First, thank you all for your responses.
There's no particular message with this hand. I conclude that 4
♠ is best, and there's no reason to wait to bid it. Double dummy, NS can make 3
♠, while EW can make 3
♣ or even 3NT. Eyeing the results (on line at www.bridge-studio.org, afternoon of 29-Dec) I conclude:
4
♠ can win in two ways - they can let you make it or they may overbid to 5C. And half the people today will overbid, and if they let you play it, half will let you make it.
Results:
-50 => bottom (they set you in 4
♠)
+100 => 33% (you set 4
♣ or give a trick to their 5
♣)
+140 => 50% (you get to play a part score)
+200 => 70% (5
♣ down two)
+420 => top (you bid it and they don't manage to get their ruff)
(Oh, and Kelvan, do you play in Delaware, USA?)
Andy