Sorrie, Hannie: normally you get 3
♦ when you hold the AKQ, but not when you are 2-2
However, one of the keys is to realize that you DO NOT NEEd the
♠ finesse.
You must pick up the
♥ for 4 winners, and, if you do, you can arrange to be in your hand with
♠8 and
♣x opposite Jx
♣, with RHO holding the
♣ guard. If he held the
♠J, he is squeezed out of it.
I win the
♠ and cash the last top
♠.
If all follow small (I pitch a
♣ from dummy), I play
♥K and low to the Jack, unless either the 10 or the Q appeared on trick one, on my left, in which case, I run the 9.
If LHO shows out on the 3rd
♠, larking RHO with only 3 unknown red cards, I will close my eyes and run the
♥9: if I am playing LHO to hold 4
♥, this is superior to playing the K first, because I cannot stand a cover on the 2nd round from Q10xx: I win dummy, cross to my hand in
♦ and pick up the
♥ but I am in the wrong hand for the squeeze to operate. Running the 9 loses to stiff 10 or Queen but gains if any of the xxx's are stiff: so 3-2 odds.
How the odds play out for assuming 4-1
♥ when rho holds 9 black cards is something I could not work out at the table. Running the 9 doesn't lose everytime when the suit is 3-2, but I would not dream of doing it if
♠ broke 4-3.
BTW, I haven't had time to really think about it, but was it a minor error on RHO to win the 2nd
♣?
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari