Posted 2003-September-15, 15:03
not a good chance... Missing AKQT9 of diamond, you have 3D (minimum) plus 1S loser off the top. The best play might be feed them 5 clubs, but that causes you to miss what may be the only real chance they can make.
So, OPTION 1, is catch West with 1-5-3-4 or similar with a stiff spade ACE while I still have an entry to dummy (before running clubs). Why play West for short? 1) looks like 5 card heart suit. And if EAST seven spades, they have to be very bad since he didn't preempt (thus no ACE). Odds of singleton spade ACE is not real good.
Lacking that, you hope to catch West with, ideally, something like
S-Ax
H-QTxxx
D-AK
C-xxxx
Then low spade towards the dummy still allows you to make. Win the spade QUEEN then run four clubs/five clubs, and then you endplay poor WEST who has to give you a third heart trick.
All in all, not a great chance, but there you go...
Ben
--Ben--