[Winstonm]

Scoring: IMP

N E S W
1♣P 1♥ P
2♣p 2N p
3N P P P

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Against 3N, you lead the 4 of diamonds. Partner covers the singleton Jack with the King and declarer wins the Ace. Declarer now turns his attention to clubs, playing a low club toward the King, which you duck, and then he continues with the Queen of clubs from dummy, partner plays a middle spade, and you win with the Ace.

What card do you now play to defeat 3N?

Bonus Question: What card(s) must partner not discard to allow a defeat?

[ArcLight]

If declarer has 5♥ to the AK, then the contract is cold if he gets in. So assume that pard has a ♥ honor(s) or that declarer has 4♥ or that declaer has 3♦.

The other question is would declarer bid 1♥ over 1♣ with 4♥ and 4♦? What I'm getting at is do we have an inference that decalrer has only 3 Diamonds? If so the Diamonds can run, except that pard must unblock.
This works provided pard has 4♦ including one of 9 8 or 7.

As for pards signal, its not low, so he doesn't hate spades. Maybe he couldn't spare a higher Spade? Is it a suit preference signal, ? I assume so, but for what? Diamonds? The highest he can have is a 9, and he has no way of knowing that you have the 10, you might have the 8 instead as well as the Q, or maybe not even have the Q at all. Does the signal maen ♦will run as declarer has just 3?

If declarer has 4 ♦ the suit wont run unless pard has the 9 and is lead to. Or can get in twice to lead 2 middle ♦ through declarer.

I'd play the ♦ from the top.

[pclayton]

I think ♦'s are running but we need to be careful.

Pard's middle spade is neutral and does not convey a direct message, but should convey some indirect inferences. If pard was loaded in ♥'s, I would expect a ♦ discard as a wakeup. Pard could have signaled differently with a great spade holding, so I don't hope to find anything there.

I really wished we played some form of Smith Echo - it helps immensely on hands like this.

I can see 4 club tricks, 2 aces in dummy and the A♦ for 7. I'm playing declarer for a 10-11 count, especially since there isn't a fitting club card on my right. Declarer is marked with a spade card as well because of pard's middle spade and a heart card for pard's lack of a diamond pitch. Getting to 9 tricks looks easy unless we can figure out the diamond suit.

What's declarer's shape? Probably a 4=4=3=2, although 3=5=3=2 and 3=4=4=2 are possible too.

Why didn't declarer lay off the diamond? If you held A(?)(?)(?) with the highest spot the 8 or worse, wouldn't you win the 3rd diamond and hope that diamonds were either 4-4 or the hand with 5th didn't have the A♣. What about Axx? There isn't a lot of reason to hold up, unless diamonds are 6-3, which seems unlikely since I didn't preempt or overcall.

A9xx gives me a problem, and its possible declarer wins the 1st diamond with this combo.

So, I lay down the Q♦. With known length, this implies a sequence and gets pard thinking about an unblock. The spots outstanding are 3,5,7,8 and 9.

With K98(7, 5 or 3) I'll certainly get the NINE, so I will know to underlead. The hardest combos are K975 and K973. Pard shouldn't play the 9 here, and will probably play the 3 spot to show me present count - which makes a cash out tough. K87(5 or 3) is pretty easy, since I will get the 8 1st, and can continue with the 10 to get the other unblock. K753 is a guess too, but we should be able to untangle the suit.

So, unless I get the 9 spot, I will continue with the 10, expecting double unblocks. I'm paying off to A9xx.

Side note: can there be any benefit to ducking the 2nd club too? Probably not, and I don't think I'm finding out anything I can't figure out now anyway. I'm not worried about declarer now having 9 tricks (although: Qxx, KQxxx, Axx, xx is still possible, but declarer should checkback with 5 hearts)

God I hope the hands in Denver are easier than this

[Winstonm]

pclayton, on Nov 16 2005, 02:49 PM, said:

I think ♦'s are running but we need to be careful.

Pard's middle spade is neutral and does not convey a direct message, but should convey some indirect inferences. If pard was loaded in ♥'s, I would expect a ♦ discard as a wakeup. Pard could have signaled differently with a great spade holding, so I don't hope to find anything there.

I really wished we played some form of Smith Echo - it helps immensely on hands like this.

I can see 4 club tricks, 2 aces in dummy and the A♦ for 7. I'm playing declarer for a 10-11 count, especially since there isn't a fitting club card on my right. Declarer is marked with a spade card as well because of pard's middle spade and a heart card for pard's lack of a diamond pitch. Getting to 9 tricks looks easy unless we can figure out the diamond suit. 

What's declarer's shape? Probably a 4=4=3=2, although 3=5=3=2 and 3=4=4=2 are possible too.

Why didn't declarer lay off the diamond? If you held A(?)(?)(?) with the highest spot the 8 or worse, wouldn't you win the 3rd diamond and hope that diamonds were either 4-4 or the hand with 5th didn't have the A♣. What about Axx? There isn't a lot of reason to hold up, unless diamonds are 6-3, which seems unlikely since I didn't preempt or overcall.

A9xx gives me a problem, and its possible declarer wins the 1st diamond with this combo.

So, I lay down the Q♦. With known length, this implies a sequence and gets pard thinking about an unblock. The spots outstanding are 3,5,7,8 and 9.

With K98(7, 5 or 3) I'll certainly get the NINE, so I will know to underlead. The hardest combos are K975 and K973. Pard shouldn't play the 9 here, and will probably play the 3 spot to show me present count - which makes a cash out tough. K87(5 or 3) is pretty easy, since I will get the 8 1st, and can continue with the 10 to get the other unblock. K753 is a guess too, but we should be able to untangle the suit.

So, unless I get the 9 spot, I will continue with the 10, expecting double unblocks. I'm paying off to A9xx.

Side note: can there be any benefit to ducking the 2nd club too? Probably not, and I don't think I'm finding out anything I can't figure out now anyway. I'm not worried about declarer now having 9 tricks (although: Qxx, KQxxx, Axx, xx is still possible, but declarer should checkback with 5 hearts)

God I hope the hands in Denver are easier than this

You are on the right track but have jumped the rails.

Your assessment of the bidding is excellent. Declarer is marked with 10-11 on this auction. He has nothing in clubs and only the Ace in diamonds. What do his major suits look like? He didn't use any checkback, so his hearts shouldn't be 5 long. Partner followed to the first club and declarer followed to the second. Now you have his shape exactly. 3442 or 4432. This problem is not about signalling or Smith echo, neither of which would help. It's about what most every defensive problem is about....visualizing declarer's hand and then solving a problem logically. I can assure you that the solution is easy....figuring out what the problem is causes the headache. If you were declarer with 9 tricks provided the clubs were breaking, how would you play the diamonds when holding Axx?


Clue #1: Declarer won trick one.
Clue #2: Count declarer's tricks and find a countermeasure.

You are in with the club Ace. Now what?

Winston

[Winstonm]

ArcLight, on Nov 16 2005, 01:20 PM, said:

If declarer has 5♥ to the AK, then the contract is cold if he gets in.  So assume that pard has a ♥ honor(s) or that declarer has 4♥ or that declaer has 3♦.

The other question is would declarer bid 1♥ over 1♣ with 4♥ and 4♦?  What I'm getting at is do we have an inference that decalrer has only 3 Diamonds? If so the Diamonds can run, except that pard must unblock.
This works provided pard has 4♦ including one of 9 8 or 7.

As for pards signal, its not low, so he doesn't hate spades.  Maybe he couldn't spare a higher Spade?  Is it a suit preference signal, ?  I assume so, but for what?  Diamonds?  The highest he can have is a 9, and he has no way of knowing that you have the 10, you might have the 8 instead as well as the Q, or maybe not even have the Q at all.  Does the signal maen ♦will run as declarer has just 3?

If declarer has 4 ♦ the suit wont run unless pard has the 9 and is lead to.  Or can get in twice to lead 2 middle ♦ through declarer.

I'd play the ♦ from the top.

Declarer is Alan Stout, current masterpoint leader in this year's Crane 500, and his partner is Don Stack. As far as bidding, they are solid...assume not only would declarer bypass diamonds but would he win the first diamond holding Axx?

If you are playing against top flight competition, you can assume their play is rational - which in a way makes it easier. It is true that with Ax he might win the Ace to try to fool you into thinking he was stronger, but then he would be 2/2 in the minors, leaving himself 4522 and a more likely holding is 3442 or 2542.

All he holds so far is A??? in diamonds and the xx in clubs. Surely he holds something solid in the majors: visualize his hand and look for a way to get 5 tricks before he has 9 when he holds Kxx, Kxxx in the majors - a likely holding for the auction.

Winston

[Winstonm]

Thought I'd post what I consider the best reasoning on this hand:

First, declarer must hold A98x of diamonds else he would have held up - so he has two diamond stops. West's lone entry to the diamonds has just gone by the wayside when the Ace of clubs was played.

So now what happens....if he plays back a club, spade or a heart, declarer can win and establish the clubs, winning 4 clubs, AK of spades, AK of hearts, and the diamond Ace for 9 tricks. Ergo, West has to play on diamonds. What happens if he plays diamonds from the top? Declarer can win the 4th diamond and turn his attention to the majors, playing partner for QJ in both majors - his only hope now.
Say West cashes the diamonds and exit with a fourth diamond. Declarer wins and can lead a spade to dummy and then a low heart from dummy towards his K10xx, forcing a split from partner, and wins 2 clubs, 2 spades, 2 diamonds, and 3 hearts. No good.

The key on this hand is timing and counting declarer's tricks. At the point of the hand where West wins the club Ace, he can visualize that declarer has 2 clubs, 2 spades, 2 hearts, and 1 diamond.....7 tricks....another diamond is only 8 tricks...

West must return a low diamond, giving declarer his diamond trick now, while partner still holds one to return. By playing a low diamond, West keeps the line of communication open with his partner's hand - and now anytime declarer lets either hand in, the three winning diamonds left lead to defeat.

As an aside, the single card that East cannot part with is one of his two little diamonds - they are like long distance telephone lines that reach out to partner's hand. If at any point East discards a diamond to "give count" the hand is over.

Winston