count. Opener also is expected to have more points in spades than in another suit.
Counter to all of this is if Opener will not bid 2NT without at least Qx in each red suit. This seems logical, but I reject that argument because I want to (1) make a surrounding play lead and (2) argue in favor of it notwithstanding any logical arguments against it.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."
-P.J. Painter.
-P.J. Painter.
#12
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Posted 2006-March-27, 14:39
cherdano, on Mar 27 2006, 03:20 AM, said:
Sorry, I lead 4th best from my longest without thought.
concise
#13
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Posted 2006-March-30, 11:44
Scoring: IMP
P:1♠; 2♣:2N; 3N
I led the 8♦, which was not a success.
P:1♠; 2♣:2N; 3N
I led the 8♦, which was not a success.
#14
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Posted 2006-March-30, 14:33
Magic! Just for once someone posts a hand on BBO where 4th highest of longest and strongest beats 3NT.
#15
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Posted 2006-March-30, 15:22
As I mentioned, a passive lead does the trick without any risk here 
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
#16
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Posted 2006-March-30, 15:27
FrancesHinden, on Mar 30 2006, 08:33 PM, said:
Magic! Just for once someone posts a hand on BBO where 4th highest of longest and strongest beats 3NT.
Nope, here only a diamond lets 3NT make anything else works fine.
The legend of the black octogon.
#17
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Posted 2006-March-30, 19:11
Free, on Mar 30 2006, 04:22 PM, said:
As I mentioned, a passive lead does the trick without any risk here
Provided that you do not discard hearts on the spade run, and that you play the 2H when you win the KD. Almost worthwhile playing it at 1st trick, don't you agree?
#18
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Posted 2006-March-30, 20:48
yes some are always looking for the magic lead
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The opponents bid -
P:1♠
2♣:2N
3N
1♠ showed 5 cards, 2♣ didn't.
What's your lead? How close is it?