Posted 2006-January-16, 11:27
We're clearly going to win in dummy and play a heart nonchalently off the dummy. I hope we will find out where the ace is - it does depend on the auction, and whether we've promised a heart void. Then we're going to run trumps, coming down to this:
Axx
K
x
-
Kx
-
AJx
-
i) if anyone started with 4 spades and 4 diamonds, a pointed suit is now running, so we can just cash them SK, SA and if not good diamonds.
ii) if either hand started with 4 diamonds and the HA, then SK, SA squeezes them in the reds. If the HK is not good the diamonds will be.
iii) if LHO has the HA and 4 spades then AJ of diamonds squeezes them, but if RHO has the HA and 4 spades there's nowt we can do.
iv) if anyone had 4 spades, 4 diamonds and the HA they've been well mangled a trick ago.
v) That leaves us with spades 3-3 and the diamond/heart menaces split. By now, the hand with 4 diamonds has discarded their spade menace. The AJ of diamonds now squeezes LHO if they are down to 3 spades and 2 hearts, but we can't touch RHO (this positional double is effectively the same as case (iiii)).
So if I can't read anything about the layout from discards, emotions, etc:
- Spades next works if anyone started with 4 diamonds and (either 4+ spades or the HA). This is (sort of) 4 cases - two on each side.
- Diamonds next works if LHO has the HA and 3+ spades. This is (sort of) 2 cases, LHO with HA and (either 3 or 4+ spades).
My counting of cases is a bit rough & ready because they aren't all equally likely, but if I'm robot I play for a diamond/major suit squeeze. I'm probably more likely to find out if RHO has the HA (long pause followed by low on the heart off) than the other way round, however, which will only push me towards the diamonds+major squeeze anyway.